(Last updated 28 Feb 22 20:50 CET: added access to UN General Assembly Live) At 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special military operation”. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack. What is happening on the ground? How are events unfolding? How is the …
Category Archives: War
Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …
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Russia vs the U.S. – The OSCE Istanbul Document
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Within the context of the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., Russia, on 1st February 2022, through its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov invokes an article of a 1999 agreement (Reuters, 1 February 2022). What is is this agreement and which article does Lavrov use? The 1999 agreement is actually the …
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“Dune” – Adaptation to Climate Change as Power Strategy
(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: John Getchel) A movie and a thought experiment in strategic foresight The 2021 “Dune” movie by Denis Villeneuve is a deep reflexion about the future of political and strategic power (Denis Villeneuve, Dune, 2021). This movie explores the deep connections between the source and exercise of strategic power and the …
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Towards a US-China War ? (1) The New Cold War and China’s Belt and Road Initiative Go to the (Warming) Arctic
This article explores the way the warming of the Arctic transforms this region into the new frontier of a new driver of the confrontation between the US and China… Read More
Smart Agriculture, International Power and National Interest
Smart farming, the combination of agriculture, artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet of things (IoT), will help tackle the various challenges of food security, and usher the happenstance of a new world. It will also change what international food security means. We present here some of the features of the new “international smart food security”. …
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The U.S. Navy vs Climate and Ocean Change Insecurity (1)
The U.S. Navy is under higher and growing pressure from climate and ocean change. This situation is emphasized in The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen B. Gingerich et al., February 2018, full pdf report), funded among others by the Department …
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Signal: The Pentagon Researches Artificial Intelligence Systems for Nuclear Missile Launch Anticipation
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. on the one hand, China and in a lesser way Russia on the other. ➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚➚ Rising uncertainty regarding the emerging AI-world ➚ Possible widening of the range of response, …
Signals: China Planetary 3D Strategy, Deep Sea Resources in the South China Sea
The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.
Militarizing Artificial Intelligence – China (2)
In this article, we shall focus on the strategic meaning of the rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) by the Chinese military, at the level of command and management of warfare operations. In the first article of this series, we saw how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is working to integrate AI to numerous …
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