Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …
Continue reading “Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ➃ Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt ➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts ➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State ➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya ➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region ➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and …
Continue reading “Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?”
Impact on Issues ➙ ➀ / ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government. For previous and …
Continue reading “Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃ U.S. influence in the region➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi forces …
Continue reading “Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Will the U.S. be able to stem this declining tide in terms of AI? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of AI be perceived? what would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? (Critical uncertainties) ➚➚ China influence ➚ …
Continue reading “Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat ➚➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➚➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria ➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle East Tension➚ Iran influence➚➚ ➃ Russia influence➘ Threat to Israel➚➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial – likely leading to ➘➘ U.S. influence ➚➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions ➘ Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria On 1 November 2017, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the President of Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani met in Teheran.For previous and other signals check the Horizon Scanning BoardFriendly statements followed. Iran …
Continue reading “Signals: Russia, Iran, Turkey – A Syrian Strategic Triangle”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➚ ➃ Russia influence trial As the seventh round of Astana talks proceeds (30 Oct-31 Oct 2017), Russia’s envoy Alexander Lavrentyev stated:“The question arises on how to involve the Kurds more actively in the post-conflict restoration and political resolution.”This statement, as well as the federal design for Syria Russia favours, would let us expect that Russia will support the Kurdish led project, i.e. to see their Federation of Northern Syria within a united Syria survive and strive. As a result, the survival of the Kurdish-led project …
Continue reading “Signal: Russia to Support Deeper Involvement of Kurds in Post-War Syria”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? ➂ Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty). ➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➘➘➘ ➁ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations …
Continue reading “Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia”
Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➚➚ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region➘ ➙ Saudi Arabia’s influence➘ ? Saudi Arabia – Iran tensions ➚ ? ➃ Russia’s influence➘➘ ➃ U.S. influence ➘ ➄ Syrian Kurds prospects ➚ ➃ Russia’s influence trial in Syria➘➚? ➃ Middle East Tension As the internationally abandoned Iraqis Kurds appear to have, at least temporarily, not only lost their bid for …
Impact on Issues ? ➂ towards ➃ The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➚➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Update 15:45 – …
Continue reading “Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over”
