Sense-Making for Geopolitics and the Future: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning, Risk Management
As you understood, our concerns, research and publications are located at the intersection of geopolitics and international security on the one hand, anticipation of the future and uncertainty on the other. Furthermore we aim at being practical, i.e. create actionable strategic foresight and early warning.
To try to make it easier for you to meet your objectives in a complex environment, we offer here an introduction and then two orientations to navigate the website.
Introduction
As an introduction, we suggest three of our publications:
We briefly present the field, its evolution and some of the challenges faced in the need for strategic foresight and early warning. This article also lays the foundation for our philosophy.
Because we realised over the years and with experience that our field is sometime poorly understood, we tried to find ways to make it easier to understand. We thus offer you a concise FAQ on the topic.
You can also watch our video on “What is political risk” that will bring light to what we do compared with a general approach to “political risk”.
Two options
You can read articles from each section, of course!
Practice and Learn Methodology and Tools
If you are interested in learning more about how to do strategic foresight and early warning then you can read our articles from our section on methodology.
Dive in Geopolitical Issues and Stakes
If you are rather interested in geopolitics and international security, in understanding the most pressing issues and what lies ahead, then head to our section focused on geopolitical issues and stakes.
There, you will find all our articles, publications and research grouped by main themes and issues. You will find in-depth analyses, different perceptions on various topics. We also tell you what we currently focus upon, what is on our watch. We deliver warnings, etc.
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Our latest articles
- An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars 6
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) From 1 September to 16 September 22, Vladimir Putin, President of the Federation of Russia, presided the Russian military exercises Vostok 2022. Besides the Russian military, the exercise gathered troops from 14 countries, including India and China (Arang Shidore, “Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated”, Responsible Statecraft, …Continue reading “An Excluded Russia? Not for Asia – Anthropocene Wars 6”
- An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …Continue reading “An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia”
- The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however …Continue reading “The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension”
- The American National Interest
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Do the United States still consider France to be their ally? We have to ponder this question because of the submarine contract signed between France and Australia, and broken in September 2021, to the benefit of the U.S.. If a country takes 35 billion euros from you, possibly revalued to 55 … - Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)
The War in Ukraine and the Great Amplification Since the start of the Russian offensive on 24 February 2022, the raging war has triggered an amplification of the tension on global food and energy prices. The price trends for oil, gas, coal and agricultural products were already on the rise because of the Western “post” …Continue reading “Food Security: China-Russia and Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (4)”
- Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli on a photo by Francesco Ungaro) The war(*) in Ukraine is hastening changes in international politics in many different ways. The possibility to see the conflict morphing into World War III acts as a convincing spur for continuing efforts at understanding and adapting. Concerned and informed actors are thus trying to …Continue reading “Information Warfare and the War in Ukraine”
- War in Ukraine, Megadrought and the Coming Global Food Crisis – Anthropocene Wars (3)
The War in Ukraine as a Perfect Storm The war in Ukraine triggers a global whirlwind involving energy and food crisis. The latter is quite singular, because it combines the consequences of the war on the global agricultural system with massive extreme weather events, such as the U.S. midwestern megadrought. War as global disruption Indeed, … - Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of March 2022, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised its fourth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. It is part of its programme on the “management of social conflict.” This time, we set up with the management …Continue reading “Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia”
- Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)
A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …Continue reading “Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)”