Should Madrid be conciliant, the way Catalonia offered to operationalise the independence it declared could be stabilising. It is however unlikely events will unfold that simply and peacefully, considering Spain position on 10 October evening.

A lull or rather repeat of the 10 October and 11 October morning events was created by Spanish President of Government Rajoy following the extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers on Catalonia Independence held on 11 Oct 2017. Mr Rajoy asked Catalonia to end uncertainty and make clear if Catalonia had or not declared independence. He stressed the Spanish government’s wish for a return to legality and normality, however also wielding the threat of Spanish Constitution art. 155 (the art. by which Spain can take over the governance of Catalonia and thus suspend Catalonia autonomy).

As a result, although it seemed clear from the 10 October elements (see detail below) that Catalonia had declared independence,  uncertainty was reintroduced…. until the next declaration by Catalonia.

We may surmise that Madrid understood very clearly Catalonia’s position, or they would not have convened the extraordinary meeting. However, considering the possible dire consequences, they decided to surf on the general confusion spread by the media to give Catalonia what they could see as a second chance to give up independence.

The likelihood to see Catalonia standing up to its prior declaration seems to be higher than the probability to see it bow. However, Catalonia’s leaders are also subjected to an enormous pressure from all actors. This is why scenarios are the best means to navigate political and geopolitical uncertainties, because they allow to plan for the whole range of possibilities and not to become prey to an impossible “game of prediction”.

10 October 2017 signals

Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont indeed declared Independence on 10 October 2017 at the end of his speech to the Catalonia Parliament, Catalonia becoming a republic:

President @KRLS: "Today I assume the mandate for Catalonia to become an independent State in the form of a republic"

— Catalan Government (@catalangov) October 10, 2017

The declaration of independence is confirmed by the signature of the Declaration of the Representatives of Catalonia that followed according to which:

“Catalonia restores today its full sovereignty…

We call on all states and international organizations to recognize the Catalan republic as an independent and sovereign state. We call on the Catalan government to take all necessary measures to make possible and fully effective this declaration of independence and the measures contained in the transition law that founds the republic.”

Catalan leader signs document declaring independence from Spain

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document declaring Catalonia’s independence from Spain, but it was unclear if the document would have any legal value.

There, notably, the international part of state legitimacy is sought, which according to existing declarations by international governments Catalonia is, right now, not likely to obtain easily.

After the initial declaration, President Puigdemont also called to suspend the effects of the declaration to open a period of dialogue:

President @KRLS: "We propose the suspension of the effects of the declaration of independence for a few weeks, to open a period of dialogue"

— Catalan Government (@catalangov) October 10, 2017

This is nothing else than common sense and governance. Indeed, only a bad ruler – and ignorant individuals – could believe that a proper independence could practically become operational in the blink of an instant, without working out constructively and peacefully (ideally) how separation could take place, not only at all levels of state administration but also in terms of infrastructures for example. This shows thus not indecisiveness but practicality and resolve, as well as a will to implement independence as well and as peacefully as possible.

Madrid, however, is unlikely to accept the independence and its peaceful implementation through negotiations as indicated by Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria 10 October evening speech (Official Transcript of Vice President Soraya Saenz de Santamaria Speech – 10 October 2017). Then, she notably announced that the President of the Government had convened an extraordinary Council of Ministers on 11 October at 9:00am to deal with the situation in Catalonia.

The decision of Madrid at the issue of the Council should have determined how events would unfold next, towards further escalation or stabilisation, had a second round of declarations not been decided by President of Government Rajoy.

El Presidente del Gobierno @MarianoRajoy ha convocado un #CMin extraordinario mañana a las 9h para tratar lo sucedido hoy en Cataluña

— Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (@sorayasds) October 10, 2017

The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising.

Note two main points in terms of perception and handling of the situation.

The perception that actors may have of an appeasement following the decision by the Spanish Constitutional Court not to authorise the Catalan parliament to hold its Monday session, which would, in turn stop them to declare Independence runs… completely contrary to the highly likely political dynamics that are currently unfolding. To declare independence against the will of a central power shows a resolve, which has been growing out of escalation, to finally get out of that central political authorities’ power. As a result a court order by that very central political authorities has no appeasing power, on the contrary. Furthermore, by denying existing rights here autonomy, it is escalating.  Other factors can play that would delay declaration of independence or lower the tension, and undoubtedly many actors are trying to obtain this result. But the Spanish Constitutional Court order itself is an escalating factor not a stabilising one

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Businesses and Geopolitics (1): Caught up in the Whirlwinds?

Second, it would seem that many businesses and the corporate sector in general has again been caught unaware by an issue that has been long-standing. They have again failed to anticipate and prepare for all possible scenarios. Surprisingly, it does not seem that they are able to learn from very recent lessons over the last few years. Now as they enter into the realm of likely overreaction, because they have no proper perspective on what is happening, their odds to take wrong decisions is heightened, while they may also easily become pawns into the hands of other stakeholders.

➚ Escalating

Catalonia media reflects polarised Spanish society

The front page of Barcelona’s La Vanguardia newspaper on 4 October was dominated by the ongoing Catalan crisis. An aerial photograph showed tens of thousands of people demonstrating in the city centre the previous day, when a region-wide strike had been staged in protest at attempts by Spanish security forces to stop people voting in Sunday’s independence referendum.

➚➚ Strongly escalating

Spain court bars independence move by MPs

Spain’s Constitutional Court has suspended next Monday’s session of the Catalan parliament, in a bid to pre-empt a possible push for independence. The court said such a move would be “a breach of the constitution”. Earlier Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy warned Catalonia’s regional government against declaring independence after a disputed vote last Sunday.

➚ Escalating
Reuters: Spain to make it easier for firms to move base from Catalonia as business alarm deepens

➚➚ Escalating

Catalonia’s police chief faces sedition charge for ‘allegedly failing to follow orders’ ahead of referendum

To be found guilty of sedition, the accused must be proven to have “risen up publicly and in tumult to prevent, by force or unlawful means, the application of the law [or] by impeding any state official in the exercise of their duties”.

The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King.

This is a worrying signal that is highly likely to facilitate independence as the nation further splits. Meanwhile, the Catalans are likely to increasingly tend to perceive the Spanish political  authorities as illegitimate for their community. They could even start perceiving these central authorities as wishing them harm.

As a result, escalation is eased.

Catalan vote illegal – Spanish king

Spain’s King Felipe VI has condemned organisers of Catalonia’s independence referendum for having put themselves “outside the law”. In a TV address to the nation, he said the situation in Spain was “extremely serious”, and called for unity. Thousands of people in Catalonia have been protesting over Spanish police violence during Sunday’s vote, during which nearly 900 people were hurt.