All Articles - Page 51 of 66 - The Red Team Analysis Society

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 – A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally?

Editorial – Towards a new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally? Japan, China, the U.S. and Russia – As so many are focusing on the last round of global protests, now in Ukraine, in Venezuela, and in Thailand (although the situation there is much less emphasized in crowdsourced news), or on the seemingly always rising tensions across the Middle East, in the Far East, tension has gone up at least a notch, with the Japanese government suggesting it wanted to revisit the 1993 study leading to Japan’s 1994 apologies for South Korean “comfort women” during World War II (see Washington Post article).

Furthermore and most noticeably, Japan seems also not to be hesitating anymore to risk “a chill” with its American ally, to use Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly No140 – A new strategic configuration in the Far East and globally?”

Afghanistan at a New Crossroad: Resource Curse or Asian integration?

The first sentence of the 2006 US Quadrennial Defence Review is “The United States is a nation engaged in what will be a long war”. Any civilian, military or factious leader in Afghanistan, could have written almost exactly the same after thirty-five years of war. And this war still goes on, but it now faces a strange strategic, ecological and economic transition, that could be dominated by a new “Afghan resource and climate curse”. Failed state-building, climate and war From 1969 to 1972, Afghanistan went through a terrible drought and a harsh winter. A terrible famine followed, which ravaged the populations of central Afghanistan. The titanic scale of incompetence, mismanagement and corruption of the Kabul government aggravated it, and maybe …

Continue reading “Afghanistan at a New Crossroad: Resource Curse or Asian integration?”

The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 13 February 2014 – Storms and floods, harbinger of multifaceted changes

Editorial – Storms and floods, harbinger of multifaceted changes: While the US knows a very cold winter, Western Europe is hit by the ninth storm since 17 December 2013, each bringing destruction and floods in its wake. This shows first, in a somehow novel way, that so-called “rich and developed”countries can be relentlessly hit by what is most probably a consequence of climate change. Here we are faced with storms and related floods, but other types of extreme weather events could also occur. Second, these storms start giving us an idea of how this vulnerability will most probably have multifaceted and mammoth impacts. Actually, this issue is far from being completely new. We have already underlined the high likelihood to see …

Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 13 February 2014 – Storms and floods, harbinger of multifaceted changes”

The Kurds and Rojava, State-Building in the Syrian War

During the Autumn 2013 and Winter 2014, we witnessed a major reconfiguration of forces in Syria, as seen previously, including with the rise of Salafi-Nationalists. This article looks at the evolution that took place in Western Kurdistan, notably the birth of novel political institutions, Rojava, and how and why the Kurds relate to the Geneva conference that took place in early 2014.Creating RojavaWe recall that on 10 July 2013, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) declared starting making plans to move towards some degree of autonomy for Rojava or the Syrian part of Kurdistan (see for detail 4 Nov 2013 update, 2.1.). News about Rojava and its “project” can be followed on its own website, created in August 2013 and maintained until 2017.The PYD moved forward on 11 November …

Continue reading “The Kurds and Rojava, State-Building in the Syrian War”

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 6 February 2014 – The financial system… again

Editorial – The financial system… again – The 23 January Weekly selected the contraction of the Chinese PMI as one of the signals to notice. Impacts of the China PMI drop have been felt notably in Asia, but, at least so far, not so much happened in the rest of the world. Thus, which types of warning could we deliver following this contraction, added to the emergent countries currency problems, the latter having been foreseen for months? Should we follow those who do not really wonder, who do not see those signals as deserving much attention, and who just think that business will continue as usual for ever?

Alternatively, should we, as Phoenix Capital Research publishing on the rather bearish financial blog Zero Hedge, ask: “Is Anyone Really Surprised That the System is On the Brink Again?” We would then follow the same (logical) argument according to which as nothing has truly and really been done financially, and as the same cause always produces the same effect, we should be ready for another mammoth episode of the crisis, and should have been for a while. The question then would not actually be if there will be a new melting down of the system but when.

What if there were also, potentially, another way to look at the situation? In that case, the weak signals would not only be the indications we saw previously, but also the minimal reaction of so many financial markets, added to the erosion of the middle class, and to the spread of poverty that has been seen again and again throughout the last years, notably in developed countries. In this alternative hypothesis, change since 2007/2008 has actually happened, but not the change that rational economic actors believing in a relatively good and just system expected. The real evolution could have been slow and denied, it could have been one grounded in injustice legitimated by outdated ideology, in the exploitation of the many for the benefit of the few, and for the preservation of a system that indulges a specific elite that has been in power for a while and only wishes to preserve its privileges (see The Chronicles of Everstate for the material and ideological stakes and dynamics at work in elite politics).

If those changes have really fully taken place, as is most likely, then, the risks to see a meltdown that would touch the richest, at least on the short-term, might be reduced. This does not mean that the “meltdown” would not impact a large number of people, but those in power may believe they are now enough insulated and protected not to really care, financially. Yet, would they also be right not to care on other fronts? The middle class is an essential component of democracies, thus its disappearance may well send shock waves throughout our democratic regimes, as the rise of pan-European far right alliances may indicate. Prolonged economic stress, as known by Japan, or economic downturn, as could happen in some emerging countries, could be a factor favouring extreme behavior by political authorities unable to find another way to ensure their legitimacy and thus their rule. In other terms it could be an incentive towards war, all the more so that the international tension, compared with 2008, is much higher.

Detailed multidisciplinary foresight and warning analyses are more than ever needed for everyone, including the most privileged, if strategic decisions are to be taken at best, or “strange” and potentially lethal surprises are bound to abound.

Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li

Pakistan and the “Long Storm”

Events show that Pakistan is on the most advanced front lines of climate change. How thus should we re-read the already complex and interacting geopolitical, geostrategic and domestic situations of Pakistan and what does that mean strategically for the region and the world?

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 30 January 2014 – Perceptions and Facts

Editorial – Perceptions and facts – Besides the acceleration of the regionalization and internationalization of the Syrian war and quagmire, besides the futurist use by Erdogan of “hologram to address party members” (imagine a world where such practice would be common), among others, this week presents us with two very interesting instances of the importance of perception and its relationship to facts.

Identifying weak signals and monitoring for warning demand that we observe the world, the actors and their actions to try understanding what could happen next or more largely the potential chain of events that may follow. We thus need not only to pay attention to events and facts but also to how others will interpret those phenomena. How the actors perceive the world will in turn influences their actions – including their statements and the analyses they publish. Those will then be perceived by all actors and influence in turn their actions. Out of this web of reciprocal perceptions, actions and reactions, a reality emerges made of the facts or events we are looking for and trying to foresee.

China and its “growing assertiveness” (as perceived by two U.S. scholars and relayed by CNN) and Russian and American policies towards Ukraine are two very real examples of this phenomenon. In the first case, try to read the article published on China, and imagine you are Chinese: how would you feel and what would you do, as government official, or which policy would you support as citizen? Imagine that a very similar article were published by Chinese scholars, but replacing China by America, getting their fact right but explaining them in a very specific light? Repeat the same experiment imagining you are Korean, then Japanese. Would your feelings and the actions you would want to undertake be different each time? Would your feeling be strong? The escalating tensions that most often result from conflicting perceptions were exemplified in the U.N. (BBC News – Asia history tensions flare at UN debate). This, also let us expect that tensions in East Asia will not lower soon.

A far as Ukraine is concerned, perceptions lead both the U.S. and Russia to adopt very similar policies, which each believes (or says it believe) as right and done for the good of Ukraine: the U.S. readies financial sanctions while Russia”awaits new Ukraine government before fully implementing rescue“. From a Russian perspective, the U.S. approach may be seen as unacceptable, a meddling in the affairs of a sovereign country, moreover part of its “near abroad”. From an American perspective, Russia’s behaviour may be seen as unacceptable, a forceful way to manipulate what a foreign independent democratically elected government can do, i.e. a meddling in the affairs of a sovereign country. We thus, actually, have similar perceptions but each applied to an opposite side of the Ukrainian political spectrum. For all the talks of moving beyond a Cold War mentality, Cold War perceptions seem to still be very pregnant.

Being able to warn and foresee (as designing a strategy) demands that we become aware of those perceptions, that we abstract ourselves as analyst from them, first to be able to see how they influence actors, and second, when we deliver warning and foresight products, to make sure that our message can be heard.

Ideally, it could also lead to better understanding among actors and, maybe, to a more constructive future.

Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li

Facing the Fog of War in Syria: the Rise of the Salafi-Nationalists?

Since October 2013, much has been going on in Syria. We shall first review major changes in the state of play for the Syrian actors, starting with the Salafi-Nationalist groups, before to re-evaluate our scenarios and their indicators in the light of recent events, notably Geneva 2.As was already underway during September, the various groups opposing the regime of Bashar al-Assad have pursued their reconfiguration, while the relationships and interactions among them have evolved.The Islamic FrontA logical evolutionIf the “Islamic framework” (see update 21 Oct), created on 24 September 2013, was short-lived, as expected by many experts, it was nevertheless an important indication of the changes taking place on the ground, while its very composition foretold the current configuration.To facilitate the …

Continue reading “Facing the Fog of War in Syria: the Rise of the Salafi-Nationalists?”

The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly – 23 January 2014 – The power of biases

Editorial – The power of biases: This week strikingly underlines the power of biases and how much beliefs and wishful thinking may overtake our understanding and lead human actions, constraining among other the timeliness of ideas and policies. First, we have the sudden realization by Davos participants that yes, war between China and Japan is possible. Interestingly – and worryingly – it would seem that there, at least, China and Japan seem to have a similar and shared understanding of the situation, but would this be enough to start truly working towards de-escalating the situation?
Then, we have the Montreux meeting regarding the Syrian war, Geneva 2, where foreign diplomats insist on hoping to bring about even tiny positive results when, not only the position of those Syrian actors who are present are irreconcilable but, worse still, when a large part of the fighting forces remain unrepresented (without forgetting that political representation and international legitimacy are also a stake in all negotiations). Short of a real miracle or true black swan, what practical and positive step could truly emerge out of this conference, besides enforcing participants in their beliefs they have done everything to favour peace?

In the first instance, people confronted to different points of views by the main actors seemed to have been shocked out of their previous understanding, and thus biases might have been mitigated. In the second instance, it is much less obvious that a novel awareness is dawning. How various actors will be able to reinterpret the results of Geneva 2 according to their initial goals will determine if beliefs and thus comprehension will change and thus if biases could finally be minimized.

Click on the image below to read on Paper.Li

The Warming Arctic, a Hyper Strategic Crisis

Adapting a famous battle between the Teutonic knights and the Russian army during the thirteenth century in his 1938 movie, “Alexandre Nevski”, Sergei Eisenstein directs one of the most famous war scene in the movie’s history: he shows the terrible armoured Teutonic Knights charging the Russian ragtag army over a frozen lake. However, such is the weight of the Knights’ armours, that, after some fights, the ice of Lake Peipous breaks up and all the Knights drown, giving the victory to the Russians. This could be a metaphor for what might happen in the Arctic during the decades to come, with an important nuance: there might be no winner in the end. Because of climate change, the Arctic is warming …

Continue reading “The Warming Arctic, a Hyper Strategic Crisis”

GDPR, Privacy and Cookies