(Last updated 28 Feb 22 20:50 CET: added access to UN General Assembly Live) At 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special military operation”. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack. What is happening on the ground? How are events unfolding? How is the …
Author Archives: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management
Question: “What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?”
Answer: For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future.
It answers a question about the future.
It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question….
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Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …
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Russia vs the U.S. – The OSCE Istanbul Document
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Within the context of the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., Russia, on 1st February 2022, through its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov invokes an article of a 1999 agreement (Reuters, 1 February 2022). What is is this agreement and which article does Lavrov use? The 1999 agreement is actually the …
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Speech at Alterre Day: Unsustainable! Towards Solutions…
On 21 January 2022, Alterre Bourgogne Franche-Comté organises its yearly conference Alterre Day on the theme: Unsustainable! Which solutions for a better and desirable world?VISIO CONFÉRENCE – 21 JANVIER 2022 Don’t miss Alterre day Book your day (conference in French) to follow the speakers who will demonstrate that there is a need to enlighten public …
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Omicron Variant – “the Good, the Bad and the ‘Intriguing'” – Warning
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: Gerd Altmann) This brief article is an updated warning about the threat created by the Omicron variant. It is assessed with 15, 22 and 23 December 2021 information. It concerns a series of indications related to the risks of hospitalisation, to vaccination and to incubation period for the Omicron variant. …
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Omicron Variant – “Major, Imminent Threat” Warning
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: Gerd Altmann) This brief article is a warning assessed over 15 to 18 December 2021 about the very serious, indeed “major, imminent threat” created by the Omicron variant (Neil Ferguson in Emily Head, Dr Sabine L. van Elsland, “Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses“, ICL …
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Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – Three Scenarios
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Long COVID could be the next battle we have to fight and win in our struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, in this article, we seek to assess Long COVID in the framework of the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. This will also give us possible indications regarding how Long …
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Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise
Strategic foresight and early warning are grounded in the idea of preventing surprise and more specifically strategic surprise. However, if we move away from the general idea of “strategic surprise” and try to be specific, i.e. if we try to apply the concept to a specific threat or issue we try to anticipate, then the …
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Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – The Hidden Pandemic
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) More than 110 million people have experienced or still suffer from Long COVID since the start of the pandemic (Chen Chen et al., full references and detail of calculation below). This is the number that follows from the findings of a study systematically reviewing the research done on Long COVID until …
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