In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, “The Rise of the Renminbi” being one of them. With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading …
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Space Mining, Artificial Intelligence and Transition?
Is space mining the short and long-term future for energy and industry? Nowadays, this question is rooted in the rapid development of the industrial, financial, technological and legal apparatus around the idea of mining asteroids. For example, on 6 January 2015, the US President, then Barack Obama, signed the US commercial space launch competitiveness act. …
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Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy
With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …
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Blockchain, not Bitcoin, the Next Game-Changer?
In this article, we shall analyse the drivers behind the rise in cryptocurrencies’ value and market capitalization and start envisioning future evolutions, focusing notably on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Previously, we explained what is a cryptocurrency and highlighted the possible revolutionary impact of blockchain, the technology underlying the majority of cryptocurrencies. We, meanwhile described the …
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Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?
Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a …
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Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning – The New AI-World in the Making
This article focuses on Deep Learning, the sub-field of Artificial Intelligence that leads the current exponential development of the sector. As we seek to envision how a future AI-powered world will look and what it will mean to its actors, notably in terms of politics and geopolitics, it is indeed fundamental to first understand what is AI.
We shall first give examples of how Deep Learning is used in the real world. We distinguish two types of activities: classical AI-powered activities and totally new AI-activities, related to the very emergence of DL. In both cases we shall point out their revolutionary potential.
Then, we shall take a deeper dive in the world of Deep Learning, taking as practical example the evolution of Google’s DeepMind AI-DL program initially developed to win against human Go masters: AlphaGo, then AlphaGo Zero and finally AlphaZero. After briefly presenting where DL is located within AI, we shall focus first on Deep Neural Networks and Supervised Learning. Second we shall look at the latest evolution with Deep Reinforcement Learning and start wondering if a new AI-DL paradigm, which could revolutionise the current dogma regarding the importance of Big Data, is not emerging.
Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions
Impacts and Consequences Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see : Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies Human talents as stake in rising AI competition “Forced” introduction of “open …
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The Renminbi on the Tracks of the U.S. Dollar?
China has entered a “new era” where it should “take centre stage in the world” said President Xi Jinping during his opening speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18-24 October) (Xi Jinping: “Time for China to take centre stage”, BBC News, 18 October 2017). This is poised to have …
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Signal: U.S. President Trump’s Statement on Jerusalem
On 6 December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and, as a result will move its embassy there (see sources below), while also reasserting commitment to the peace process and specifying that the U.S. would support a two-state solution, if approved by both the Israelis …
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Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report
Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …
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