The Shale Oil and Gas Security Sigils

The aim of the Shale Oil and Gas Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on security related to shale oil and gas.

We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better East Seas Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023.

Although technological experimentations to extract shale gas and oil started in the 19th century, it is only in the 1980s and 1990s they started being commercially exploited on a relatively large-scale in the U.S., and in 2005 that production truly meaningfully took off, first in the Barnett Shale with shale gas (EIA, 2011). Since then, production of both shale oil and shale gas is seen as a game-changer, already operative in the U.S., potential in those countries with reserves. Shale fuels remain controversial, notably considering the various environmental risks, the social opposition and distrust, the uncertainty regarding recoverable reserves, the evolution of technology and regulations, and the opposite interests of different actors.

shale oil, shale gas, fracking, peak oil

The rising concern about shale fuels and the way they are produced, “fracking” (properly “hydraulic fracturing”, the technology used to recover shale gas and oil) is perfectly exemplified by the results obtained in volume with Google search for the years 2004, 2008 and 2012. The Google Trends curves below (representing percentages, not quantities) also underline concern about fracking. There, however, interest in shale gas increases more than concern for shale oil (also probably because “shale gas” tends to cover all shale related fuels) while peak oil becomes less trendy. This also reminds us that information and analysis are and will be one of the arena where the power struggles for or against shale fuels takes place.

Considering the crucial importance of energy for our civilization and its impact on the environment (this needs to be reminded as the curves below would be dwarfed by other search terms like “baseball,” “football,” or “Oscars”), it is necessary to keep abreast of developments in this area to be able to anticipate potential evolutions in this fluid and volatile context, as well as to read documents from all sources if one wants to obtain, in fine, as objective as possible a judgement on the future.

The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens.

EIA, Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays, 2011.

Featured image: Cozy Dell Formation — Giant shale rip-up clast at the base of a high-density turbidite. In the Topatopa Mountains, Ventura County, Southern California.By Mikesclark (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Beyond Fear of Near-Earth Objects: Mining Resources from Space?

In February 2013, the fall of a meteor in Russia’s Urals (e.g. “Meteorite hits Russian Urals: Fireball explosion wreaks havoc, up to 1,200 injured“, RT, 15 Feb 2013), added to the close fly-by of Asteroid 2012 DA14, and to reports of a meteorite sighted over Cuba, reignited a renewed interest for near-earth objects (NEOs), notably because of the threat they may constitute to the earth and its inhabitants. Yet, NEOs are not only about dangers and Armageddon scenarios, they may also well be an opportunity. The possibility to use resources from space also exists and may be seen as a major wild card, which could completely upset most scenarios on resources and energy issues, thus constituting a “grey swan,” to use Taleb’s terminology. From dream …

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The Space Resources and Security Sigils

The aim of the Space Resources and Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on space and international security.

We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Space Resources and Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023.

An opening article on the importance of space resources as their use should be a reality some time into the future (end of the 2020s? 2030s?) can be found here.

The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens.

Featured image: An asteroid mining mission to an Earth-approaching asteroid by Denise Watt, NASA, public domain via Wikimedia Commons

Extreme Environments Security

In its Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, the UK Ministry of Defence, Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), underlined that “resource and the environment” was one of the major dimensions shaping the future. Notably, the highly likely growing resource scarcity would lead to strengthened interest in what they call “Extreme Environments” – i.e. the deep sea, space, the Arctic, Antarctica and the deep underground – and in their exploitation.

“The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.” p.115 Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040

Here we shall progressively explore the future security components of those extreme environments, understand what they entail, how they could interact with and modify other issues and the futures we foresee, as well as impact actors, as both opportunities and threats. Regular scans on specific issues are mentioned in the related sections below.

Deep-sea resources security

Space resources

The Arctic region

See all Arctic related in-depth articles.

Antarctica

See all Antarctica related articles

Deep underground

None

The picture was made out of the following images:

An asteroid mining mission to an Earth-approaching asteroid by Denise Watt, NASA, public domain via Wikimedia Commons.
Earth seafloor crust age 1996 by NOAA, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
Nuclear icebreaker “Yamal” on its way to the North Pole By Wofratz (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons.
Map of Antarctica from en:Image:Antarctica.jpg – Political map and research stations (2002) – CIA – Public domain.
Blender3D_EarthQuarterCut.jpg by SoylentGreen, Earth-Texture is from NASA) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons.

Assessing End of Year Predictions: How Did they Fare? (2)

The evaluation of our 2012 predictions’ sample underlines notably a widespread conventional view of national security, novel issues being ignored; a relative inability to assess timing whilst our understanding of issues fares relatively well; the existence of major biases, notably regarding China, Russia, and the U.S; the difficulty of prediction for novel issues and old issues in new context.

An Experiment in Assessing End of Year Predictions (1)

This post will present the experiment – assessing a sample of open source predictions for the year 2012 – address the methodological problems encountered while creating the evaluation itself, and underline the lessons learned. The second part (forthcoming) will discuss results.

Useful Rules for Strategic Foresight and Risk Management from Taleb’s The Black Swan

This second article on The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasises some of the author’s points that are crucial for foresight and warning. Likewise, they are necessary for any work dealing with the future and its anticipation, from risk management to horizon scanning through early warning. The methodology of SF&W and risk management allows addressing these points. They should become rules and principles all analysts follow. Indeed, without paying attention to them, good analysis is impossible. The first article on The Black Swan can be accessed here.Humility(Notably pp.190-200) Considering uncertainty, but also our imperfect condition of human beings, the complexity of the social world, feedbacks, our more than insufficient knowledge and understanding, we must …

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Taleb’s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?

Since Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, “Black Swans” and “Black Swans events” have become part of everyday language. They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case in the Brookings interesting interactive “briefing book” Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama’s Second Term, “black swans” represent high impact, low probability events, what is also known as wild cards.[i] Second, “black swans” refer to events that could absolutely not be predicted, as, for example for the Economist in ”The prediction games: Our winners and losers from last year’s edition”. Unfortunately, in this case, the label “black swans” excuses foresight …

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The Red (team) Analysis Weekly No83, 17 January 2013

Towards a multiplication of increasingly fragile states? This is what could mean the report on the state of infrastructures in the U.S. (and probably other so called rich countries?). It is a crucial weak signal that could trump all others: imagine weak, increasingly fragile “rich countries” on the backdrop of all the other tensions and threats…

Click on image to read on Paper.li or scroll down to access current issue below.