Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➚➚ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region➘ ➙ Saudi Arabia’s influence➘ ? Saudi Arabia – Iran tensions ➚ ? ➃ Russia’s influence➘➘ ➃ U.S. influence ➘ ➄ Syrian Kurds prospects ➚ ➃ Russia’s influence trial in Syria➘➚? ➃ Middle East Tension As the internationally abandoned Iraqis Kurds appear to have, at least temporarily, not only lost their bid for …
Category Archives: Geopolitics by Geographical Regions
Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over
Impact on Issues ? ➂ towards ➃ The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➚➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Update 15:45 – …
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Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target
Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)? ➄ Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin ➚ ➚ ➃ Iran influence➚ ➄ Syrian future ➚ ➃ Israel perception of threat ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial Turkey President Erdogan old the parliamentary group of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Oct. 24 that: “Our operation in Idlib is nearly complete. Ahead of us is Afrin. These are threats to us and we will never make concessions to such threats.” For previous and …
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Signals: China’s Xi Jinping Thought, Real Economy and … Global Finance
Impact on Issues ➚ ➁ China opposes the financialization of the Chinese economy ➚ ? China will have to oppose the actors of global finance (high uncertainty) ➚ Successful development of Chinese economy ➚ Improvement of the economies of “countries under financialization” (e.g. most of Western countries) ➚ Restart of prosperity trend within “countries under financialization” (e.g. most of …
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Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy
Impact on Issues ? Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy? ? The end of an Italian nation? ? The future of the Italian State? ? The Italian South reaction ? ➚➚ ➁ Deep changes for the nations and their modern-state, and “liberal democracies”, within the EU… and globally (high uncertainty) ? The EU structure (including staff) and governance must …
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China: Towards the Digital and Ecological Revolution?
“Airpocalypse” turns the air of the great Chinese cities into a kind of chronic and massive chemical attack. Meanwhile, ecological issues are gaining a new and strong political traction. In the meantime, China is also becoming a world leader of the digital transformation. In other words, two major dynamics run through China in the same …
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Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel
Impact on Issues ? ➃ Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➘ ?➂ Legitimacy of Kurdish political authorities and parties ➚➚ Iran influence in Iraq and in the region➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ Russia ‘s involvement and stake➚ Israel’s stake➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial Heavy exchanges of fire are (20 Oct 2017 morning CET) taking place in the north of Kirkuk between the Kurdish Peshmergas and the Iraqi forces. By 12:30 (Iraqi time), Altun Kupri (north of Kirkuk) would have fallen to Iraqi forces, including the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), Iraqi Shiite militia backed by the Iranian Quds. Peshmergas had taken position North of Kirkuk …
Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa
Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚ ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas. Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most …
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Signal: Libya’s Council of Representatives Dialogue Committee Abandons Peace Negotiations
Impact on Issues ➚ ➀ / ➄ Failed peace talks / Continued war in Libya On Monday 16 October 2017 evening, the Council of Representatives (COR) dialogue committee suspended its participation in the Tunisia-hosted peace negotiations with the Government of National Accord (GNA). For previous and other signals check the Horizon Scanning Board According to the …
Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying …
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