The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.
Category Archives: Future Wars
Signals: Jerusalem – The U.S. Defeated at the U.N., China Seeks Advantage?
Impacts and Consequences Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the global U.S. influence and power lowered; Increased likelihood to see a global perception of the regional (Middle East) U.S. influence and power lowered. Should China step in successfully as peace broker between Israelis and Palestinians Increased likelihood to see global perception of a …
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Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report
Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …
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When Artificial Intelligence will Power Geopolitics – Presenting AI
“Killer Robots” worry the international community. From 13 to 17 November 2017, the Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), also familiarly designed as “killer robots” met for the first time in Geneva (UN Office at Geneva). LAWS are, broadly speaking, autonomous systems (robots) animated by artificial intelligence, which can kill without …
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The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea
This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding …
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Signal: Spanish Stabilising Reassertion of Rule over Catalonia
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? ➂ Perceptions, reactions and interactions outside Barcelona, notably in independence towns and areas, as well as outside major “central regional” political and civil servant circles (critical uncertainty). ➘➘➘ ➁ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➘➘➘ ➁ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➘➙ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations …
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Signals: Talks between Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga; President Barzani Steps Down; Iran…
Impact on Issues ➚ ? ➃ Short term – Willingness of Iraq to capitalize further on their military victory against the Kurds, notably capturing Kurdish oilfields (uncertainty)? Medium to longer term – capacity of Iraq to govern legitimately over its multi-sectarian multi-ethnic population (critical uncertainty) ➚ ➃ /➄ Iraq strength and international support ➘➘➘ ➂ Legitimacy of Iraqi Kurdish political authorities and parties➘➘➘ Prospects for Iraqi Kurds’ independence and even autonomy ➚➚ ➃ Iran’s influence in Iraq and in the region➘ ➙ Saudi Arabia’s influence➘ ? Saudi Arabia – Iran tensions ➚ ? ➃ Russia’s influence➘➘ ➃ U.S. influence ➘ ➄ Syrian Kurds prospects ➚ ➃ Russia’s influence trial in Syria➘➚? ➃ Middle East Tension As the internationally abandoned Iraqis Kurds appear to have, at least temporarily, not only lost their bid for …
Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over
Impact on Issues ? ➂ towards ➃ The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➚➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Update 15:45 – …
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Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying …
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Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…
Impact on Issues ➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) ➚ ➁ NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea ➚ ➁ World War ➘ Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy – ➘ Independent European Member …
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