Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. As a result, tension rises relatively uniformly while grievances increase heterogeneously. Inability to answer this multiform situation leads to a new political mobilisation, besides the classical old parties, proponents of Mamominarch: movements for local independence and direct membership in the Regional Union, including a powerful Movement for …
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing.By 2218 EVT, the result is involution, with a fragilised governance including and implying the rise of lawlessness domestically, an abandoned mastery over international security, an inefficient economy and, as consequence, a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The first set of tragic events – a tornadoes outbreak followed by a heat wave – that hits the West of Everstate soon becomes a complex catastrophe with dramatic direct and indirect impacts.
(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading).
Faced with destruction and a difficult and very slow reconstruction, Westerners are definitely dissatisfied with the way their political authorities, entrusted with the mission to ensure their security, have dealt with the complex catastrophe that befell them. Many are forced to leave as their survival is threatened and start moving towards other areas. However, they nevertheless expect recognition of their hardship, help and solidarity when they arrive somewhere else.
Yet, nothing is organised nationally. The way they are greeted varies greatly according to areas and even towns. In some cities, local authorities engineer emergency support for newcomers in the name of national solidarity, while everything is done to help them find temporary shelter and work. In others, only family network, when they exist, are active, and the refugees are not only ignored, but also rejected as they are seen as swelling the mass of the poor, homeless and unemployed, as potential criminals, as people lowering wages when they end up taking any job to survive. In those areas, as the refugees remind inhabitants of a selfishness they do not want to confront and of problems they want to deny, rejection hardens quickly.
All Everstatans, finally, feel unjustly treated, one way or another, which only feeds grievances. Those multiply as central political authorities do not acknowledge problems, give no recognition, and do nothing in a timely way. The victims are not supported in those areas where they are best welcomed and those who help them are left to their own device and funding, while the central administrative machine and policies continue as if nothing had happened, sometimes thus enhancing difficulties. Elsewhere fear is not assuaged, its roots are not dealt with. Notably, no one wants to face the fact that the refugees have become a disturbing symbol of a dysfunctional and outdated model of socio-political organisation, when so much hope had been invested in the Mamominarch system.
Over the summer, oil prices surge, with some spikes even reaching 200$ a barrel, as a result of renewed international tensions in the Middle East. This trend intensifies the overall situation in Everstate, as for most Everstatans, save the richest and best connected, life becomes increasingly difficult. Indeed, whatever the efforts the people have previously made, the result of their actions to improve or to the least stabilise their life is reduced to naught by the severe disturbance implied by the energy price. As, furthermore, the food produced in Everstate has become suspect – and sometimes rightly so – because of the industrial disasters, many Everstatans feel that they are left with only two bad choices: either starve because they cannot afford imported food, or kill themselves with polluted food.
The legitimacy of the Mamominarch system is now overtly questioned, and all remember that the governing bodies that decided to convene the Mamominarch commission were already facing similar problems, which only contributes to further de-legitimize the system.
The rising tension spreads throughout the whole country. If all have grievances, those accumulated complaints tend to coalesce and join along different fault lines according to areas and groups, because there is not anymore one national situation but many, notably as a result of the devolution (spatial variations) and of the privatizations (end of the concept and practice of public good). With time, events and a large variety of responses, the conditions have grown to be very diverse.
External observers are surprised when, building on the tension existing in 2212 EVT, then on those that simmered over the past five years of Mamominarch system, and triggered by the recent events, a Movement for the Independence of the Trueland, a region covering the South-East of Everstate (notably the mouth of the river and the seaside), is created and rapidly takes off. The usual inflow of money that used to bring wealth, and, during the last years, release, to the country with tourism is abruptly halted by the complex catastrophe, as tourists fear coming to Everstate. The inhabitants of the seaside area being relatively richer were thought as much calmer and less likely to mobilise politically. But this is without considering the sudden relative deprivation they feel, which is, furthermore, from their point of view, none of their making. Other small areas, sometimes only cities, follow suit and also start voicing their desire for local independence and direct membership to the Regional Union.
Yet, not all citizens of those areas share the same views, and those who are dissatisfied with the two main political parties, spearheaded by Occupy Everstate, respond by creating a Movement for the Renewal of Everstate, which is soon joined by large parts of the Westerners, by the refugees and many in those towns that put solidarity first. The CEO of Evernet, as reported by international media, decides to join the movement she sees as prefiguring the future. She offers the technical support of Evernet, providing even funding and sometimes directly hardware to the Renewers, as they are soon called, when those cannot afford anymore access to social networks considering the degraded overall situation.
Meanwhile, Novstate and its friends companies make sure they remain officially neutral, offering their services to all, while they continue promoting the system that made their fortune.
Many of those joining the new Movements did not belong, previously, to any political party. They had even often abstained during previous elections. Yet, the two main parties, the conservative and the social-democrat, with still their headquarters in the capital, start losing sympathisers. The classical elite groups remain faithful to the two traditional parties, which have created the Mamominarch system, and start worrying about the evolution of the situation. First, the Western quagmire has marred the international ideological standing of the Mamominarch system, which seriously limits the opportunities offered to the elite.
Then, those new Movements imply a loss of power for the two parties that constitute the usual political framework of the elite, indeed the way its members think and live. The elite groups initially try to dismiss the new Movements because they do not enter the familiar right/left, conservative/social-democrat way to think and thus, certainly, do not correspond to anything serious… yet the political mobilisation is there, as well as the grievances and the tension and altogether they completely deny everything the elite has ever believed in and stood for. The new Movements have not even tried to include them.
The Renewers then pick up on a report according to which a terrorist group has infiltrated a Novcybio laboratory in its home country a few weeks ago, stolen some deadly pathogens and manipulated others, mixing them with some of the genes experimented. Considering the existence of Novcybio Everstate, the news goes viral through social networks, among Renewers initially.
While preparing the bibliography on energy security foresight, I was wondering if it would be useful to also apply a visually appealing approach to bibliographies, which would then be conceptualized as a product. As usual, there is no simple answer to this question, and if the classical bibliography will most probably have to be kept for a while, Pearltrees also appears as a perfect bibliographic tool. Inevitable classical bibliography Because delivery of product must consider both the product’s material support and the recipient or customer, then the traditional way to write a bibliography will probably have to be kept for some time. Indeed, for anything that uses paper and print as support, the usual, alphabetical bibliography is best. It is …
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Any type of similar natural events and catastrophes can be imagined to strike countries, from pandemic to floods, snowstorms, cyclones, fire, etc.
Last episode’s summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement as policies the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission: a programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing.By 2218 EVT, the result is involution, with a fragilised governance including and implying the rise of lawlessness domestically, an abandoned mastery over international security, an inefficient economy and, as consequence, a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. A series of tragic events then strike Everstate.
(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading).
The tornadoes outbreak that hits the Western part of Everstate in May, as well as the other tragic events of the year, results of global pressures accumulated over the years, including in terms of ecological setting.*
Two of those tornadoes are deadly. They are rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale and have a very long track reaching almost 70km.
Hundreds of power transmission towers are taken down, and, as a result, electricity outage occurs in a large part of Everstate’s West.** The scope of civilian disaster is huge. So much of the population is hit. To the fatalities, casualties and people unaccounted for, must be added people finding themselves overnight without shelter. Furthermore, as all communications are severed, evaluation and first emergency is terribly difficult. The tornadoes also hit two industrial sites in this recently industrialised part of Everstate. A corner of the dam of a reservoir containing liquid waste collapses, releasing toxic muds. First, the wave of mud reaches a nearby small town, miraculously spared by the tornadoes and then spills inexorably to reach the Everstatan main river.***
Not far from there, one of the storages of an agrochemical company is ground to pieces. Highly toxic levels of pesticides are released in the air.****
Panic presides to the outbreak and to the first days. Then comes the extreme difficulty of dealing with “complex catastrophes.” In the words of Paul N. Stockton, the assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs,
“Complex catastrophes differ from normal disasters in two ways. First, the scale of destruction is vastly greater… Second,… complex catastrophes may create cascading, region-wide failures of critical infrastructure, starting with the disruption of the commercial electric power grid….This loss of power could create cascading effects on communications and other critical infrastructure. From a public safety perspective, the most immediate concern might be the impact on municipal water systems, .. Transportation infrastructure could be degraded as well; gas and diesel fuel pumps, for example, depend on electric power to function. While many hospitals and other facilities critical to disaster response efforts have backup diesel-powered generators, we anticipate few will have sufficient fuel on hand to offset power outage lasting weeks to months, and that companies responsible for resupplying them could face a radical mismatch between supply and demand.”
Locally, as the Western areas have never known any natural catastrophe, are not located in a seismic zone, and are not considered as sensitive defense-wise, no preparedness for any natural or even man-made emergency exists.
Novstate, which is contracted for the management of crisis and emergency response nationally, should have had at least the beginning of an emergency plan ready, and should start implementing it. However, it is without counting with a few crucial factors. First, the electricity outage considerably slows and delays all communications, evaluations, transport and logistics, while rapidly increasing hazards to the population as hospitals, notably, will soon run out of fuel for their backup diesel-powered generators. Second, Novstate has not planned for any type of such multi-risk emergencies spreading on large areas, both urban and rural. It has mainly focused on terrorist attacks in the major Everstatan cities. Finally, the involvement of many different companies responsible for so many types of infrastructures, including hospitals, and in charge of various outsourced services creates a highly complex picture of independent intervening actors that have to be identified, organised, and put to work on an emergency, solidarity and not for-profit basis. Furthermore, Novstate’s mandate includes no specific authority to act in such a way. Meanwhile, the political authorities who do have this legitimacy have now to do with a reduced Everstatan central administrative staff, soon overwhelmed by a catastrophe of a type and scale never envisioned.
Finally, after 4 days, prompted by international calls from his counterparts and from the Regional Union, Everstate’s Prime Minister finally asks for international help. Meanwhile, thousands of Everstatans lost their lives; the Everstatan main river has become severely polluted, toxic mud spreading towards the agricultural South and the touristic mouth of the river. The toxic dust has spread with the very strong winds and the full extent of damages will only be discovered with time, but have created health hazards for human beings, biodiversity and most probably impacted soil and water.
Again, the initial absence of overall coordination runs contrary to the efficiency of the assistance, and the Regional Union, incorporating in the lead team Everstatan regional civil servants to respect Everstate’s sovereignty and the Novstate executive responsible for emergencies, has to firmly take over.
Thanks to international help, the crisis is finally contained, but it takes a few months before such services as electricity, which were previously taken for granted, are fully reestablished. Worse damages such as epidemics are avoided. Yet, the terrible environmental impacts are there. Furthermore, the drought that follows dries up the river helping spread the toxic mud changed in dust over even larger areas of the country.
The Everstatan quagmire has highlighted the high difficulty of complex catastrophes’ management and intervention, notably in a context of privatised infrastructures and outsourcing. It is reviewed and criticised internationally by multiple instances. As a result, Everstate’s model begins to be seriously questioned, which has indirect negative effects on the export of services, as the Everstatan Mamominarch-type of knowledge and skills is now considered as inadequate. Yet, Novstate manages to turn the tragedy to its advantage, and can now sell its unique expertise.
The overall direct and indirect cost of the tornadoes outbreak is very high. Security has definitely not been ensured and, seeing the slow rate of reconstruction, the absence of hope of much help considering the already overall difficult situation of Everstate before the tornadoes, Western refugees start moving towards other areas.
* According to Munich-Re, “A sequence of devastating earthquakes and a large number of weather-related catastrophes made 2011 the costliest year ever in terms of natural catastrophe losses….With some 820 loss-relevant events, the figures for 2011 were in line with the average of the last ten years. 90% of the recorded natural catastrophes were weather-related – however, nearly two-thirds of economic losses and about half the insured losses stemmed from geophysical events, principally from the large earthquakes. Normally, it is the weather-related natural catastrophes that are the dominant loss drivers.” Munich-Re, “Review of Natural Catastrophes in 2011,” 4 January 2012. Download pdf.
** The video was published on Nov 17, 2011 by AssociatedPress and posted on YouTube: “A tornado ravaged three neighborhoods in the outskirts of the Bolivian city of Cochabamba, damaging dozens of private homes and warehouses but was not responsible for any deaths. (Nov. 17).” For a recent example of a very destructive tornadoes outbreak, see the U.S. 2011 Super Outbreak, which occurred from April 25 to 28, 2011.
***** Stockton also emphasises that local authorities would need to ask for (in the case of the U.S., federal) help.
“Responding to those requests in a timely manner could create complex challenges for the department [of defense] in sourcing the requested capabilities, transporting them, and then providing for their reception, staging, onward movement, and integration in a severely disrupted environment.”
Featured image: Part of the third part of the Triptych The Garden of Earthly delights by Bosch via Wikimedia Commons
Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally, and within Everstate.
The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however come first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, the events will be presented as impacted by the scenario.
A typical year
Pressures and events that could take place in the short to medium-term future (up to 10 years).
In May, tornadoes, which, previously, had never occurred in Everstate, devastate for a few days some parts of the West. A few cities are badly hit. (1)
Tornadoes are followed by a 6 months long heat wave and drought. (2)
During the same summer, energy prices surge with some spikes corresponding to an oil price of 200$ a barrel (to adapt for each type of energy). (3)
Novcybio is a foreign international company developing new biotechnologies. An Everstatan company, Novcybio Everstate, has various commercial and industrial relations with Novcybio. In August, global media report that a terrorist group has infiltrated a Novcybio laboratory in its home country, stolen some deadly engineered pathogens and manipulated some of the genes experimented, altering and recombining the DNA sequence of some of the transgenic plants created. (4)
In October, a new episode of the global financial crisis starts. (5)
In November a war starts in the Middle East.
Ideally, up-to-date and available scientific knowledge should guide the choice of events and the design of their occurrence.
The related variables in the initial model (e.g. ecological setting, natural new events/conditions/evolution, new external military threats, etc.), which are actually cluster variables, could themselves be developed as specific models for each issue. The different models could then be synthesised to obtain a better understanding and foresight capability. For example, what we know of sea level rise could be linked to the model developed here. Ideally, assuming sufficient resources, we should aim towards the creation of such synthesised models.
Most of the time, when impacts are envisioned, it tends to be done according to only one perspective. In the case of environmental changes, this means most of the time direct costs, sometimes with a larger economic perspective. Even approaches through vulnerability and resilience tend not to be holistic enough, sometimes giving up on foresight and warning, most of the time oblivious of political and geopolitical dynamics. Such partial approaches are absolutely insufficient.
Indeed, as we shall test with the scenarios here, and as shown by the cases of Haiti and Japan, both ravaged by deadly earthquakes (2010 Haiti earthquake, 7Mw – 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, 9Mw), it is more than likely that polities in different political conditions will use different capabilities, in various ways, to face changes and duress. Likewise, what will result will probably differ. Only such multidisciplinary approaches can let us hope to reach resilience.
It follows that the timing of those events will generate different consequences. We are again faced with the same challenge, chronology and timing (see “Time in Strategic Foresight and Risk Management”; Creating Evertime). Ideally again, considering different sets of likelihood and timing for each event should allow us combining different sets of events. Each should be tested against the conditions of the polity for this very specific timing. Adequate computing and Artificial Intelligence facilities would be necessary.
Anticipating other events
Users and Readers can imagine other sets of events that could befall Everstate the same year, or the following years. The methodology used allows to (relatively) easily adapt the narratives.
“Observations suggest that drought in Europe has occurred more frequently in the latter part of the 20th century, however the scientific understanding of the driving forces behind largescale droughts is incomplete. Climate change projections for Europe further indicate that drought is likely to become more frequent and more severe due to warmer northern winters and a warmer and drier Mediterranean region…”
(3) The scenarios below should be revised and adapted to the current and future energy mix, including efforts to reach Net Zero by 2050.
Scenarios on oil prices related to a potential war with Iran and the closing of the Strait of Ormuz led to the following forecasts:
“i) Scenario 1: Exports minimally effected. Concerns would drive initial price response; Oil could spike initially to $130 to $140 per barrel and then settle in a higher range, around $120 to $125; ii) Scenario 2: Iranian exports cut off for one month. In this case, we would expect prices could reach previous all-time highs of $145/bbl or even higher depending on issues with shipping; iii) Scenario 3: Iranian exports are lost for half a year. We think oil prices could probably rally and average $150 for the six months, with notable spikes above that level; iv) Scenario 4: Greater loss of production from around the region, either through subsequent Iranian response or due to lack of ability to move oil through Straits of Hormuz. This is the Armageddon scenario in which oil prices could soar, significantly constraining global growth…”
1) “Scenario 1: EU enacts a full ban on 0.6 Mb/d of imports of Iranian crude. In this scenario, we would expect Brent crude prices to surge into the $125-150 range.” 2) “Scenario 2: Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows. In this scenario, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period….”
(5) This renewed financial crisis would come from the assumption that nothing – beyond reducing state expenses – or not much has really been endeavoured in the word to tackle the financial crisis started in 2007. Thus, the crisis regularly surges after temporary lulls. It would be worsened by the impact of oil prices’ increase and spikes on the real economy; read, for a recent paper on this latter point: Dr. Mingqi Li (associate professor of economics at the University of Utah), “Has the Global Economy Become Less Vulnerable to Oil Price Shocks?” The OilDrum, 14 March 2012.
A Bibliography Bibliography on energy security for strategic foresight and warning (not exhaustive) built while working on energy issues, notably as senior scientific adviser for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the Deputy Director for Energy/Environmental Security (2008-2010). Energy security and foresight Bray, David A., Sean Costigan, Keith A. Daum, Helene Lavoix, Elizabeth L. Malone, and Chris Pallaris, “Perspective: Cultivating Strategic Foresight for Energy and Environmental Security,” Cambridge Journals, Environmental Practice, volume 11, issue 03, Septembre 2009. Lavoix, Helene, Why Strategic Foresight and Warning? The case of Energy Security, (slides), RSIS, Public lecture, NTU, Singapore, 19th April 2010 Millennium Project, 2020 Global Energy Scenarios, 2008. Shell Scenarios, Looking ahead. Energy Demand Bartis, James T. and Lawrence Van Bibber, Alternative Fuels for …
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement as policies the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission: a programme of drastic reduction of public expenses over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2218 EVT, the policies do not lead to a current account surplus as expected nor to a reimbursement of public debt but to a rising current account deficit as well as to the withering away of the nation’s income.
(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading – research note at the bottom of the post).
The withering away of the nation’s income would imply, under a system other than Mamominarch (minimization of state’s spending as core principle), an acknowledgement of the need for new resources and income.
Here, however, considering the core beliefs upheld, this is impossible. Yet, taxes still exist, including the new, temporary ones decided back in 2212 EVT. Those should allow bridging the gap until the budget situation becomes balanced again and a large part of overseas debts is reimbursed. Now, as the overall income of the nation shrinks (added to other linked factors) and as no new resources are looked for, the overall level of resources extracted decreases, despite the 2212 EVT supplementary taxes. This, in turn, does not lead to a balanced budget as hoped, but to a renewed deficit, although smaller. Meanwhile, debts cannot be reimbursed.
Going on trying to balance the budget through the Mamominarch system will only lead to a regressive spiral of further reductions of state’s expenses, which, in turn, will mean less income for the nation, which will imply further slahes in state’s expenditures, etc.
The shrinking of the income of Everstate as a nation also impacts the power of the ruler, i.e. the nation and its governing bodies. This weakens, unsurprisingly, the bargaining position of the ruler regarding the elite and the strength of the central order. Those impacts are in line with the Mamominarch system, which promotes privatization and outsourcing on the one hand, devolution, on the other.
Another factor seriously undermines the power of the nation and of its governing institutions: the dissolution of the legitimate monopoly of violence. First, outsourcing spreads when external military pressures and threats do not relent. Meanwhile, outsourcing added to an ever weakening central order and power means less control over the way threats are perceived, monitored, labeled and faced, while the entities perceiving, monitoring, labeling and acting on the threats are driven by profit and not by national interests.
Then, local criminality and organised crime are on the rise. In the poorest areas of Everstate, the minimal level of local public funds makes it difficult to hire the police force necessary to face rising difficulties, and impossible for private contractors to take over as benefits would be too low. Nationally, despite Novstate’s central database and communication system, the delocalisation of police force and the use of multiple private contractors makes it extremely complex to follow, analyse and understand flexible criminal organisations used to take advantage of weaknesses of central power, while coordinated action is even more difficult. As a result, spreading pockets of lawlessness develop, while Everstatans start experiencing very different lives according to where they live.
Finally, the withering away of the nation’s income impacts Everstate’s governance.
True enough, devolution, increased reliance on the Regional Union and management by the private sector were meant to compensate such probable impacts. However, as seen, things did not work this way on the whole territory and governance increasingly becomes fragile, and less efficient.
As further example, the sudden inflow of capital and arrival of highly paid foreign executives at the beginning of the Mamominarch period led to a sharp increase in real estate prices in those areas favoured by foreign investors. As it had not been anticipated, and as, anyway, it favoured real estate owners, notably elite groups, it was considered as positive. Yet, the real estate boom also created a difficult situation for local people, as wages remained frozen considering the otherwise uncertain and even negative global context. In those cities, areas and villages where the real estate boom occurred and where prices still remain very high, demonstrations and protests take place.Yet, they are never of a national scope – as different places are impacted differently – and rarely mentioned beyond local news. Those responsible for local governments do not either report them to central authorities as, anyway, at national level, there is no one in charge of this problem anymore. Each locality deals with the problem solely according to its own idiosyncrasies, and with its own resources, which impairs the implementation of sustainable solutions.
In those areas of the East and South, which have not attracted foreign investment, unemployment rises, poverty and inequality increase and a feeling of injustice deepens and spreads. Yet, these provinces used to be rich as they were those where agriculture had traditionally been done. But now, even rising food prices do not allow smaller exploitations to live properly considering the surging cost of life, notably generated by unmitigated new resources’ conditions. Left to their own device, without any help from local administrations too poor to do anything, people migrate away to richer areas, where they are used as cheaper labour. As the situation is far from full employment, they generate hostile feelings from the indigenous populations who cannot compete. Completely new tensions, declined in nationalistic terms, start appearing, when none existed previously.
Meanwhile, some wealthy Everstatian entrepreneurs start buying land in those areas at a very low price. For example, one of them is contracted by a foreign company, Novcybio, which develops new biotechnologies, to test its products on his land for a high premium.
Everstate’s economy has grown very inefficient for the vast majority of Everstatans. The security provided to Everstatans has not only not been improved but, on the contrary, is degrading.
We are thus back to dynamics similar to those existing in 2212 EVT, before the Mamominarch Commission, but to those must now be added the unintended unfavourable impacts specific to the Mamominarch system.
As we progress in the scenario, it becomes obvious that the initial model could be improved along at least two lines:
As noted initially, if the model was computerised, we should be able to truly follow dynamically, time segment by time segment, the evolution of the situation. Here, because of the absence of such a computerised power as well as for the sake of narration, we have to take a much less detailed approach and to synthesise it by broad themes. This leads us to reflect upon the way we are used to organise and present our thoughts, more according to categories than to dynamic processes, and that could, in itself be an impediment to a proper handling of transition situations, when “everything seem to happen at once.” Research on other ways to present situations, that would nevertheless be appealing and cognitively understandable could be rewarding.
Recalling the difficult problem of levels of analysis, as identified by Waltz (1959), it would be interesting to develop also the model on different layers, i.e. global, regional, central and national, local, according to the various existing layers of governance.
Considering any issue in terms of strategic foresight and warning for national security demands, first and foremost, a minimal understanding of the issue itself, which is notably obtained by reaching out to experts in the related fields, as done by the ICA. This is true for water as for any other issue. Without this initial enquiry, it is impossible to even hope delivering proper foresight and warning to policy-makers. It is only after the issue is understood that we may sieve our analysis through the various filters of national security, mission of the institution carrying the analysis and finally complex policy-making system.
Focusing initially on an understanding of water, without any self-imposed restriction, will underline three major points, already sparsely evidenced in the ICA, and upon which we could build more systematically for an even better, and more actionable strategic foresight and warning on water related security issues.
Moving beyond a deceptive anthropocentric water usage
First, and as underlined by all studies on water, including by the ICA, water on Earth is distributed according to various forms and places.
The most widely used estimate of water distribution was established by Igor Shiklomanov (1993) and is similar to a more recent assessment (Gleick, 1996), as the two tables below, extracted from the USGS website, show. It would appear that the ICA uses the same figures, approximations on percentages apart.*
As a result, most studies dealing with water as security issue mainly focus on freshwater, especially freshwater most commonly used by human beings, i.e. rivers and lakes, as well as groundwater. This is how the ICA proceeds, indeed emphasising that “we do not do a comprehensive analysis of the entire global water landscape” (Scope Note). However, one also finds throughout the assessment, evidence that the ICA does not actually limit itself to this approach, as we shall see.
It is indeed necessary to define and most often reduce the scope of any study, as well as to focus on specific objectives, here national interest. Human usage of water is obviously crucial for survival, likely to generate tensions and thus of primary importance to national security. However, because we are here considering potential threats and opportunities to national security, are we sure we can reduce our area of concern to human usage?
Indeed, usage on the one hand and threats or opportunities on the other are not synonymous, notably in the context of climate change and other anthropogenic changes (i.e. changes caused by humans) we must face nowadays.
For example, we now know that a drop in biodiversity may enhance the risks of epidemics (Suzán et al. 2009; Sohn 2009). Hence, if biodiversity is reduced as a result of water-related changes, then we could have increased risks of diseases, which go beyond those already underlined by the ICA p.5.
“Patterns of threat” by Rivers in Crisis – data
Instances of such risks to biodiversity have been identified, for example, in “Global Threats to Human Water Security and River Biodiversity” (published in Nature in 2010 and with a dedicated website showing, among other, interactive maps of threats). This study finds notably that “80% of the world’s population is exposed to high levels of threat to water security… while “biodiversity,” is jeopardized, “with habitats associated with 65% of continental discharge classified as moderately to highly threatened.” It shows that technological efforts in richer countries focus on reducing threats to human water security, but do not pay attention to biodiversity.
Thus, most probably, the risks of epidemics are not only higher than emphasised in the ICA, but also present on a much larger territory – including most of the so-called richer world, as shown in yellow on the map – and could involve a wider range of diseases. Such qualifications of threats cannot be neglected in terms of national security.
This example means that our assessments would be enhanced if we were changing the initial focus of investigation. Security issues related to water usage for humans are only one aspect we must address. We need to consider water even when it is not of direct use to humans, i.e. when it affects biodiversity.
Interestingly, the ICA itself underlines this point – and more – when it judges “that, from now through 2040, improved water management will afford the best solutions for water problems” and explains that efficient water management is the “use of an integrated water resource management framework that assesses the whole ecosystem and then uses technology and infrastructure for efficient water use, flood control, redistribution of water, and preservation of water quality” (p.6).
It would be highly beneficial – if difficult – to start working towards a process allowing us to also include systematically such integrated approach for threats (and opportunities) assessment.
Integrating the whole water cycle
Second, as far as water is concerned, the Earth is most often considered as a closed system (USGS), i.e. a system that only exchanges energy with its environment.**
If we are in the case of a closed system, this means that the overall amount of water on earth, whatever its form, does not vary. It can neither augment nor diminish but is transformed and transported through the water cycle, as depicted by the USGS picture below, where humans are represented as part of fauna. Animals will take in water from freshwater storage and plants and then return water through evapotranspiration and waste products.
The water cycle shows, even more than the previous point, the need to stop limiting ourselves to freshwater usable by humans. We must, on the contrary, consider all types of water. Indeed, freshwater is obviously heavily dependent upon other types of water, spheres (as in biosphere or hydrosphere) and processes.
Any change either to one component of the cycle, to the flow, or, worst, to the cycle itself – and this at both global and local (ecosystems) levels – has a potential to produce threats to security – or opportunities – to alter timelines for both threats occurrence and response, and to change likelihood. For example, to completely remove anything related to the oceans from water-related threats assessment may create very unfortunate blind spots indeed. As, in terms of national security, this “cycle approach” is already adopted in the case of snow, glaciers and melt-water, including in the ICA, it only needs to be applied systematically.
Considering interactions between cycles
Finally, the water cycle is also linked to two other major cycles, the carbon and nitrogen cycles.
The Carbon Cycle by Wikipedia
The water and carbon cycles are linked, notably through the processes of respiration (living beings). Thus, any change in one cycle has the potential to feed back on the other, creating chain reactions with potential threatening impacts, or, on the contrary, opportunities.
Nitrogen is a vital element of life. As explained by John Arthur Harrison, it is “an essential component of DNA, RNA, and proteins, the building blocks of life” (VisionLearning). Without entering into the details of the complex nitrogen cycle (see for example “The Global Water and Nitrogen Cycles” by the University of Michigan), the water and nitrogen cycles can interact in many ways, for example through atmospheric nitrogen and acid rains, changed water pH, freshwater polluted by excess nitrogen, eutrophication, etc. Again, change to one cycle will affect the other with impact on threats and opportunities assessment.
Parts of the feedbacks between cycles are already considered, for example, through the increasingly reduced availability of safe drinking water, and through various water-related impacts on food security. However, it would be necessary to develop a multi-disciplinary effort that would allow us to truly and exhaustively envision potential feedback effects between cycles aiming at improving threats and opportunities identification and evaluation (including impact, timeline and likelihood).
Grounding systematically global water security and related threats and opportunities assessment in an approach moving away from restrictive and deceptive anthropocentric usage, focusing on the whole water cycle at both global and local level and integrating feedbacks with other related cycles would yield crucial further insights in terms of likelihood, timeline, impacts as well as nature of threats.
It would thus enhance the overall product, as well as pertinence for policy-makers and decision-makers. It would also generate vital improvements in terms of indicators and monitoring, which would need to be organised with outreach, considering the scope of the endeavour.
Transition towards such an approach is already underway as many of its elements, besides the more classical national security orientation, are found in the ICA, if we take the “Global Water Security” assessment as representative of anticipatory products for national security. Change needs however to be systematised.
* The source given by the ICA, “World Bank 2010,” is incomplete and insufficient to trace the data used.
** We should however note that the endogenous and the exogenous (for example “having been delivered by comet impacts – e.g. Morbidelli et al 2000”) appearance of water on Earth seem to be still debated (UCLA IGPP) and that the water system can also be considered as open through exchanges at the level of the atomic constituents of water (hydrogen and oxygen).
This article was selected to be re-posted as part of AlertNet’s special multimedia report Reuters Foundation – “The Battle for Water:” The Battle for Water – Global water security: moving towards worldwide assessment
References
Gleick, P. H., 1996: “Water resources.” In Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, ed. by S. H. Schneider, (Oxford University Press, New York, vol. 2).
Morbidelli A. Chambers J. Junine J.I. Petit J.M. Robert F. Valsecchi G.B. and Cyr K.E. 2000. “Source regions and timescales for the delivery of water to the Earth.” Meteoritics & Planetary Science 35: 1309-1320.
Shiklomanov, Igor “World fresh water resources” in Peter H. Gleick (editor), 1993,Water in Crisis: A Guide to the World’s Fresh Water Resources (Oxford University Press, New York).
UCLA IGPP Center for Astrobiology – NASA Astrobiology Institute; “Cosmochemistry in an astrophysical context – relating the origin of the Solar System to processes of planet building elsewhere (Hansen, Lyons, McKeegan, Morris, Shuping, Wasson, Young); accesed 27 March 2012.
Vörösmarty, C. J. et al. “Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity.” Nature 467, 555–561 (30 September 2010) doi:10.1038/nature09440.
Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies have transformed the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission into policies: a programme of drastic reduction of public expenses will be implemented over five years. Despite hopes to quickly achieve a positive trade balance, after a few months of improvement, the situation worsens in terms of export of services, notably because of a decay of the education system, while youth unemployment soars. The exports of goods does not fare better because of the difficulty Everstatan industries meet to face, alone, the new resources’ condition.
Trade balance (2)
In Everstate, the situation regarding energy becomes also very worrying, all the more so that energy is vital for most modern activities, including trade. As underlined by the International Energy Agency,
“Rising transport demand and upstream costs reconfirm the end of cheap oil. Short-term pressures on oil markets may be eased by slower economic growth and by the expected return of Libyan oil to the market, but trends on both the oil demand and supply sides maintain pressure on prices. We assume that the average IEA crude oil import price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035 (over $210/barrel in nominal terms) in the New Policies Scenario although, in practice, price volatility is likely to remain.” World Energy Outlook 2011, Executive Summary, November 2011, p.3.”
The high cost of the energy that can be used for trade, mainly oil, resulting from the failure of the world to be prepared for Peak Oil (point of maximum production) and to anticipate early enough the transition to other adequate types of energy, implies, among others, a slow down of global trade and a generalised increase in prices.* Once more, the shrinking of Everstate’s central governing authorities becomes soon a disadvantage as no national policy can be endeavoured.
True enough, the Regional Union carries weight and should not only compensate but also allow for better results in international negotiations and design of efficient energetic policies across impacts. However, first, the Regional Union, is also built according to the old organisational model and, more than once, fails to see connections between issues and second and third-order impacts. Second, the Regional Union model still relies on and involves the power of each member-state. The reduced administrative staff of Everstate’s state bureaucracy, practically, facilitates neither this reliance nor favours Everstate in negotiations internal to the Union. Witnessing this, Novstate, using its high level contacts, starts a strong lobbying that favour its interests and those of its friends companies. It is, however, only one company among many using the same tactics. Finally, once decisions have been taken, the shrunken Everstatan administration acts as a stovepipe and ends up blocking implementation. Slowly, the Regional Union administrative staff starts dealing directly with local Everstatan administrations.
As a result, all Everstatans, companies – save for Novstate and its friends – and individuals, are affected by the changing energetic order without much chance to be heard and even less to play a role.
As far as the trade balance is concerned, the impact is a deficit, with more costly imports, which are a necessity, and, in a world of lowered trade volume and heightened competition, less exports.
Net transfers and factor income
What happens with the other terms of the current account, that could maybe help towards the initial aim, reimbursing the public debt?
First, as aid and cooperation were transferred to NGOs and the private sector, transfer payments stopped and cannot burden anymore the current account. However, the cost for the nation in terms of influence, notably considering the overall scramble for resources as well as all pressures and threats, can be major, if difficult to measure.
Then, what is the situation regarding net factor income?
The inflow of capital (inward Foreign Direct Investment – FDI) that took place in 2212 – 2213 EVT, notably with the privatizations, leads, the following years, to a considerable increase in dividends paid abroad. Meanwhile, the arrival of highly paid foreign executives brought in by the investors implies an increase in the amount of remittances going out of the country, although relatively marginal compared with other factors. Added to the interests on public debt still paid overseas, income payments do not diminish, on the contrary.
Income receipts, for their part, do not increase much. Most of the dividends received from abroad originate from investments made by Novstate. However, the new “friends network” concept developed by Novstate also minimises direct investment. It implies that the benefits received by Novstate are not translated in flows captured by traditional aggregates.
Emigration does not considerably increase as seen previously. As it has never been very high, remittances coming in are negligible. As a result, income receipts show a deficit and contribute to a rising current account deficit over the years. Thus, the current account cannot contribute to reimburse the public debt.
Furthermore, the increasing current account deficit leads to a shrinking income of the nation-state, which only adds to the diminishing income resulting from the sale of the nation’s resources.
In a world of polities organised as nation-states and under pressures, it would seem that reducing drastically state expenditures also implies withering away the Nation’s income, with unexpected consequences.
Lately, a few specialised think-tanks and companies, notably Exxon and Shell, have started emphasising further changes in the energetic order, indicating that the renewed investment made by oil companies added to shale gas, shale oil, and tar sands exploitation would lead to newly available oil and gas supply, which leads to extrapolations on a potential sustainable decrease in prices, as explained by a Bloomberg recent article: Ayesha Daya, Brian Swint and Rakteem Katakey, “Iran Power Declining in Oil Market as Explorers Spend $90 Billion: Energy,” March 13, 2012. However, the high environmental cost of some of the techniques involved for shale gas and fracking (e.g. geology.com), and for tar sands as well as the high technological cost of unconventional oil and of some of the newly found deposits of conventional oil imply that more research would be needed for further synthetic detailed assessment. See also, for example, Roland Vially, , IFP, November 2011; “Shale gas” – March 5 2012 by Energy Bulletin.
The ODNI has released the unclassified version of the latest US Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security (Feb 2012). Very interesting! For thoughts on the ICA see Building upon the 2012 “Global Water Security” IC Assessment.
Click on the image below to download the ICA in pdf.
GDPR, Privacy and Cookies
The Red Team Analysis Society uses cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. This includes cookies from third party social media websites if you visit a page which contains embedded content from social media. Such third party cookies may track your use of the Red Team Analysis Society website.
If you click on "Accept", you accept our policy, we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies on the Red Team Analysis Society website and this will close this notice. Accept AllGDPR and Cookie Policy
Privacy & Cookies Policy
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
