The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No121, 10 October 2013

This week among the major clusters of signals that emerge, we have those about Turkey, its geopolitics and growing Islamism, then the chronicles of an environmental catastrophe in the making, including resources depletion, with the rising importance of a “Gold Rush to Space” as one counterweight. In this framework, if we look at another – unsurprising – cluster, the U.S. government shutdown (and risk of default – but they would not dare, would they?), and turn to the very interesting “Un-Official Government Shutdown Clock”, we shall see that the NASA counts 97% of furloughed employees, the EPA 93% and the DOE 69%. Thus, to direct challenges to national security the shutdown represents, amply emphasized and documented, we may see another one being outlined, a challenge in terms of strategic choices and vision. The cluster on drones and “killer robot insects” is an indication of the changes taking place in warfare, while the more ancient but always efficient psychological operations continue unabated, as with Syria. Meanwhile, the agony of Greece and Greeks exemplifies a world that has changed, with its growing wealth and skyrocketing inequality and their so often forgotten, slowly emerging political consequences, at national and international level (including the progressive loss of legitimacy of international institutions, see the articles on the IMF  and Greece and the U.N. and Haiti).

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horizon scanning, weak signal, warning, global risk, political risk, national security


Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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