Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight …
Continue reading “Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot — And What You Can Do About It – Video”
(Art design – featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The tension between the U.S. and China, marked by constant ups and downs between the two giants, has become a permanent feature of the 21st-century international order. It impacts us all. It must be mainstreamed into our analyses, into the way we anticipate and foresee the future. What …
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli – Photo: The USS Gerald R. Ford US DVIDS) Thunder in the Caribbean Since 17 August 2025, the US Southern Command has dramatically scaled up its presence and activity in the Caribbean. For example, the Command has deployed 4,000 Marines against narco-terrorist cartels. There is also a massive naval …
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Aramco, the Saudi state-owned giant oil company has developed “Metabrain”, an extremely powerful Large Language Model (LLM), with 250 billion parameters, and a trillion parameters version planned for launch by the end of 2025. Metabrain is trained with the oil and geological data that the …
Continue reading “Petrodollars for AI – Is AI the Future of the Oil and Gas Industry ? “
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the extreme density of the strategic situations involved, the main focus of this article is the technological dimension of the “12 days war” between Israel and Iran, and the strategic meaning of those technological advances. A new way of war in the Middle East …
Continue reading “AI at War (5) – Israel, Iran and the New (AI) Way of War”
(U.S. Army’s MQ-1C Warrior UAV Photo Courtesy of U.S. Army – Public Domain) In December 2024, the Chinese government ordered one million kamikaze drones for the People’s liberation Army (Dylan Malyasov, “China places massive order for kamikaze drones”, The Defence Blog, 22 December 2024). During the same period, OpenAI, the U.S. giant of generative AI …
Continue reading “AI at War (4): The US-China Drone and Robot Race”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning. Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. …
Continue reading “How to use AI for Weak Signals – Trump, the International Revolutionary?”
Is China launching a strategic offensive against the dominance of the U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) and tech sector? And if this is the case, what is the meaning of this Chinese offensive? The question of a Chinese offensive on the U.S. tech and AI sector has been increasingly relevant over the last months (e.g. Foresight …
Continue reading “DeepSeek vs Stargate – China’s Offensive on U.S. AI Dominance?”
(Donald Trump with Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr, and Mike JohnsonCredit photo: from Office of Speaker Mike Johnson – Public Domain ) President-elect Donald Trump declared that Canada should become the “51st state” of the United States of America. He also repeats quite often that the U.S. should “buy Greenland” (Alexandra Sharp, “The 51st …
Continue reading “Trump Geopolitics – 1: Trump as the AI Power President”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliPhotos credits : Didier Descouens & Egor Kamelev) The uranium requirements created by the planned American nuclear renaissance are immense and unprecedented (see Helene Lavoix, “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance: Meeting Unprecedented Requirements (1)“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 27 November 2024). Yet, the production of uranium in the …
Continue reading “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance – 2: Towards a global geopolitical race”
