(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)

The tension between the U.S. and China, marked by constant ups and downs between the two giants, has become a permanent feature of the 21st-century international order. It impacts us all. It must be mainstreamed into our analyses, into the way we anticipate and foresee the future. What is going on, at a deep level? What do we need to understand?

Discover the essentials quickly in the video below, then explore the issue in depth through Helene Lavoix’s article ‘The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension’, which served as the basis for the NotebookLM video. The article includes the full bibliography and references. Finally, see how these dynamics play out in practice with another illustrative Chinese moment: the closing tableau of the Commemorative Gala marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender.

Watch the video

Read the article

https://redanalysis.org/2022/07/04/the-war-between-china-and-the-u-s-the-normative-dimension/

Another Chinese Illustrative Moment

On 3 September 2025 China celebrated the 80th anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender. All eyes were turned towards the military parade, which was indeed impressive, and the related diplomatic meetings. The Commemorative Gala marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender* was as fascinating and meaningful, however benefiting from far less coverage in the West. China broadcast it live on China Central Television (CCTV.com), the national television broadcaster of China. The video can still be watched on the Youtube Channel of the South China Morning Post (SCMP):

In the framework of the current normative war, the closing tableau of the gala (starting 1:30:28), titled “Singing and dancing with a shared destiny” (歌舞命运与共), is particularly important. It stresses China’s vision for the future and how China perceives its own role in promoting this shared destiny of peace for the world.

The major symbol used is the flight of doves, which universally evokes peace. We may also wonder if the flowers (stage wall and side curtains, and carried by the children) are not a subtle reference to the thought of Xi Jinping when he proposed the Global Civilization Initiative (全球文明倡议 – quán qiú wén míng chàng yì):

“A single flower does not make spring, while one hundred flowers in full blossom bring spring to the garden [“一花独放不是春,百花齐放春满园。”]. As the future of all countries are closely connected, tolerance, coexistence, exchanges and mutual learning among different civilizations play an irreplaceable role in advancing humanity’s modernization process and making the garden of world civilizations flourish. [在各国前途命运紧密相连的今天,不同文明包容共存、交流互鉴,在推动人类社会现代化进程、繁荣世界文明百花园中具有不可替代的作用。]

Here, I wish to propose the Global Civilization Initiative. [在此,我愿提出全球文明倡议。]”

Xi Jiping, “Join Hands on the Path Towards Modernization”, 15 March 2023, MOFA, PRC, full text of the keynote speech.

Finally, the song “Shared Destiny” (KuGou Music) spells out and reinforces the message (see lyrics below).

China thus goes on asserting its strength and power – the military parade, while promoting an enticing international and civilizational goal presented in a bewitching form – the gala.

Two different visions of the world order, everyday reasserted, with two champions, the U.S. and China, are thus at war, more than ever. Let us not be collateral damages in this clash of titans.


Notes

*The full title of the Commemoration in English is:

“Justice Will Prevail
A Cultural Performance Commemorating the 80th Anniversary of the Victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.”

**The lyrics of the final song of the Chinese Gala “Justice Will Prevail” are (references from “命运与共” (Shared Destiny), Baidu):

肤色不同 同样仰望星河
眼眸不同 泪水一样清澈
命运有千万种 在经纬线里交错
心跳与共 祈愿同一个梦
愿那夜空 安宁万家灯火
孩子不再 躲在废墟角落
故事有千万种 喜和悲与我们相通
呼吸与共 同舟破浪乘风
信那未来 是一首共同唱响的歌
唱来路风起云涌 致远方海阔天空
信那未来 是一首并肩同行的歌
从日出东方的红 到无垠宇宙苍穹
我们笑容与共 世界善意与共
我们患难与共 前路梦想与共
我们笑容与共 世界善意与共
我们患难与共 前路梦想 与共
信那未来 是一首共同唱响的歌
唱来路风起云涌 致远方海阔天空
信那未来 是一首并肩同行的歌
从日出东方的红 到无垠宇宙苍穹
愿你我脚步同歌 去追逐更高的梦

Different skin tones, yet gazing at the same starry sky
Different eyes, yet tears equally clear
A thousand destinies intertwine along the lines of latitude and longitude
Heartbeats beat in unison, praying for the same dream
May the night sky be peaceful, with lights shining in every home
Children no longer hide in the corners of ruins
A thousand stories unfold, joy and sorrow resonate with us
Breathing in unison, sailing together through the waves
Believe in the future, a song we sing together
Singing of the turbulent road we’ve traveled, reaching for the vast expanse of the sea and sky
Believe in the future, a song we walk side by side
From the red of the sunrise in the east to the boundless universe
We share smiles, we share goodwill in the world
We share hardships, we share dreams for the future
We share smiles, we share goodwill in the world
We share hardships, we share dreams for the future
Believe in the future, a song we sing together
Singing of the turbulent road we’ve traveled, reaching for the vast expanse of the sea and sky
Believe in the future, a song we walk side by side
From the red of the sunrise in the east To the boundless universe, may our footsteps sing together as we chase even higher dreams.

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.