Second part of the list of open sources predictions for 2013 related to conventional and unconventional national security.
Author Archives: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
End of Year Predictions: the 2013 Yield
Open sources predictions for 2013 published on the web related to conventional and unconventional national security and as foreword a few methodological posts on predictions and forecasts.
2012 Predictions Database
Trial by Fire for Foresight: The 2012 Predictions of The Economist
The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assess, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. It provides us with an example of how such lessons learned could be endeavoured, underlines questions that should be asked and key challenges for anticipation, and exemplifies how biases can derail foresight.
Towards a New Paradigm?
Assessing if we are about to see a paradigm shift is twice crucial. First, and foremost, as human beings living within societies, if such a change happens, then we need to be ready for the upheavals that precede and accompany such deep revolutions, as stakes, both ideological and material, are at work to try blocking …
Pattern – Higher Global Temperatures, Earlier Impacts and the Shale Fuels Bounty
We most probably need to get ready for a 2C temperature rise and its harsh impact on the world relatively rapidly as a temperature rise of 6C – and above – by the end of the century is increasingly probable. Indeed, interests and current challenges and tensions are most likely to favour shale fuels’ production and policies and adversely affect “green efforts”. Other ecological adverse impacts on global security issues such as water and biodiversity may be enhanced and must be monitored. Citizens’ mobilization on those issues may evolve as trade-offs will be done, and as impacts will be felt.
Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?
The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as …
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#Anonymous and #OpVendetta on #5Nov 2012
As described previously, Anonymous undertook a political mobilization to protest on 5th November 2012, notably against current austerity policies and destruction of public service. Here is what happened yesterday evening, as a result, in a few pictures, tweets and charts. Re-enacting V for Vendetta final scene in London In London, the protest started on Trafalgar …
‘We will NOT blow up Parliament’: Anonymous mobilizes for Bonfire Day
On 5th November 2012, Anonymous plans to re-enact the final scene of the film V for Vendetta in London. The protest could also spread to other European capitals and to North America (Steve Huff on Betabeat, 02/10/2012). Two operations, the action mode of Anonymous, #OpVendetta and #OpJubilee, “partner” to mobilize and organise this protest action. …
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Russia Today (RT): a New Media for a Polarizing World?
Triggered by the financial and economic crisis, protests movements have spread, notably in Europe and in the U.S., be they famously named and democratic (Los Indignados/Real Democracy Now, Occupy, etc.) or not. We call them here the “new opposition nexus.” Despite much dismissal and their inner difficulties (intrinsic to new movements), they are now worrying …
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