Impact on Issues ? ➃  Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation  (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➘ ?➂ Legitimacy of Kurdish political authorities and parties ➚➚  Iran influence in Iraq and in the region➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ Russia ‘s involvement and stake➚ Israel’s stake➚ ➃  Russia influence trial➚ ➃  U.S. influence trial Heavy exchanges of fire are (20 Oct 2017 morning CET) taking place in the north of Kirkuk between the Kurdish Peshmergas and the Iraqi forces. By 12:30 (Iraqi time), Altun Kupri (north of Kirkuk) would have fallen to Iraqi forces, including the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), Iraqi Shiite militia backed by the Iranian Quds. Peshmergas had taken position North of Kirkuk …

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Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.