Whatever way one wants to see it, despite defeats in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the Philippines, the Islamic State has not disappeared and will most probably remain a feature of our world for some times. The regular terrorist attacks taking place throughout the world are there to remind us that to win over ideas – …
Category Archives: The Islamic State
Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum➘ Russia Influence➘ U.S. influence – ➚ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) Around Kirkuk, skirmishes have now taken place in the early hours of Monday 16 October 2017 between Iraqis troops and Hashd al-Shaabi forces (Popular Mobilization Forces – Shiite militias) on the one hand, Peshmergas from both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Meanwhile, civilians from Kirkuk would be ready to fight against Iraqi troops and would be joined, according to Kurdish Peshmergas, by civilians from Erbil, Duhok and Sulaimani. Tension or contradicting orders would also have taken place between different Peshmergas units. Contradicting statements …
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Signal: U.S. air strikes kill IS fighters in Libya
Impact on Issues ➘➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War /Libya The war waged by the Islamic State goes on… and the situation in Libya is not yet pacified. Both the war in Libya and the activity of the Islamic State (and al-Qaeda) must continue being monitored. U.S. air strikes kill 17 Islamic State …
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Signal: The Islamic State in the Philippines
Impact on Issues ➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War / South East Asia The Filipino army is still fighting the Islamic State in Marawi. The threat coming from the Islamic State in South East Asia (SEA) must neither be forgotten nor underestimated. Furthermore, the Islamic State may also develop the capacity to use South …
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Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (6) : The Psychological Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks
This article is the second of a two-parts of a series seeking to identify the impacts of the current and most probably forthcoming terrorist attacks by the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, and focuses on major socio-psychological consequences. It follows a first article, which started outlining a framework for impact assessment out of our current understanding of the economic consequences of terrorism, which notably pointed out the need to use mapping as methodology if the complex and cascading characters of these impacts are to be properly assessed. The larger aim of the series is notably to understand if businesses should or not neglect these aggressions and related geopolitical uncertainties, while finding out ways to foresee these risks so as to best design answers (see Helene Lavoix, “Businesses and Geopolitics: Caught up in the Whirlwinds? (1)”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, 17 Oct 2016)
To find out which could be the psychological impacts of the ongoing string of terrorist attacks, we
Scenarios for the Future of Libya – Sc 4.2 An Islamic State Victory
This article focuses on the second of the scenarios depicting a Salafist victory, where the Islamic State (IS) becomes the dominant force on the battlefield, defeats the other actors, and establishes the caliphate. In our previous scenario we detailed the scenario of an Al-Qaida victory where Al-Qaida groups in Libya dominate the battlefield and gradually implement Sharia through a grassroots strategy. Note: Considering the future names of potential factions that would result from a new split between the unity government, we shall use the label nationalist for those that supported the nationalist-dominated Council of Representatives (COR) and any future anti-Islamist factions; Islamist to note those that supported the General National Congress (GNC) and any future pro-political Islamic movements; and Salafist …
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The Impact of the Islamic State Terrorist Attacks – Geopolitics, Uncertainties and Business (5)
Since the Islamic State declared a Khilafah on 29 June 2014, it carried out, worldwide, 6 attacks or series of attacks in 2014, which killed 2 and wounded 12 people, 23 in 2015, which killed 1020 and wounded more than 2171, 36 in 2016, which killed more than 1455 and wounded more than 3505 and so far 3 in 2017, which killed more than 109 and wounded more than 169 people, assuming all attacks are known and referenced as such (Wikipedia “List of terrorist incidents linked to ISIL“). As a whole, we thus faced 68 attacks, during which more than 2586 people lost their lives and more than 5857 were injured. Prospects for the near future look no less grim as reminded …
Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – Truly Defend and Strike Back
This is the second part of the series looking for a third way to – truly – fight against the Islamic State’s – and other salafi-jihadi’s – terrorist attacks at home, away from polarisation. Unfortunately, in the light of the spat of terrorist attacks in Bangladesh, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, in France again and again, in Germany and on 22 March 2017 in London, especially considering the way these attacks were carried out, this series of two articles becomes even more salient (e.g. “1–2 July 2016 Dhaka attack“, Wikipedia; “Istanbul airport attack: Isis behind deaths of at least 41, PM says“, The Guardian, 29 June 2016; “Nineteen people arrested over Saudi Arabia attacks“, Al Jazeera, 8 July 2016, “Nice attack: At least …
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Fighting the Islamic State’s Terrorism at Home – The Third Way
On 12 and 13 June 2016, two terrorist attacks claimed by the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) reminded the Western population, with immediate impact on the U.K. “Brexit” polls (see below), that the war waged against them and all non-Salafis had not ended. The first attack took place against a gay nightclub in Orlando, U.S., killing 50 and wounding 48 people (e.g. BBC News, 13 June 2016). The second occurred in Magnanville, France (e.g. BBC News, 14 June 2016). There, a jihadi stabbed to death a police commanding officer, who was coming back from work, then killed the police officer’s partner under the eyes of their three and half boy in their home. The attacks generated political reactions showing that the debate has polarised but without truly evolving since the first recent …
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The Islamic State in Libya – When Libyan Tribes Pledge Allegiance to the Khalifah
The coming Battle for Sirte to defeat the Islamic State in Libya is principally seen from the perspective of the struggle between the U.N.-backed new government supported by some militias including Misrata, and those who refuse that government’s legitimacy, such as nationalist Haftar (e.g. “The scramble for Sirte”, The Economist, 14 May 2016. In the meanwhile, the Islamic State becomes an insignificant threat. Similarly, the situation on the ground, notably the tribes and related politics, are quasi ignored. Yet, it is crucial to have an understanding of what is happening, which goes beyond a top-down approach, and to consider also the perspective of the enemy, through red team analysis for example, as we are doing here. The consequences for not doing so may be deleterious, …
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