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Author Archives: Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Scans for Weak Signals
A way to say good bye to the Weekly! Stay put, we are working on something new and exciting… Scans and signals Using horizon scanning, periodically, we can collect weak – and less weak – signals. The signals point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics …
The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 30 March 2023
(The photo was taken by Stefan Seip, one of the ESO Photo Ambassadors This is the 30 March 2023 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks or, more largely, conventional and unconventional national and international security (open access). Scroll down to access the scan. As paper.li, the platform we use to create …
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Early Warning for Individuals and Small Businesses – Overcoming Energy Insecurity
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) How can individuals and small business leaders protect themselves against the crises and upheavals that seem to be imposed on them? Can they take advantage of tools that are generally reserved for state actors, especially security forces, and sometimes for large companies? Can such a tool, early warning, be useful for …
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The ENA of Tunis – Training in Early Warning
In early December 2022, the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (National School of Administration -ENA) de Tunis and its Institute of Leadership Administratif invited the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their incarceration in Tunisia – READ of the Civipol expertise programme for the European Commission to provide a first initiation in Early …
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For the ESFSI and the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia – Trainings in Early Warning
This Autumn 2022, from mid-November to early December, we were honoured to deliver various training programs in Early Warning and Indicators in Tunisia. This cooperation takes place within the framework of the support given to the Ministry of the Interior of Tunisia by the project supporting the rehabilitation of at-risk populations during and after their …
Can You Unbias Analysis? The Russian Nuclear Threat
Starting in mid-September 2022, the Western media and political world has been abuzz with a Russian threat of nuclear Armageddon. Against such evil, the West, supporting Ukraine, may only show outrage, unveil the real malevolent nature of Russia and increase pressure to try to deter Russia, so runs the narrative. On 27 October 2022, reputable …
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An Alternative Red Scenario for the war between Ukraine and Russia
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The September 2022 Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia is hailed as very successful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the “true heroes” who allowed for a “very rapid liberation” of 8000 sq km by 14 September 22 “in the east, notably in the Kharkiv Oblast, and the south, notably in the Kherson oblast”, …
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The War between China and the U.S. – The Normative Dimension
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The whole world is caught in a battle of giants with the U.S. on the one hand and China on the other. This confrontation takes place at different levels and through all forms and dimensions of power. The escalation towards war is at work. War is not inevitable, it is however …
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The American National Interest
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Do the United States still consider France to be their ally? We have to ponder this question because of the submarine contract signed between France and Australia, and broken in September 2021, to the benefit of the U.S.. If a country takes 35 billion euros from you, possibly revalued to 55 …
