The articles in this section focus directly on real world issues with geopolitical stakes.
Here you will find in-depth analyses.They are sorted out by issues presented below. You can also access our scans, i.e. information collected to identify signals, presented without analysis.
Then, we explain how we select issues and finally you can access the latest articles published.
French translations: Only recent articles are human translations. We gradually review the automatic translation (DeepL) of the remaining 600 plus articles…
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Geopolitics by Issues
Access the articles in this section by chapters.
Our new initiative Climate Change, Planetary Boundaries and Geopolitical Stakes – incl. Water security, Energy security and Extreme environments (Arctic, Antarctica, Space, Deep Sea, etc.) besides Environmental Geostrategy
Pandemics – incl. the COVID-19 Pandemic
War – incl. Ukraine, The Islamic State, Syria, Libya
Photos and Art Design by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli (images 1,3,6), Pixabay (2,5), various public domain (4).
Monitoring and Scanning
Our scanning and monitoring is grounded in years of practice and in-depth knowledge and experience of research for political and geopolitical issues.
Our complimentary scans are discontinued. We only provide scans on a commissioned basis.
The Sigils: a series of daily, raw (non edited) scans. Each focuses on a specific issue.
The Red Team Analysis Weekly scanned the horizon every week for weak – and less weak – signals regarding all political and geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as national and global changes and instability, using crowdsourcing.
Horizon Scanning Board
(demonstration sample only) – The system provides selected open source intelligence – OSINT – signals that are particularly interesting, among all the signals identified. The collection of signals provided here are a demonstration sample only.
Photos from ESO Photo Ambassadors
How we select geopolitical issues
In this section, we address the major issues our contemporary world faces. These issues may obviously be part of geopolitics, for example the crisis and conflict in Ukraine or the Islamic State and terrorism. They may also surprise you because they are not usually think about as related to geopolitics, as with the COVID-19 pandemic.
What determines if an issue must be put under watch and analysed is the impact it has on the security of polities and societies, hence the larger field of “international security”, which is more adequate as a category than geopolitics.
The issues we address may be mainstream and correspond to acute crises at one stage, or, on the contrary ignored by the media and larger public.
It is absolutely crucial to consider the issues belonging to the second category. Indeed the deeper processes run in the background, often below collective perception level, but fundamentally influence and constrain our choices. They must thus be known and explored. Furthermore, they will often lead to apparently sudden crises. If we make an analogy with volcanoes, you can imagine these deeper dynamics and issues as the earth mantle and plates, slowly changing and reorganising themselves, while this very reorganisation leads to pressure and volcanic eruption. A perfect example for this type of issues is climate change and all environmental problems.
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Our latest articles
- The war in Gaza and China’s pivot to the Middle East
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the speed and political density of the historic sequence opened by the Gaza war, the first article in this new RTAS series covers only the period from 7 to 27 October 2023. Introduction: A new war in a new Middle East On 27 October 2023, Israel’s military launched …Continue reading “The war in Gaza and China’s pivot to the Middle East”
- How to Create New Civilizations (1)? Challenges and Pressures
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The first decades of the 21st century present human societies with many challenges. At times, it appears our very civilizations are at stake. Can we create new better-adapted civilizations? What are the alternatives? What can we learn from the works that have examined the history of civilisations? Between the …Continue reading “How to Create New Civilizations (1)? Challenges and Pressures”
- The Red Team Analysis Society selected for Frontex June 2023 Industry Days
We are happy to share with our readers our selection for Frontex June 2023 Industry days. Frontex explains what are its Industry days as follows: “Frontex assists the EU countries in supporting the development of modern technologies for the European Border and Coast Community. As part of its mandate, Frontex regularly meets with industry, researchers, …Continue reading “The Red Team Analysis Society selected for Frontex June 2023 Industry Days”
- Climate Breakdown: Towards War to Reduce CO2 Emissions?
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) “Climate breakdown has begun” warned UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement released on 6 September 2023. Globally, throughout the 2023 Summer, the world has lived through the beginning of the turmoil and havoc that climate change and related temperature rise bring. Repeated heatwaves, related air pollution “with knock-on …Continue reading “Climate Breakdown: Towards War to Reduce CO2 Emissions?”
- Climate Emergency, AI and the (Necessary ?) Rise of Geoengineering
In the 2002 post-apocalyptic-movie “Reign of fire”, the last human colonies are exterminated by dragons burning the remnants of already poor crops. In 2023, the emergence of an early and powerful El Niño event amid the planetary effects of global warming raises the question of its geopolitical consequences in a world rocked by the war …Continue reading “Climate Emergency, AI and the (Necessary ?) Rise of Geoengineering”
- Challenge Your Beliefs with the AI Sphinx
Try Sphinx to challenge your beliefs, assumptions and hypotheses. Sphinx is an AI assistant designed to challenge assumptions, reinforce arguments, and identify blind spots. It uses OpenAI’s GPT3.5 model and the Red Team Analysis Society’s methodology and knowledge base to provide a devil’s advocate perspective. In this article, we also explore the importance of challenging assumptions and showcase what Sphinx can achieve with the example of climate change. - Exploring cascading impacts with AI
Strategic foresight, early warning and risk management require evaluating possible impacts beyond direct effects. Explore cascading effects with Pithia’s AI-powered form. Discover what could be the cascading impacts of a very rapid adoption of generative AI across actors in the Western world… as identified by our AI. - War in Ukraine, the 2023 Super El Niño and Global Disruptions – Anthropocene Wars 8
Since its very outbreak in March 2022, the geopolitical and economic effects of the war in Ukraine have combined with the cascading consequences of climate change (Jean-Michel Valantin, “War in Ukraine, The U.S Mega drought and the Coming Global Food Crisis”, The Red Team Analysis Society, May 1, 2022). In 2023, it is very likely that … - Foreseeing the Future with ChatGPT?
Discover how AI, particularly GPT-like models, can help anticipate the future, and why it matters in the fields of geopolitics and security. In this series of articles, we explore how to ensure technology remains a tool to serve us rather than becoming a slave to it. The first article looks at what GPT models are, why they matter in terms of jobs and occupations, and tests ChatGPT on a specific foresight question.
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