Category Archives: Europe

Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy

With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …

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China and the United Kingdom “Golden Relationship” on the Belt and Road

In 2015, on the eve of his first state visit to the UK, the Chinese President Xi Jinping praised the “visionary and strategic choice” of the British government and its will to build a “golden era” of Sino-British relationships (“Xi Jinping visit: UK-China ties will be lifted to new height”, BBC News, 20 October 2015). …

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The Russian Arctic, China’s (Digital) Development and Northern Europe

Massive geopolitical changes are occurring in the Arctic, because of the rapid warming of this region due to climate change. These geopolitical shifts are particularly important in the Russian Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, which spans from the Bering Strait to Norway, along the Siberian coast. This is where Russia develops the North East passage known …

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Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK); Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising …

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Signal: Libya and Italy Increase Efforts to Combat Migrant Smuggling

Impacts and Consequences If the planned center truly becomes operational and efficient, which cannot be estimated with confidence currently considering unknowns, Increased likelihood to mitigate spillover from the Libyan conflict Facts and analysis Related Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods; Estimating Likelihoods (detailed): Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition; Narratives Sc 2.2 (2), …

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Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …

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Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? ➂ Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty). ➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➘➘➘ ➁  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations …

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Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over

Impact on Issues ? ➂  towards ➃  The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➚➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Update 15:45 – …

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Signal: Two Regions in Italy Vote Heavily for Autonomy

Impact on Issues ?  Italy, Lombardy and Veneto: towards autonomy? ? The end of an Italian nation? ? The future of the Italian State? ? The Italian South reaction ? ➚➚ ➁ Deep changes for the nations and their modern-state, and “liberal democracies”, within the EU… and globally (high uncertainty) ? The EU structure (including staff) and governance must …

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Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂  Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying …

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