Is space mining the short and long-term future for energy and industry? Nowadays, this question is rooted in the rapid development of the industrial, financial, technological and legal apparatus around the idea of mining asteroids. For example, on 6 January 2015, the US President, then Barack Obama, signed the US commercial space launch competitiveness act. …
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With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …
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In 2015, on the eve of his first state visit to the UK, the Chinese President Xi Jinping praised the “visionary and strategic choice” of the British government and its will to build a “golden era” of Sino-British relationships (“Xi Jinping visit: UK-China ties will be lifted to new height”, BBC News, 20 October 2015). …
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In this article, we shall analyse the drivers behind the rise in cryptocurrencies’ value and market capitalization and start envisioning future evolutions, focusing notably on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Previously, we explained what is a cryptocurrency and highlighted the possible revolutionary impact of blockchain, the technology underlying the majority of cryptocurrencies. We, meanwhile described the …
Continue reading “Blockchain, not Bitcoin, the Next Game-Changer?”
Impacts and ConsequencesThe main critical uncertainty related to the American move is first the level of this commitment and then its consistency over time. As a result the survival of the Syrian autonomous region, the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria has also become more uncertain. The outcome in terms of American regional and global influence is also uncertain.The main other impacts areLower likelihood to see rapidly a constructive peace settling in for SyriaLower likelihood to see the creation of a Federal SyriaRising Middle East tensionRising global tensions, notably with the U.S. on the one hand, Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran on the other.(Nota: The symbolic board has been moved to the end of the analysis and before the sources/signals)Facts and analysisFor …
Continue reading “Signals: U.S. Sponsored Kurdish-led Border Army in Syria and Responses”
2018 is likely to be overshadowed by the relationships between the U.S. on the one hand, a rising China and its strategic partnership with Russia on the other. There is no fatality towards increased tension. It seems to be, however, more likely than a wise and cooperative approach, considering notably the overall transitional setting and …
This article focuses on Deep Learning, the sub-field of Artificial Intelligence that leads the current exponential development of the sector. As we seek to envision how a future AI-powered world will look and what it will mean to its actors, notably in terms of politics and geopolitics, it is indeed fundamental to first understand what is AI.
We shall first give examples of how Deep Learning is used in the real world. We distinguish two types of activities: classical AI-powered activities and totally new AI-activities, related to the very emergence of DL. In both cases we shall point out their revolutionary potential.
Then, we shall take a deeper dive in the world of Deep Learning, taking as practical example the evolution of Google’s DeepMind AI-DL program initially developed to win against human Go masters: AlphaGo, then AlphaGo Zero and finally AlphaZero. After briefly presenting where DL is located within AI, we shall focus first on Deep Neural Networks and Supervised Learning. Second we shall look at the latest evolution with Deep Reinforcement Learning and start wondering if a new AI-DL paradigm, which could revolutionise the current dogma regarding the importance of Big Data, is not emerging.
China has entered a “new era” where it should “take centre stage in the world” said President Xi Jinping during his opening speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18-24 October) (Xi Jinping: “Time for China to take centre stage”, BBC News, 18 October 2017). This is poised to have …
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In this article, we shall study how the deployment of the B&R integrates the deployment of the sinosphere through the increasing use of AI as a tool to reinforce the efficiency of the international transport, information and communication infrastructures that actually shape the New Silk Road/B&R.
Nato has released its latest 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis Report. According to General Denis Mercier, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) interviewed by Reuters, the report will be used with a SACT “companion report that maps out what NATO should do to respond to these trends in the spring” … “to inform the 2019 NATO political guidance”. …
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