Category Archives: Horizon Scanning Board

Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)? ➄ Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting militarily against the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin ➚ ➚   ➃ Iran influence➚  ➄ Syrian future ➚  ➃ Israel perception of threat ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial Turkey President Erdogan old the parliamentary group of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) on Oct. 24 that:“Our operation in Idlib is nearly complete. Ahead of us is Afrin. These are threats to us and we will never make concessions to such threats.”For previous and other signals …

Continue reading “Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target”

Impact on Issues ? ➃  Capacity (and willingness) of each actor to stabilize the situation  (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension ➘ ?➂ Legitimacy of Kurdish political authorities and parties ➚➚  Iran influence in Iraq and in the region➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ Russia ‘s involvement and stake➚ Israel’s stake➚ ➃  Russia influence trial➚ ➃  U.S. influence trial Heavy exchanges of fire are (20 Oct 2017 morning CET) taking place in the north of Kirkuk between the Kurdish Peshmergas and the Iraqi forces. By 12:30 (Iraqi time), Altun Kupri (north of Kirkuk) would have fallen to Iraqi forces, including the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), Iraqi Shiite militia backed by the Iranian Quds.Peshmergas had taken position North of Kirkuk on …

Continue reading “Signals: Heavy Fighting between Kurds and Iraqi Forces; Kurdish Factions; Russia; Israel”

Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚  ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future  (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas.Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most players, …

Continue reading “Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa”

Impact on Issues ➚➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum➘ Russia Influence➘ U.S. influence – ➙ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) The Iraqi attack on Peshmergas-controlled Kirkuk continued on 16 October and, as a result Iraqis forces, allegedly according to Kurds backed by Iranian Quds (special forces of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – IRGC), seized the city.The Kurds retreated rather than fought, which led to mutual accusations between the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to have abandoned the city. Internecine struggle thus continues to plague Kurdish actions and capacity to attain objectives.For previous and other signals check theHorizon …

Continue reading “Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…”