Impact on Issues
➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain
The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King.
This is a worrying signal that is highly likely to facilitate independence as the nation further splits. Meanwhile, the Catalans are likely to increasingly tend to perceive the Spanish political authorities as illegitimate for their community. They could even start perceiving these central authorities as wishing them harm.
As a result, escalation is eased.
Spain’s King Felipe VI has condemned organisers of Catalonia’s independence referendum for having put themselves “outside the law”. In a TV address to the nation, he said the situation in Spain was “extremely serious”, and called for unity. Thousands of people in Catalonia have been protesting over Spanish police violence during Sunday’s vote, during which nearly 900 people were hurt.
Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan.
She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership.
She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
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