Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues Archives - Page 18 of 52

The Chinese-Russian Robot and Space Strategic Cooperation (2) – Russia

This article focuses on the Russian part of the mammoth space cooperation developed between Russia and China and potential geopolitical impacts. This cooperation is further reinforced by the agreement signed the 1 November 2017 that involves six space-related areas, such as lunar and deep space, joint spacecraft development, space electronics, Earth remote sensing data and space debris monitoring (“China, Russia agree cooperation on lunar and deep space exploration, other sectors”, Global Times, Nov 02, 2017). The Chinese part was addressed in the first article of the series. This Sino-Russian cooperation is a de facto synergy about a new definition of industrial and strategic power. Indeed, space industry evolutions as well as the convergence of Chinese and Russian artificial intelligence strategies added to robotic development …

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Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses

Impacts and ConsequencesThe main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain. The outcome in terms of American regional and global influence is also uncertain.The main other impacts areLower likelihood to see rapidly a constructive peace settling in for SyriaLower likelihood to see the creation of a Federal SyriaRising Middle East tensionRising global tensions, notably with the U.S. on the one hand, Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran on the other.(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)Facts and analysisFor …

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A Deeper Look at Cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple

This article explains further what a cryptocurrency is, with the examples of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, focusing on the most common underlying technology, the blockchain and its implementation. It underlines commonalities and differences between the three cryptocurrencies, starting highlighting their potential advantages and dangers compared with classical international currencies. It notably singles out one of the main challenges characterizing the Bitcoin phenomenon: energy sustainability.

Signal: China – France Strengthening Relations

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a return to a more influential and independent foreign policy of the European states holders of veto power at UN Security Council (France and UK); Increased likelihood to see a multipolar world settling in, however with also an Increased likelihood to see a global perception of a rising …

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The Chinese-Russian Robot and Space Strategic Cooperation (1) – China

On 1 November 2017, Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed a mammoth deal in space cooperation. That agreement involves six space-related areas, such as lunar and deep space, joint spacecraft development, space electronics, Earth remote sensing data and space debris monitoring (“China, Russia agree cooperation on lunar and deep space exploration, other …

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The Deep-Sea Resources Brief

Human societies currently face dwindling resources and rising competition for them in the contemporary “resources order.” Thus, besides and in accordance with other ways to handle this challenge, new types and sources of resources are increasingly valuable and can make a strategic difference for polities, as well as for humanity as a whole. Meanwhile, if we are to ever learn from our worrying present, we must also, continuously, make sure that the extraction and use of those new potential resources will not have any unfavourable impact on the planet and its ecosystem, including this biodiversity to which we belong.* As has now been known since the end of the nineteenth century (Ifremer, les Nodules, 2012), mineral resources lie on the …

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Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?

Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a …

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Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning – The New AI-World in the Making

This article focuses on Deep Learning, the sub-field of Artificial Intelligence that leads the current exponential development of the sector. As we seek to envision how a future AI-powered world will look and what it will mean to its actors, notably in terms of politics and geopolitics, it is indeed fundamental to first understand what is AI.
We shall first give examples of how Deep Learning is used in the real world. We distinguish two types of activities: classical AI-powered activities and totally new AI-activities, related to the very emergence of DL. In both cases we shall point out their revolutionary potential.
Then, we shall take a deeper dive in the world of Deep Learning, taking as practical example the evolution of Google’s DeepMind AI-DL program initially developed to win against human Go masters: AlphaGo, then AlphaGo Zero and finally AlphaZero. After briefly presenting where DL is located within AI, we shall focus first on Deep Neural Networks and Supervised Learning. Second we shall look at the latest evolution with Deep Reinforcement Learning and start wondering if a new AI-DL paradigm, which could revolutionise the current dogma regarding the importance of Big Data, is not emerging.

Signal: Google Opens Google AI China Center and Chinese Reactions

Impacts and Consequences Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see : Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies Human talents as stake in rising AI competition “Forced” introduction of “open …

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The Renminbi on the Tracks of the U.S. Dollar?

China has entered a “new era” where it should “take centre stage in the world” said President Xi Jinping during his opening speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18-24 October) (Xi Jinping: “Time for China to take centre stage”, BBC News, 18 October 2017). This is poised to have …

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