Impact on Issues ➙ ➀ / ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power. The …
Continue reading “Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution”
The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading …
Continue reading “The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …
Continue reading “Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ➃ Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt ➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts ➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State ➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya ➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region ➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and …
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Impact on Issues ➙ ➀ / ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government. For previous and …
Continue reading “Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)➘ ? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➙ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region ➘ ➃ U.S. influence in the region➘ Middle East American order (Other issues stable as regard to this signal only – a full assessment would need to consider events in Lebanon and Yemen) On 5 November 2017, the ongoing negotiations between the Iraqi forces …
Continue reading “Signal: Still no Agreement – Iraqis Forces and Peshmergas”
Bilingual text EN-FR – Invitation to book launch, then presentation of Dr Jean-Michel Valantin, Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée. English invitation: Join us on 7 Novembre, 19h15 for Dr Jean-Michel Valantin Géopolitique d’une Planète Déréglée book launch, at Sciences Po, 13 rue de l’Université, Amphi Erignac, with a debate on “current geopolitics and the Anthropocene” (see more detail …
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Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Will the U.S. be able to stem this declining tide in terms of AI? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of AI be perceived? what would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? (Critical uncertainties) ➚➚ China influence ➚ …
Continue reading “Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025”
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia – and now possibly Iran – on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat ➚➚➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➚➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria ➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle East Tension➚ Iran influence➚➚ ➃ Russia influence➘ Threat to Israel➚➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial – likely leading to ➘➘ U.S. influence ➚➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions ➘ Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria On 1 November 2017, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the President of Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani met in Teheran.For previous and other signals check the Horizon Scanning BoardFriendly statements followed. Iran …
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Whatever way one wants to see it, despite defeats in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the Philippines, the Islamic State has not disappeared and will most probably remain a feature of our world for some times. The regular terrorist attacks taking place throughout the world are there to remind us that to win over ideas – …
