A database of open source 2012 predictions, and graph on selected issues.
Category Archives: Methodology of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning
Trial by Fire for Foresight: The 2012 Predictions of The Economist
The Economist shows the lead in a courageous yet hardly ever done exercise: going back to our own foresight and assess, in the light of the present, what was right and what was wrong. It provides us with an example of how such lessons learned could be endeavoured, underlines questions that should be asked and key challenges for anticipation, and exemplifies how biases can derail foresight.
Pattern – Higher Global Temperatures, Earlier Impacts and the Shale Fuels Bounty
We most probably need to get ready for a 2C temperature rise and its harsh impact on the world relatively rapidly as a temperature rise of 6C – and above – by the end of the century is increasingly probable. Indeed, interests and current challenges and tensions are most likely to favour shale fuels’ production and policies and adversely affect “green efforts”. Other ecological adverse impacts on global security issues such as water and biodiversity may be enhanced and must be monitored. Citizens’ mobilization on those issues may evolve as trade-offs will be done, and as impacts will be felt.
Pattern – Towards Polarization in the Western World?
The pattern that has been emerging over at least the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century is a rising polarization within Western society – or societies. In this article, we identified and analysed the trend through the related signal – the 14 November 2012 strikes. We evaluated the evolution toward polarization as …
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The Power of Maps
Maps are both necessary tools for analysis and crucial delivery visuals for foresight and warning products. They constitute a very powerful type of delivery form, as they change both the world and the mind. The pivotal importance of maps and of the process of mapping has notably been shown, in the case of the birth of nations and of nationalism, by two remarkable books: Imagined Communities by Benedict Anderson and Siam Mapped: A History of the Geo-Body of a Nation by Winichakul Thongchai. Building upon the findings of those master-works, as well as on my own (PhD) research, this post explains the power of maps and then outlines contemporary evolutions, examples and possibilities. Why are maps special instruments of power? …
Water Security Maps
You will find below a selection of maps related to global water security, which are useful for both analysis and delivery of products.Maps are both necessary tools for analysis and crucial delivery visuals for our foresight and warning products. They constitute a category of delivery form, which can, furthermore, be combined with other categories to suit at best our needs.The maps under copyrights that do not allow fair free use (C.C.) are filed at the bottom of the post.National Intelligence Council (US), ODNI – 2012: Global Water Security MapMap attached to the 2012 Global Water Security, an Intelligence Community AssessmentAquastat (FAO) mapsAQUASTAT is FAO’s global information system on water and agriculture, developed by the Land and Water Division. The maps section …
The Sigils
The Sigils are designed as a series of daily scans exploring the horizon for weak (and less weak) signals related to various issues relevant to geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Such scans can be of interest to all actors, namely citizens, the corporate sector, NGOs and domestic and international political authorities. We selected a couple of …
Pearltrees: a multifunction visual bibliographic tool
While preparing the bibliography on energy security foresight, I was wondering if it would be useful to also apply a visually appealing approach to bibliographies, which would then be conceptualized as a product. As usual, there is no simple answer to this question, and if the classical bibliography will most probably have to be kept for a while, Pearltrees also appears as a perfect bibliographic tool. Inevitable classical bibliography Because delivery of product must consider both the product’s material support and the recipient or customer, then the traditional way to write a bibliography will probably have to be kept for some time. Indeed, for anything that uses paper and print as support, the usual, alphabetical bibliography is best. It is …
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2213 – 2218 EVT – Tragic events
Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate’s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.
The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. In that case, ….
Images to illustrate Complexity Science & Strategic Foresight and Warning
Images related to complexity science I found useful in putting together a presentation dealing with Strategic Foresight and Warning and Complexity
