Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios
Impact on Issues ? ➂ towards ➃ The way Spain will practically implement the take over of Catalan administrations and institutions is critical (critical uncertainty) ➚➚➚ ➂ Large peaceful civil resistance and disobedience across Catalonia for Independence ➚➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Update 15:45 – …
Continue reading “Signals: Catalonia Prepares for Spain Take Over”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Civil Unrest in Catalonia against Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally On 16 October 2017 morning, Carlos Puigdemont answered Madrid’s ultimatum (see previous signal) through a letter (as displayed below). The letter shows a resolve to remain on the positions expressed on 10 October, while trying …
Continue reading “Signals: Catalonia Answers Spain, Spain Jails two Catalan Leaders…”
Impact on Issues ➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda) ➚ ➁ NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea ➚ ➁ World War ➘ Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy – ➘ Independent European Member …
Continue reading “Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…”
Impact on Issues ➚ ➀ ➁ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – ➘ U.S. influence – ➘ USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, even though it is still far behind the U.S. and Russia. It …
Continue reading “Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports”
Impact on Issues ➘➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. It is however unlikely events will unfold that simply and peacefully, considering Spain position on 10 October evening. A lull or …
Impact on Issues ➘ + ➙ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain (see further outlined scenarios below) – ➚ ➁ Secessions and deep changes of nations within the EU… and globally Warning (Opportunity) – Opportunity to plan ahead for the EU and its member states, as well as worldwide? Independence is meant to be declared by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont on 10 …
Continue reading “Signal: Political Dealings and Scenarios in Spain vs Catalonia”
Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising. Note two main points in terms of …
Continue reading “Signals – Spain and Catalonia: Constitutional Court Order, Media Polarization…”
Impact on Issues ➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King. This is a worrying signal that is highly …
Continue reading “Signal: Spanish King statement on Catalonia referendum”
The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each …
Continue reading “Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council”
Each week our scan collects weak – and less weak – signals… Read the 23 April scan → World + Tech & Weapons – This week’s featured article is Nichols “Militia’s War Robots Raise Questions About Future Of Warfare” for Forbes. Nichols points out there that a 23 March 2015 video posted by Muqtada al-Sadr Shi’a Peace Brigades (Saraya Al Salam) (see brief on the group by Jihad Intel) advertises some (still small) futurist warfare capabilities, demonstrating the use of two armed robots or “weaponized unmanned ground vehicles (UVGs)”. Nichols then interestingly uses this example to underline that the common American focus on technology and future warfare needs to be considered also in the light of their use by non-state actors. He then imagines how the future of …
Continue reading “The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 200 – The Future is Now: Robots Warfare In Iraq”
