Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
(Art direction and design; illustration created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Aramco, the Saudi state-owned giant oil company has developed “Metabrain”, an extremely powerful Large Language Model (LLM), with 250 billion parameters, and a trillion parameters version planned for launch by the end of 2025. Metabrain is trained with the oil and geological data that the …
Continue reading “Petrodollars for AI – Is AI the Future of the Oil and Gas Industry ? “
In April 2025, the Trump administration raised custom tariffs on most Chinese goods up to 145%. The Chinese reaction was to raise its own tariffs up to 125% (Jennifer Clark, “What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?”, BBC, 23 April, 2025). In this context, one must keep in mind that, since December 1978 …
Continue reading “Trump Geopolitics (2) – The US vs China Geoeconomic War”
(U.S. Army’s MQ-1C Warrior UAV Photo Courtesy of U.S. Army – Public Domain) In December 2024, the Chinese government ordered one million kamikaze drones for the People’s liberation Army (Dylan Malyasov, “China places massive order for kamikaze drones”, The Defence Blog, 22 December 2024). During the same period, OpenAI, the U.S. giant of generative AI …
Continue reading “AI at War (4): The US-China Drone and Robot Race”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning. Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. …
Continue reading “How to use AI for Weak Signals – Trump, the International Revolutionary?”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) In February 2025, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised the second session of its fifth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. That session built upon the October session, using what had been achieved then. In an intensive 35-hour …
Is China launching a strategic offensive against the dominance of the U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) and tech sector? And if this is the case, what is the meaning of this Chinese offensive? The question of a Chinese offensive on the U.S. tech and AI sector has been increasingly relevant over the last months (e.g. Foresight …
Continue reading “DeepSeek vs Stargate – China’s Offensive on U.S. AI Dominance?”
(Donald Trump with Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr, and Mike JohnsonCredit photo: from Office of Speaker Mike Johnson – Public Domain ) President-elect Donald Trump declared that Canada should become the “51st state” of the United States of America. He also repeats quite often that the U.S. should “buy Greenland” (Alexandra Sharp, “The 51st …
Continue reading “Trump Geopolitics – 1: Trump as the AI Power President”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliPhotos credits : Didier Descouens & Egor Kamelev) The uranium requirements created by the planned American nuclear renaissance are immense and unprecedented (see Helene Lavoix, “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance: Meeting Unprecedented Requirements (1)“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 27 November 2024). Yet, the production of uranium in the …
Continue reading “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance – 2: Towards a global geopolitical race”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The U.S. has planned for a Nuclear Renaissance. It aims to reach 300 GWe capacity by 2050 for nuclear energy and envisions two scenarios to reach this goal (U.S. Department of Energy -DOE, Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear, 30 September 2024). Developing the future American fleet of reactors implies …
Continue reading “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance – 1: Meeting Unprecedented Requirements”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of October 2024, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised the first session of its fifth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. This session ran concurrently with a crisis management module, highlighting the interconnected nature of …
