Impact on Issues No assessment yet How will Western NGOs be able to anticipate and face Russia’s humanitarian aid to Syria? Will Russian aid have an impact on their activities… and funding? Interesting question for the whole sector…
Category Archives: Geopolitics by Geographical Regions
Signal: Turkey and Iran discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq Should we expect further rapprochement between Turkey and Iran, which could, in turn, further tense the Gulf crisis as well as the situation in Syria (and obviously Iraq)?Turkish, Iranian presidents discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum: Erdogan’s officeTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke by phone regarding a Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum and voiced concern that it will cause regional chaos, Erdogan’s office said on Sunday.
Signal: U.S. air strikes kill IS fighters in Libya
Impact on Issues ➘➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War /Libya The war waged by the Islamic State goes on… and the situation in Libya is not yet pacified. Both the war in Libya and the activity of the Islamic State (and al-Qaeda) must continue being monitored. U.S. air strikes kill 17 Islamic State …
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Signal: The Islamic State in the Philippines
Impact on Issues ➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War / South East Asia The Filipino army is still fighting the Islamic State in Marawi. The threat coming from the Islamic State in South East Asia (SEA) must neither be forgotten nor underestimated. Furthermore, the Islamic State may also develop the capacity to use South …
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Signal: High Turnout for the Iraqi Kurds Referendum
Impact on Issues ➙➚ ➁/➄ Iraq Kurds Referendum The Iraqi Kurds would need allies if they want to survive. However correct and right their right to self-determination, being landlocked, surrounded by countries opposing this right is hardly conducive to state-building.The question surrounding the Kurdish referendum is all the more crucial considering that the Islamic State remains a threat and thus that Iraq is still at war.Turnout high as Iraqi Kurds defy threats to hold independence voteERBIL/SULAIMANIYA, Iraq (Reuters) – Kurds voted in large numbers in an independence referendum in northern Iraq on Monday, ignoring pressure from Baghdad, threats from Turkey and Iran, and international warnings that the vote may ignite yet more regional conflict. The vote organized by Kurdish authorities …
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Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council
The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each …
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Climate Change: the Long Planetary Bombing
Executive summary The current and coming impacts of climate change are becoming equivalent to those of a long bombing. This can be seen with the damages wrought in Texas, Louisiana and Florida by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In a few days, the total costs of these disasters has amounted to at least 290 billion USD, …
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Strategic Digital China – The Great Cyber Shield
In this article, we shall focus on the Chinese cyber security national system, formally known as the “Golden Shield Project” and frequently dubbed “the Great Firewall” (“The Great Firewall of China: Background”, Torfox, a Stanford Project, June 1, 2011). Previously, we saw how China promotes a mammoth digital development and is becoming, as a result, …
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Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory?
In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took …
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Towards Renewed War in Syria? The Kurds and Turkey
President Erdogan “Countries We Consider Our Friends See No Problem in Cooperating with Terrorist Organizations”, Eid al-Fitr celebration, AK Party’s Istanbul branch, 25 June 2017 – Presidency of the Republic of Turkey.“The entire world should know that we will never allow the establishment of a terror state across our borders in northern Syria. … We will continue to crush the head of the serpents in their nests. Here is my message to those who want to block the steps we will take for the survival of our state and nation…” President Erdogan (Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, “Countries We Consider Our Friends See No Problem in Cooperating with Terrorist Organizations“, Eid al-Fitr celebration, AK Party’s Istanbul branch , 25 June …
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