Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
The COVID-19 seems to plunge the world further into a deep confusion. Messages are most of the time contradictory. They vary according to countries and actors, from “the epidemic is behind us”, “let us all go back to business as usual and work towards recovery” to worries of possible starting new pandemic wave. This confusion …
Continue reading “The emergence of a COVID-19 international order”
This article, using scientific knowledge, looks at the COVID-19 dynamics of contagion to identify ideal measures that should be taken to stop contagion. These ideal measures, then, compared with real policies will allow assessing the potential for a second wave. Our aim, for this series, is to find ways to improve how we foresee if, …
Continue reading “Dynamics of contagion and the COVID-19 Second Wave”
In this article we explore the way the COVID-19 pandemic was born and, hidden, spread globally. Learning from this very early process, we deduce initial key elements and indicators to monitor and control the COVID-19 second wave and recurrent ones. With this series of articles we are looking for ways to better estimate the likelihood …
Continue reading “The Hidden Origin of the COVID-19 and the Second Wave”
This brief article is a first early warning about food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The danger is rising and deserves further and more in-depth analysis and monitoring. As the COVID-19 pandemic developed, we immediately added food insecurity on our watch list of issues to monitor (see our COVID-19 section). To date, mid-May 2020, …
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The COVID-19 pandemic is hammering the United States. Thus, it is pummeling the deep U.S.-China economic interdependency, also known as “Chimerica” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “The US-China Covid-19 Competition (1)”, The Red (Team) Analysis, April 17, 2020). (Traduction française automatique par intelligence artificielle.) The mammoth impact of the pandemic on the U.S. results from the shutting down …
Continue reading “The U.S.-China COVID-19 Competition (2): America and Chimerica in Crisis”
Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, part of South Asia and the U.S. progressively exit the COVID-19 lockdowns and relax the most severe social distancing measures. In the meantime, China, Singapore and South Korea, the countries that were hit first and succeeded in controlling the first wave, appear to face different dynamics after easing of anti-COVID-19 …
Many countries hit by the pandemic are now exiting or about to exit the period of most stringent isolation measures. Indeed, they estimate they succeeded in controlling contagion. Meanwhile, they avoided the dreaded break down of their health-care system, which could have taken place if hospitals had been overwhelmed. In Europe, one country stands apart, …
Continue reading “The Strange Case of Sweden in the COVID-19 Pandemic”
What is “great powers competition” in a time of global confinement? As we write this article, half of the human species is or has been confined in homes or apartments, in cities and slums. In China, for example, confinement is a massive political and social undertaking. All around the world hundreds of millions of people …
Continue reading “The COVID-19 and the U.S.-China competition (1)”
One of the critical and key uncertainty about the COVID-19, among so many, is the immunity a patient may have after recovery from the COVID-19. In other words, can someone who recovered from the COVID-19 catch the disease again and infect other people again? As long as we have neither vaccine nor fully efficient antiviral …
Continue reading “The COVID-19, Immunity and Isolation Exit Strategy”
The world is now struggling to know how to face the COVID-19 pandemic. We want to know how long the pandemic will last. Actually, what we want to know is when the pandemic will end and when life will be able to resume normally. As we explained in the opening article for this series, to …
Continue reading “COVID-19 Antiviral Treatments and Scenarios”
