Horizon Scanning for National Security – No107 – Egypt: a complete game-changer – The events that have been taking place in Egypt as well as the reaction to them illustrate the potential end of a very shallow understanding of democracy since the end of World War II. This shallow understanding of democracy limited it to elections, thus to politician politics, with a complete disregard for all other values and ideals included within democracy and with a complete denial of the complex links existing between regime (democracy for example), state, and ruler (which is currently “the nation”). This shallow understanding went hand in hand with modernization…
Category Archives: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues
The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources
Contents Casualties, refugees and internally displaced people New type of analysis and collection The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield General Resources and Blogs Causes of conflict General Syrian War Actors NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA* General Muslim Brotherhood Sufism Pro Al-Assad Groups Salafi and Sunni Islamist Jihadi in Syria Kurds Alawites Christians Maps …
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Scenarios for Syria – 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria?
Despite the recent victory in Qusayr by the pro Al-Assad groups, and despite the strategic character of the city, this scenario seems to be unlikely, but not impossible, in a very near future. To obtain complete victory, we may assume that the regime of Bashar Al-Assad would continue and even strengthen his current strategy of …
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Scenarios for Syria – 3.3.2. A Truly Secular Syria?
This post will outline the last but one scenario for Syria for the short to medium term, i.e. “a Secular Syria” resulting from a real victory by one of the warring groups. Considering the current state of play, this scenario is unlikely, even utopic. Yet, imagining it will also suggest possible policy and strategy that could change the odds.
The various scenarios constructed over the last weeks are summarized in a graph, which starts exploring ways to look at sets of scenarios as a systemic and dynamic whole.
Scenarios for Syria 3. A Nationalist Islamic Syria or a Muslim Brotherhood’s Syria?
This post continues exploring various scenarios around the theme of “a real victory in Syria” by one or the other groups fighting on the ground, starting first with a Nationalist Islamic Syria, and then moving to a Syria under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. For each scenario, current estimates of likelihood will be outlined and some indicators influencing probability will be suggested.
Scenario for Syria – 3.1: A Real Victory – an Islamic Al-Sham?
Considering the current state of play, scenario 3: A Real Victory in Syria, and its sub-scenarios are rather unlikely in the short-term. However, they are worth outlining because they bring analytical insight into dynamics and potential strategies to favour or counter one or the other possibility, according to interests, and because they could be relevant for the …
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Scenarios for Syria 2: No Syrian in Geneva
Scenario rationale and explanation The diplomatic talks fail and the international conference in Geneva does not take place or is a face-saving sham (see “Scenario 1: Peace in Geneva?” and its sub scenarios for what could result from a true international conference). Considering the current forces on the ground and their balance, we would face …
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Scenarios for Syria – 1: Peace in Geneva?
(Updated 22 May 2013) Now that we know and understand better the actors present on the Syrian battlefield, we may start outlining scenarios regarding first plausible futures for Syria and prospects for peace over the short to medium term, and second the regional implications of those scenarios, as the regional and even global geostrategic dimensions …
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Nationalist Salafis and Global Jihadis in Syria
Detailed state of play for the Syrian Sunni Factions between May 2013 and January 2014 (open access) with actors mappings (members only).
The Kurds in the Syrian War
In 2013, the Kurds in Syria have their own agenda, which will determine their actions. As the other Kurdish communities in the region, their priority is to create a semi-autonomous Kurdistan where they live, notably in the NorthEast of Syria. Kurdish enclaves in Syria can also be found around Jarabulus – North – and Afrin – Northwest, North of Aleppo (Tejel, 2009: xiii). As analyzed by Spyer, their recent history tells the Kurds in Syria that mastering their own destiny is the only way to live decently and according to their own way of life, thus benefiting for once from the bounty of their land, in terms of oil and crops (Spyer, March 9 2013). The Syrian Kurds’ objective was again reasserted by Sipan Hamo, commander-in-chief of …
