(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Have you ever heard about Cassandra’s brother, who shared his sister’s gift of prophecy but not her curse? Could this legend, as other ancient myths, facts and histories, give us some clues to make our delivery and communication of strategic foresight and early warning products more efficient? Could it tell us …
Continue reading “From Seer to King – Success with Strategic Foresight and Warning”
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) When delivering warnings, are we doomed to never be believed, sharing the same fate as Cassandra, the tragic character of Greek mythology? Or, on the contrary, can we hope to become as successful as the Pythia, the oracle priestess of Apollo at Delphi? Her gift of prophecy becoming a curse, Cassandra …
Continue reading “From Cassandra’s Curse to the Pythia’s Success”
A warning does not exist if it is not delivered. This is a key lesson highlighted by the famous expert in warning Cynthia Grabo, who worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980 (Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, Editor’s Preface). Similarly, a foresight product such as scenarios, for example, …
Continue reading “Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning”
An issue, in terms of warning and by extension SF&W, is “a situation, an objective, an opportunity, a danger, a threat or a risk, which is specific and defined.” (Grabo, 2004) For example, SF&W issues can be interstate and civil wars, fragile states, instability, energy security, oil, economic crisis, global water security, epidemics and pandemics such …
Continue reading “What is an Issue in terms of Strategic Foresight & Warning and Horizon Scanning?”
Strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation is a step by step process to anticipate the future in an actionable way. The graphic ideal type process displayed below is the result of more than a decade of work with and about systems of anticipation, from early warning systems to prevent conflicts for aid agencies to …
Continue reading “Visualising the Steps to Foresee the Future and Get Ready for It”
[Fully rewritten version v3] To exist, risk and foresight products as well as warnings must be delivered to those who must act upon them, the customers, clients or users. These anticipation analyses must also be actionable, which means that they need to include the right information necessary to see action taken. Yet, if you deliver …
Continue reading “Revisiting Timeliness for Strategic Foresight and Warning and Risk Management”
Russia 2045 – Strategic Social Movement Russia 2045 is an interesting Russian initiative for the future. It wants to be more than that, a movement for a new paradigm, indeed a new ideology according to its Manifesto, organised around the creation of “working cybernetic organisms,” with Russia as leader. It is close to the Singularity idea, and, indeed, Ray …
