The aim of the East Seas Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on security in the East Seas, as explained below.

We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better East Seas Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023.

A brief presentation

The East Seas Security Sigils aims to allow monitoring easily with open source what is happening in the East Seas, beyond an exclusive focus on Taiwan. As a scan, it helps following impacts of actions, and their potential for escalation and stabilisation (read Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Warning: Definition and Practice).

Considering the risk of spill-over from one problem onto the other, the East Seas Security Sigils focuses on potential and actual tensions in the East China Sea, the East Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, thus taking Northeast Asia as unit of analysis. Northeast Asia, then, should also be considered in its larger regional and global dimension.

In these three “East Seas”, we find territorial disputes involving Japan*, and stemming from history, which are, namely:

  • The dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (China and Taiwan/Japan) – Read also Helene Lavoix, “From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning
  • The dispute over the Liancourt Rocks (Japan/South Korea)
  • The dispute over the Southern Kuril Islands (Japan/Russia)
map of the disputed areas around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, Liancourt Rocks, Kuril Islands

The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens.

*China/Taiwan and South Korea/North Korea issues are not here the prime focus of interest. Understanding the other stakes in the region is nonetheless key for a better comprehension of tensions around Taiwan, and more generally in the region.

Featured image: A map of the capitals of the past dynasties – Modern Signature Honil Gangri Yeokdae National Road Map Call Code 假108 Author (Chinese) 權近 外 … [等著] Compilation (Hangul) Kwon Geun et al. ] Year of publication 1402 (Taejong 2) Publisher [Unknown publisher] Number of books 1 book Size 158 x 168 cmThe original material is the director of Ryukoku University in Japan, and the Kyujanggak Institute for Korean Studies is a colored copy of Professor Lee Chan. Original: Quan Jinwai Prof. Chan Lee’s color reproduction., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Published by Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the President/CEO of The Red Team Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for international relations, national and international security issues. Her current focus is on the war in Ukraine, international order and the rise of China, the overstepping of planetary boundaries and international relations, the methodology of SF&W, radicalisation as well as new tech and security.

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