Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚  ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future  (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas.Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most players, …

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Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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