Having evaluated the likelihood for each scenario for the future of Libya (see detail here), we shall now present updated likelihoods that account for changes that have taken place since we began the evaluations. Because both intervention and spillover are already undoubtedly occurring in Libya, our scenarios are now considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention …
Continue reading “Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension➚ Iran Iraqi and regional influence➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum➘ Russia Influence➘ U.S. influence – ➚ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) Around Kirkuk, skirmishes have now taken place in the early hours of Monday 16 October 2017 between Iraqis troops and Hashd al-Shaabi forces (Popular Mobilization Forces – Shiite militias) on the one hand, Peshmergas from both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Meanwhile, civilians from Kirkuk would be ready to fight against Iraqi troops and would be joined, according to Kurdish Peshmergas, by civilians from Erbil, Duhok and Sulaimani. Tension or contradicting orders would also have taken place between different Peshmergas units. Contradicting statements …
Continue reading “Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…”
Impact on Issues ➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) ➚ ➁ NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea ➚ ➁ World War ➘ Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy – ➘ Independent European Member …
Continue reading “Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…”
Impact on Issues ➚ ➀ ➁ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – ➘ U.S. influence – ➘ USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, even though it is still far behind the U.S. and Russia. It …
Continue reading “Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports”
Impact on Issues ➘➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. It is however unlikely events will unfold that simply and peacefully, considering Spain position on 10 October evening. A lull or …
Impact on Issues ➘ + ➙ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) – ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states, as well as worldwide? Independence is meant to be declared by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont on 10 …
Continue reading “Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia”
Impact on Issues ➘ ➁➀ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➙ ➄ Syria – ➘ ➀ Russia Conundrum➚ Russia Influence – ➘ ➃ Middle East Tension – ➘ U.S. influence Note 13 Oct: Latest signal 16 Oct 2017 as situation has considerably evolved since 11 Oct, showing the essential fluid character of the dynamics ate work. A flurry of diplomatic moves, visits and consultations …
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising. Note two main points in terms of …
Continue reading “Signals – Spain and Catalonia: Constitutional Court Order, Media Polarization…”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq – ➙ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum Turkey President Erdogan declaration would tend to confirm the harsh and unremitting position that Turkey, Iran and Iraq have been taking since the beginning on the issue of Iraqi Kurds independence. However, considering the Kurds will and resolve, as well as their recent history of being a major actor in the war against the Islamic State, and highly probable feeling of being thus treated unfairly, a triple blockade is highly unlikely to stabilize the situation. On the contrary, we may expect that the Iraqi Kurds will not relent but fight to see the results of the referendum implemented and their independence achieved. War …
Continue reading “Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence”
Impact on Issues ➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King. This is a worrying signal that is highly …
Continue reading “Signal: Spanish King statement on Catalonia referendum”
