Impact on Issues ? Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy? ? The end of an Italian nation? ? The future of the Italian State? ? The Italian South reaction ? ➚➚ ➁ Deep changes for the nations and their modern-state, and “liberal democracies”, within the EU… and globally (high uncertainty) ? The EU structure (including staff) and governance must …
Continue reading “Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying …
Continue reading “Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…”
Impact on Issues ➘➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. It is however unlikely events will unfold that simply and peacefully, considering Spain position on 10 October evening. A lull or …
Impact on Issues ➘ + ➙ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) – ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states, as well as worldwide? Independence is meant to be declared by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont on 10 …
Continue reading “Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising. Note two main points in terms of …
Continue reading “Signals – Spain and Catalonia: Constitutional Court Order, Media Polarization…”
Impact on Issues ➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King. This is a worrying signal that is highly …
Continue reading “Signal: Spanish King statement on Catalonia referendum”
On 24 June 2016 morning, the U.K. announced the results of the referendum on the Brexit: 51.9% of the population voted to leave the EU against 48.1% wanting to remain, while the turnout reached 72,2% (BBC Referendum Results). This vote triggered among the media, financial and European political elite a “shock”, consternation, and a host of predictions of impending doom, while markets plunged worldwide (BBC News, “Brexit: What the world’s papers say“, 24 June 2016). It also set off a series of events and dynamics still unfolding nowadays with far-ranging consequences, globally, for the future.We shall use this real life case to further enhance our understanding of the way businesses and the corporate world relate to and especially anticipate or rather …
Continue reading “Lessons from and for the Brexit – Geopolitics, Uncertainties, and Business (2)”
Editorial – Gilman’s Plutocratic Criminal Insurgency and Current Wars – We have been monitoring and analyzing how the current paradigm is shifting, while wondering what could be the future of political authorities, both elements being absolutely crucial if we are to provide pertinent strategic foresight and warning analyses. In this framework, the article by Nils Gilman, associate chancellor at …
Climate change is not only a far away danger. Its effects have also most probably already started impacting us, as the rising number of natural catastrophes and related overall losses worldwide show. What are the consequences on states and governments? Should we continue reducing public expenditures in those conditions?
The Chronicles of Everstate: a practical example of foresight analysis As example of a detailed scenario and how to create one, besides usual posts, Red (team) Analysis will publish a new part of the Chronicles of Everstate, a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of potential futures for the governance of our …
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