The East Seas Security Sigils

The East Seas Security Sigils is an unedited daily scan. It focuses on security in the East Seas. It has run since May 2012. Access it below. Come back everyday for an updated scan, with new signals. A brief presentation The East Seas Security Sigils aims to allow monitoring easily with open source what is happening …

From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning

Some keys to understand Chinese perceptions on the Diaoyu Islands, and to assess the potential evolution of its position in the future.

How to Analyze Future Security Threats (5): Scenarios and Crises

This article is the fifth of a series looking for a methodology that would fulfil the challenging criteria demanded by our time, notably in terms of speed and resources. The previous article focused on how to build scenarios for war. Here we look at scenarios for situations qualified as non-violent crises, taking mainly as example the crisis between China and Japan in the East China Sea over the Diaoyu (China)/Senkaku (Japan) Islands. War or crisis? It is important, first, to note that the words used in political discourses to qualify a situation may create an element of confusion when we think about an issue such as crisis, conflict and war. Actors may have many reasons for using euphemisms rather than …

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No89, 28 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National security No89 – Look East: Indicators are turning red! The possibility of war – between China and Japan… and the US (security treaties can also have an escalating effect) and ? – is now very much on the agenda, despite all wishful thinking and previous disbelief. The dire financial situation of Japan, which everyone tries so hard to ignore, while US potential sequestration shockwaves nears and Europe polarizes, are not the most stabilizing context and factors. We had a window of opportunity, at the beginning of February, it closed. Shall we see another opening up of “the funnel of choices” (Nye, 1993: 68-69)?

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No88, 21 February 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security No88

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No82, 10 January 2013

Horizon Scanning for National Security – No82 – On relativity: If, for example, we believe that Greece will be in the G20 in 7 years or that we are at the end of the economic crisis, notably in Europe, that “new oil” developments and use of coal are very positive, then, Australia’s heat index or European unemployment figures or Basel’s new liquidity rule might be (only “might” of course) weak signals that something is amiss… if we don’t believe the initial statements then those indications are strong signals of escalation, among so many others.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No71, 25 October 2012

No71 – 25 October 2012 Four main themes or meta issues today, none of them surprising, but all of them showing rising tensions and further problems: China… and Japan; Near-East/Middle-East; Europe’s crisis, Environmental changes and energy. To these add a few interesting developments in terms of capabilities and technologies… Click on image to read on …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No69, 11 October 2012

No69 – 11 October 2012 Potential stabilisation in the East China Sea, with a move from Japan, still uncertain improvement considering Japanese domestic tensions. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East and in Europe deteriorates. Most notably, the participation of reservists to the demonstrations yesterday in Greece could be a weak signal of potential escalation. …

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No68, 4 October 2012

No68 – 4 October 2012 Click on image to read on Paper.li.

The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No67, 27 September 2012

No67 – 27 September 2012 The overall global situation is seriously deteriorating and escalating, with one more potential flashpoint in the Far East (Diaoyu Islands: China and Taiwan, Japan, and the other strategic players of the region, i.e. the two Korea, the U.S., Russia) and, to make things worst, many who are just insisting everything …

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