In April 2025, the Trump administration raised custom tariffs on most Chinese goods up to 145%. The Chinese reaction was to raise its own tariffs up to 125% (Jennifer Clark, “What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?”, BBC, 23 April, 2025). In this context, one must keep in mind that, since December 1978 …
Continue reading “Trump Geopolitics (2) – The US vs China Geoeconomic War”
(U.S. Army’s MQ-1C Warrior UAV Photo Courtesy of U.S. Army – Public Domain) In December 2024, the Chinese government ordered one million kamikaze drones for the People’s liberation Army (Dylan Malyasov, “China places massive order for kamikaze drones”, The Defence Blog, 22 December 2024). During the same period, OpenAI, the U.S. giant of generative AI …
Continue reading “AI at War (4): The US-China Drone and Robot Race”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Identifying and using weak signals is an important part of the processes of strategic foresight and early warning. It is at the heart of the activity known as scanning or horizon scanning. Weak signals can point towards the possible apparition of a new theme for a topic of concern. …
Continue reading “How to use AI for Weak Signals – Trump, the International Revolutionary?”
Is China launching a strategic offensive against the dominance of the U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) and tech sector? And if this is the case, what is the meaning of this Chinese offensive? The question of a Chinese offensive on the U.S. tech and AI sector has been increasingly relevant over the last months (e.g. Foresight …
Continue reading “DeepSeek vs Stargate – China’s Offensive on U.S. AI Dominance?”
(Donald Trump with Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr, and Mike JohnsonCredit photo: from Office of Speaker Mike Johnson – Public Domain ) President-elect Donald Trump declared that Canada should become the “51st state” of the United States of America. He also repeats quite often that the U.S. should “buy Greenland” (Alexandra Sharp, “The 51st …
Continue reading “Trump Geopolitics – 1: Trump as the AI Power President”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-CarliPhotos credits : Didier Descouens & Egor Kamelev) The uranium requirements created by the planned American nuclear renaissance are immense and unprecedented (see Helene Lavoix, “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance: Meeting Unprecedented Requirements (1)“, The Red Team Analysis Society, 27 November 2024). Yet, the production of uranium in the …
Continue reading “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance – 2: Towards a global geopolitical race”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The U.S. has planned for a Nuclear Renaissance. It aims to reach 300 GWe capacity by 2050 for nuclear energy and envisions two scenarios to reach this goal (U.S. Department of Energy -DOE, Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear, 30 September 2024). Developing the future American fleet of reactors implies …
Continue reading “Uranium for the U.S. Nuclear Renaissance – 1: Meeting Unprecedented Requirements”
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) On 30 September 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published the latest edition of the Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear. Its aim is to contribute to accelerate advanced nuclear reactors’ commercial deployment in support of U.S. objectives in terms of nuclear energy, necessary notably to achieve its …
(Art direction and design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Given the escalating geopolitical tensions at the beginning of 2024, it is crucial to understand the evolution of the international influence of players on the world stage and its trends. In this article, we offer a vision of this international influence and how it changed over time, since the …
Continue reading “Which Country has the most Influence in the World?”
(Screenshot from the video FOE 2035-2050 Army Futures Command) Once valid scenarios for the future are built, we still need to deliver them to policy-makers and decision-makers. We need to understand the various challenges implied by the communication of strategic foresight products, and among them all the biases and traps that may hinder this communication, …
Continue reading “Using Videos for Scenarios: The Future Operational Environment 2035-2050”
