Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚ ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas.Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most players, …
Continue reading “Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa”
The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.
Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France).
An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia.
She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics.
Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.
View more posts
