Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Some analysts seem to hail the move towards the normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations as an evidence that the U.S. is truly ending the Cold …
Category Archives: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues
Oil Flood (1)? The Kingdom is Back
Since July 2014, oil prices have been falling, while OPEC members have decided to maintain their current levels of production (OPEC, 166th meeting concludes). It appears that the Saudi Kingdom plays an essential part in this operation. Numerous articles and commentaries are focused on the economic and financial consequences of this situation, and try to anticipate how national and global economies are going to react. The problem with this kind of questions is that they miss the fact that oil is not only a commodity and the support of gigantic financial activities (William Engdahl, A Century of war, Anglo-american oil politics and the new world order, 2004). Before all, oil is an extremely powerful tool of political power (Michael Levi, “Why …
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 182 – The U.S. under Threats?
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Besides developments in the Islamic State War, and on the broader Jihadi front, continuing tensions between NATO and Russia, and related uncertainties for the situation in Ukraine, what stands out this week is, potentially, how much the U.S. and their supremacy are under threats and how they could fight back, or not. Interestingly, this perception of multiple threats to the U.S. only emerges if one considers various sections together, namely, world (of course), technology and armaments, energy and economy. We thus have together the decline of oil prices …
Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 182 – The U.S. under Threats?”
The Islamic State Psyops – A Framework
Since August 19 2014 and the broadcast of American James Foley murder at the hands of the Islamic State (Ackerman, 20 August 2014, The Guardian), Western media regularly feature grim videos where the Islamic State beheads individuals belonging to the groups it perceives as enemies and opposing its Caliphate. The gruesome, ghastly and shocking character of the videos and of …
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 181 – The West’s “Ukraine Problem”
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – An excellent article by Prof Anatol Lieven for BBC News on “How can the West solve its Ukraine problem?” addresses – at long last – most problems related to the Ukrainian crisis in a masterful, objective and constructive way, not shying away from the very difficult situation into which Ukraine now is. The fact it is published by BBC News is positive and might signal that we could enter a healthier period regarding the way the crisis in Ukraine is handled. In turn it might give more hope to see the crisis …
Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 181 – The West’s “Ukraine Problem””
War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play – Nationalist Forces (2)
The civil war in Libya recently became more complex and dangerous, as the jihadist group Majlis Shura Shabab al-Islam (the Islamic Youth Shura Council) announced that the Eastern Libyan city of Derna is now part of the Islamic State (Zelin, October 10, 2014). An Islamic State (IS) foothold in Eastern Libya could pose concerns for international governments already combatting IS in Syria and Iraq. With its border less than 200 miles from Derna, Egypt is particularly concerned as they are already fighting Islamists, notably in the Sinai. Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand all the actors on the Libyan battlefield, as we are doing here, if one wants to make sense of the civil war and its international ramifications. The …
Continue reading “War in Libya and its Futures: State of Play – Nationalist Forces (2)”
The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 180 – Questioning the Content of Military Training for Allies
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for each section. World (all matters related to war, international and national security) – Our featured article, this week, is Yinon Weiss “What if the Military Has Been Focusing on the Wrong Thing the Whole …
Portal to the Islamic State War
The Islamic State is one of the contemporary most serious and novel threats to the transitioning (or not) current world order. The fact that war is part and parcel of the Islamic State and its Caliphate or Khilafah (خلافة) very existence is only one of the many challenges and novelties that most of the rest of the world …
“Interstellar” – Strategic Warning and Response Alternatives for the Resource Crisis
“Interstellar”, the 2014 global blockbuster movie by Christopher Nolan is a feat of intellectual and strategic thinking. The movie follows the adventures of three astronauts whose mission is to find a viable planet for humankind, while people on Earth are struggling with the rapid decay of the biosphere and the increasingly dangerous effects of climate change. In fact, this movie addresses the political and existential issues of what is to become of humanity once the climate change crisis, the biodiversity crisis and the energy and minerals crises will have been firmly and clearly interlocked for two dozens years from now. This nexus of “socio-bio-vital crises” is very smartly used by Christopher Nolan to elaborate a vehicle for a new kind of …
Conflict in Ukraine – The Far-Right (3): Parties and Battalions
After we focused, in our series on the far-right in Ukraine, first on ultra-nationalism then on the new People’s Front ultra-nationalist outlook and related potential impacts, notably regarding war in Eastern Ukraine, this last post will deal with the remaining far-right groups.We shall first look at the way the war in Eastern Ukraine further legitimized not only far-right and nationalist groups but also their paramilitary branches. Then, after presenting a map of the ultra-nationalist and far-right actors on the Ukrainian scene, we shall introduce more in detail those right-wing groups that are both represented in parliament and certified by their participation in the war, before to turn to those that have no parliamentary representation but nevertheless remain legitimized by the war.Legitimizing paramilitary right-wing groupsThe Ministry of Interior …
Continue reading “Conflict in Ukraine – The Far-Right (3): Parties and Battalions”
