Category Archives: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues

2213 – 2218 EVT – Tragic events

Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.

The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ….

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Energy Security: a Bibliography for Strategic Foresight and Warning

A Bibliography Bibliography on energy security for strategic foresight and warning (not exhaustive) built while working on energy issues, notably as senior scientific adviser for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the Deputy Director for Energy/Environmental Security (2008-2010). Energy security and foresight Bray, David A., Sean Costigan, Keith A. Daum, Helene Lavoix, Elizabeth L. Malone, and Chris Pallaris, “Perspective: Cultivating Strategic Foresight for Energy and Environmental Security,” Cambridge Journals, Environmental Practice, volume 11, issue 03, Septembre 2009. Lavoix, Helene, Why Strategic Foresight and Warning? The case of Energy Security, (slides), RSIS, Public lecture, NTU, Singapore, 19th April 2010 Millennium Project, 2020 Global Energy Scenarios, 2008. Shell Scenarios, Looking ahead. Energy Demand Bartis, James T. and Lawrence Van Bibber, Alternative Fuels for …

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2213 – 2218 EVT – Involution (Mamominarch)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement as policies the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission: a programme of drastic reduction of public expenses over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, the policies do not lead to a current account surplus as expected nor to a reimbursement of public debt but to a rising current account deficit as well as to the withering away of the nation’s income. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of …

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Building upon the U.S. Intelligence Community “Global Water Security” Assessment

Considering any issue in terms of strategic foresight and warning for national security demands, first and foremost, a minimal understanding of the issue itself, which is notably obtained by reaching out to experts in the related fields, as done by the ICA. This is true for water as for any other issue. Without this initial …

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Global Water Security: a US Intelligence Community Assessment

The ODNI has released the unclassified version of the latest US Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security (Feb 2012). Very interesting! For thoughts on the ICA see Building upon the 2012 “Global Water Security” IC Assessment. Click on the image below to download the ICA in pdf.

2213 – 2218 EVT – A Current Account Surplus? Think again! (Mamominarch)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies have transformed the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission into policies. They have thus started implementing the programme of drastic reduction of public expenses through privatization and outsourcing, transfer of responsibilities to local administrations and increased reliance on The Regional Union, accompanied by a temporary increase in income and consumption taxes. The first months of reforms have been successful and the situation appears to improve. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is …

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Featured Images, Symbols & Foresight Product: the Example of The Chronicles of Everstate

(updated 17 April 2012) When an image is featured and is meant to represent the totality of a foresight or anticipatory product, or a large section of it, it must capture the gist of the product. Symbols and symbolism are then crucial to transmit messages. This importance of symbols should anyway be considered for any use of image (as well as when developing a scenario narrative, for example when choosing names). This will be exemplified here with the Chronicles of Everstate. The image aims at capturing symbolically the features of the contemporary (early 21st century) modern nation-state: It, of course, is an heir to Hobbes Leviathan. However, compared with the original image, the head of the sovereign is not displayed …

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2212-2213 EVT – Implementing the Mamominarch conclusions

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, Everstate’s governing authorities decide to follow the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission that recommend to drastically reduce state expenditures. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading – methodological or research note at the bottom of the post). The Mamominarch conclusions become policy All governing bodies thus adopt the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission. New laws are enacted when needed, which is easily done as the major parties seating in …

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Anonymous: a new political force?

Anonymous: a new political force? Anonymous, the Anonymous movement, idea or “Internet meme,” to use Wikipedia characterisation, has become an increasingly important actor on the global political scene, which cannot be ignored anymore. It is, however, rarely seen as a political actor, despite Anonymous’ evolution, as Al Jazeera’s excellent timeline makes quite clear, as Quinn Norton for Wired details …

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