Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses

Impacts and Consequences The main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain.  The outcome in terms of American regional and global influence is also uncertain. The main other impacts are Lower likelihood to see rapidly a constructive peace settling in for SyriaLower likelihood to see the creation of a Federal SyriaRising Middle East tensionRising global tensions, notably with the U.S. on the one hand, Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran on the other. (Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before …

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Season’s Greetings 2017 – 2018

2018 is likely to be overshadowed by the relationships between the U.S. on the one hand, a rising China and its strategic partnership with Russia on the other. There is no fatality towards increased tension. It seems to be, however, more likely than a wise and cooperative approach, considering notably the overall transitional setting and …

Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning – The New AI-World in the Making

This article focuses on Deep Learning, the sub-field of Artificial Intelligence that leads the current exponential development of the sector. As we seek to envision how a future AI-powered world will look and what it will mean to its actors, notably in terms of politics and geopolitics, it is indeed fundamental to first understand what is AI.
We shall first give examples of how Deep Learning is used in the real world. We distinguish two types of activities: classical AI-powered activities and totally new AI-activities, related to the very emergence of DL. In both cases we shall point out their revolutionary potential.
Then, we shall take a deeper dive in the world of Deep Learning, taking as practical example the evolution of Google’s DeepMind AI-DL program initially developed to win against human Go masters: AlphaGo, then AlphaGo Zero and finally AlphaZero. After briefly presenting where DL is located within AI, we shall focus first on Deep Neural Networks and Supervised Learning. Second we shall look at the latest evolution with Deep Reinforcement Learning and start wondering if a new AI-DL paradigm, which could revolutionise the current dogma regarding the importance of Big Data, is not emerging.

The Renminbi on the Tracks of the U.S. Dollar?

China has entered a “new era” where it should “take centre stage in the world” said President Xi Jinping during his opening speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18-24 October) (Xi Jinping: “Time for China to take centre stage”, BBC News, 18 October 2017). This is poised to have …

Artificial Intelligence on the Chinese New Silk Road

In this article, we shall study how the deployment of the B&R integrates the deployment of the sinosphere through the increasing use of AI as a tool to reinforce the efficiency of the international transport, information and communication infrastructures that actually shape the New Silk Road/B&R.

Signal: Latest NATO 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report

Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …

Challenges Looming over the Petrodollar System

This article focuses mainly on the petrodollar system, which is at the heart of the U.S. dollar supremacy, and on the challenges it meets. Meanwhile, these trials start outlining potential futures for the international currency system.

Signals: China enters the Fray in the Middle East; Israel Unprecedented Interview; Saudi Arabia…

A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability. On 16 November, three major diplomatic events centred around Saudi Arabia and Iran’s influence and involving China and Israel took place which impacted this state of play.

The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution

The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading …

Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties) ➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat ➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation ➚  ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon ➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean …

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