The crisis in Ukraine started on 21 November 2013 with the Euromaidan protests in Kiev. Six months later, it is threatening to become a full-blown civil war with severe global impacts, unless the situation is stabilised. As for any conflict it is important to assess possible futures and impacts at all levels. Image: Mstyslav Chernov/Unframe – CC BY-SA 3.0This article starts a series on the conflict in Ukraine, which aims at providing the most possible useful analysis of the situation. As we did with Syria, the series will focus on the states of play for the actors and the situation on the ground, a necessary foundation for any proper strategic foresight and warning regarding the conflict.After outlining our analytical framework to overcome the difficulties related to propaganda, we shall define and …
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The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses
Editorial – Geopolitics also matters for businesses – Among the big changes that the “Ukraine and Crimea crisis” are bringing or catalyzing, we may be seeing the end of the hegemonic belief that economics, and “business” only matter. Now that the E.U., its European members and the U.S. could be moving towards sanctions against Russia …
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Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyze Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)
In this day and age of speed, not to say haste, unequally shared resources and wish to relatively easily obtain answers to complex questions, we are faced in strategic foresight and warning analysis (or political risk analysis) with a very serious challenge. We must choose a methodology that: allows for a “good enough” analysis (Fein, 1994), …
Somali Piracy: a Model for Tomorrow’s Life in the Anthropocene?
Pirates, scientists and climate change “It was like the wild west out there”. This comment was not made by a soldier after fighting in the streets of Bagdad, or by a police officer coming back from a difficult raid in a dangerous favela in Rio. No, it was made by Peter deMenocal, a marine geologist of …
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Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (1)
Increasingly, the world seems to be fertile in war, upheavals and violent events, surrounded by heated controversies and very often by an absence of neutrality in the media. The international community is divided. As a result, informed and balanced judgements are difficult to achieve. Taking political decisions is thus even harsher than usual, bringing to …
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Big Brother in France? Discussion on BBC World Service
The BBC World Service – World Have Your Say invites three experts, including from Red (team) Analysis, to discuss the alleged interception of phone and data by France’s foreign intelligence service, in a way similar to the US Prism programme.
The Syrian War – Bibliography and Sources
Contents Casualties, refugees and internally displaced people New type of analysis and collection The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield General Resources and Blogs Causes of conflict General Syrian War Actors NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA* General Muslim Brotherhood Sufism Pro Al-Assad Groups Salafi and Sunni Islamist Jihadi in Syria Kurds Alawites Christians Maps …
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Potential Futures for Syria in the Fog of War
This post opens a series on the civil war in Syria, a challenging problem for strategic foresight and warning because, besides the humanitarian disaster, the risks to regional and global peace and stability continuously increase, because the conflict is redrawing the strategic outlook of the region while participating into the global paradigm shift, and, finally, because the fog of war makes our anticipatory task more difficult and complex.
A Road to Hell? Climate Change and Public Deficit
Climate change is not only a far away danger. Its effects have also most probably already started impacting us, as the rising number of natural catastrophes and related overall losses worldwide show. What are the consequences on states and governments? Should we continue reducing public expenditures in those conditions?
Puzzle: Strange Parallels in Global Trends 2030
Global Trends 2030 compares our current transition period with 1815, 1919, 1945 and 1989. Yet we have not known recently any global systemic war. Thus why choose such a comparison? What could explain such a puzzling choice and what could we learn from it, for our understanding of the world and its potential future(s)?
