The aim of the Coal Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on coal security. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Coal Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. Why a Sigils focused on coal since 2012? According to a release by the …
Author Archives: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Occupy, Los Indignados: towards radicalization?
The polarisation that can be observed in recent elections in 2012, notably in Greece and in France for the first round of the Presidential elections, appears to also take place within some of the current Opposition Movements existing outside the classical party system. Those movements, Occupy and Democracia Real Ya! – also known as Los …
Continue reading “Occupy, Los Indignados: towards radicalization?”
2212 EVT – Scenario 2 – Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old
Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Everstate is plagued by a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity, with a related creeping appropriation of resources while the strength of central public power weakens to the profit of various elite groups. An outdated world-view that promotes misunderstanding, disconnect and thus inadequate actions presides to its destiny. Henceforth, the political authorities are increasingly unable to deliver the security citizens seek. Risks to the legitimacy of the whole system increases. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something. Of the three potential scenarios or stories that …
Continue reading “2212 EVT – Scenario 2 – Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old”
The Iran Crisis Sigils
The Iran Crisis Sigils is part of The Sigils, a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens. The aim of the Iran Crisis Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on tensions with Iran and related geopolitical issues. We are …
2218 – 2223 EVT – A Polity in Shambles (Mamominarch)
Post updated 10 May 2012. Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, besides a generalised rising insecurity for most Everstatans, the now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. Further pressures and perceptions of the way they are answered lead to radicalisation and polarisation along three lines: local independence with direct membership to the Regional Union – with now a battle over Trueland …
Continue reading “2218 – 2223 EVT – A Polity in Shambles (Mamominarch)”
The Sigils
The Sigils are designed as a series of daily scans exploring the horizon for weak (and less weak) signals related to various issues relevant to geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Such scans can be of interest to all actors, namely citizens, the corporate sector, NGOs and domestic and international political authorities. We selected a couple of …
2218 – 2223 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)
Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. As a result, tension rises relatively uniformly while grievances increase heterogeneously. Inability to answer this multiform situation leads to a new political mobilisation, besides the classical old parties, proponents of Mamominarch: movements for local independence and direct membership in the Regional Union, including a powerful Movement for …
Continue reading “2218 – 2223 EVT – Escalation (Mamominarch)”
2218 – 2223 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)
Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a fragilised governance including and implying the rise of lawlessness domestically, an abandoned mastery over international security, an inefficient economy and, as consequence, a rising insecurity for most Everstatans. The first set of tragic events – a tornadoes outbreak followed by a heat wave – that hits the West of Everstate soon becomes a complex catastrophe with dramatic …
Continue reading “2218 – 2223 EVT – From Grievances to Political Mobilisation (Mamominarch)”
Pearltrees: a multifunction visual bibliographic tool
While preparing the bibliography on energy security foresight, I was wondering if it would be useful to also apply a visually appealing approach to bibliographies, which would then be conceptualized as a product. As usual, there is no simple answer to this question, and if the classical bibliography will most probably have to be kept for a while, Pearltrees also appears as a perfect bibliographic tool. Inevitable classical bibliography Because delivery of product must consider both the product’s material support and the recipient or customer, then the traditional way to write a bibliography will probably have to be kept for some time. Indeed, for anything that uses paper and print as support, the usual, alphabetical bibliography is best. It is …
Continue reading “Pearltrees: a multifunction visual bibliographic tool”
2218 – 2223 EVT – Complex Catastrophes (Mamominarch)
(update 14 Feb 2014) Any type of similar natural events and catastrophes can be imagined to strike countries, as, for example, storms and floods in Western Europe or snow storms in the U.S. during the Winter 2013-2014. Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement as policies the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission: a programme of drastic reduction of state spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, the result is involution, with a fragilised governance including and implying the rise of lawlessness domestically, an abandoned mastery over …
Continue reading “2218 – 2223 EVT – Complex Catastrophes (Mamominarch)”
