This update covers the evolution in Syria from July to October 2013. It focuses first on dynamics of change involving the interplay between the Syrian Islamist factions on the ground and international players – especially the declaration of an “Islamic framework” and then the creation of the Islam Army, with impact on the overall situation, and provides an updated mapping for Syrian Islamist groups. It then looks at evolutions related to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces.Syrian Sunni factions intending to install an Islamist state in Syria(For background and past state of play, see here)It is within those groups that we have been witnessing throughout September-October 2013 the most potent changes. As always, and as Lund stressed again recently, the …
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Climate Change, a Geostrategic Issue? Yes!
“Winter is coming” This is the motto of the Starks, the eminent feudal family depicted in “Game of Thrones”, the fantasy novel series, by George R.R. Martin [1]. Its members are involved in numerous and interlocking power struggles between the different Houses of a kingdom, whose ruler is weak ( and meets a sad fate). This continent is dominated by a strange climate, divided in two seasons, a summer and a winter, each potentially lasting several years. Winters can be fearfully cold and snowy, induce mass starvation for a very long time, as well as terrible conflicts, and decide, by their harshness, like war, of the destiny of nations. When “Winter is coming”, the moment has come to get prepared for times dominated by cold, despair and …
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Facing the Fog of War in Syria: Updates
As underlined when we started the series on Syria, one of the analytical challenges we face, in terms of strategic foresight and warning, is the fog of war. The, at time, rapid evolution of the situation, fits badly with any static mean to deliver analysis. We need, of course, to monitor what is happening, but also to regularly integrate this surveillance in our strategic analysis and finally to make it known to concerned audience (readers, decision-makers, policy-makers). After having outlined the methodological difficulties and presented the solution chosen, we shall focus on the updates themselves.Methodology: challenges and imperfect solutionsFirst, in terms of periodicity and content of publication (delivery in SF&W jargon), a right balance must be found between publishing too …
Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (3)
In this post we shall finish investigating the second level of analysis of the Kantian framework, i.e. how states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens should behave in their pursuit of democracy and if this leads to war or not, as could happen in the case of Syria, and finally look at the third level, humankind.
Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (2)
In the Kantian framework, different kinds of agents pursue democracy at three levels: the individuals within a nation, the states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens, and humankind. In this article, we shall look at how individuals within a nation should behave if they want to truly abide by democratic principles.
Should they rebel and when? Should they support war, and which type of war if any?
This article is the second part of a series reflecting upon Democracy, especially its link to war, in the framework of events, notably regarding Syria, Egypt and the “Arab Awakening” but also the 2010s European and American opposition movements. The first article can be read here, and the next and final one here.
Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield
Having an idea of the forces present on the battlefield in Syria is crucial to understand the state of play, to follow the course of the war, to evaluate the impact of the decisions taken by external players, and to estimate the likelihood to see one scenario (or one of its variations) happening. Here is a synthesis of the various estimates found for each warring group…
The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources
Contents Casualties, refugees and internally displaced people New type of analysis and collection The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield General Resources and Blogs Causes of conflict General Syrian War Actors NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA* General Muslim Brotherhood Sufism Pro Al-Assad Groups Salafi and Sunni Islamist Jihadi in Syria Kurds Alawites Christians Maps …
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Scenarios for Syria – 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria?
Despite the recent victory in Qusayr by the pro Al-Assad groups, and despite the strategic character of the city, this scenario seems to be unlikely, but not impossible, in a very near future. To obtain complete victory, we may assume that the regime of Bashar Al-Assad would continue and even strengthen his current strategy of …
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Scenario for Syria – 3.1: A Real Victory – an Islamic Al-Sham?
Considering the current state of play, scenario 3: A Real Victory in Syria, and its sub-scenarios are rather unlikely in the short-term. However, they are worth outlining because they bring analytical insight into dynamics and potential strategies to favour or counter one or the other possibility, according to interests, and because they could be relevant for the …
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Nationalist Salafis and Global Jihadis in Syria
Detailed state of play for the Syrian Sunni Factions between May 2013 and January 2014 (open access) with actors mappings (members only).
