Signals: Russia Unveils Policy on Iraq Kurds Independence, Iraqis and Kurds discuss…

Impact on Issues

➘ ➁➀ /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➙ ➄ Syria  – ➘ ➀ Russia Conundrum
➚ Russia Influence – ➘ ➃ Middle East Tension – ➘ U.S. influence

Note 13 Oct: Latest signal 16 Oct 2017 as situation has considerably evolved since 11 Oct, showing the essential fluid character of the dynamics ate work.

A flurry of diplomatic moves, visits and consultations is taking place around the Iraqi Kurdistan Independence issue (6 to 8 October).

Russia, which actions we identified previously as a major unknown to assess how the dynamics would probably evolve around Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence, has now lifted this uncertainty, as publicised on 7 October 2017 through an interview by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov with Sputnik (see signal below).

According to the interview and the way it is worded, Russia both recognises the referendum and its result, reasserts its commitment to the Iraqi Kurds, but without alienating Baghdad. Russia’s commitment to stabilisation in the region is therefore reasserted, while Russia also reassured the Kurds that they would not be once more betrayed and abandoned. The stake Russia has in Iraqi Kurdistan, notably around oil, as Rosneft and the Kurdistan Regional government (KRG) are about to sign an agreement for the construction project of Kurdistan Region’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure, has further given Russia supplementary weight and stake in developments around the Iraqi Kurdistan independence.

Most probably relatedly and following this strong signal sent by Russia – as well as highly certain behind-the-scene diplomatic work – Kurdish Prime Minister Barzani of the KRG met successively with two of Iraq’s three vice-presidents on 7 October and Iraqi parliament speaker Salim al-Jabouri in Erbil on 8 October. Although none had any official mandate, as recalled by Baghdad on 8 October, these shows that negotiations are ongoing, and part of “consultations” as nonetheless acknowledged by Baghdad.

The current Kurdish position is that they are “ready for dialogue with Baghdad ‘without preconditions from any side in a defined time frame.'” (Barzani). They also point out that neighbours – i.e. Turkey and Iran – should not be dragged into the issue as this only complexifies the problem.

Baghdad for its part, reasserting it did not want to trigger a new war, wants that “any dialogue between the two sides should be under ‘the framework of the [Iraqi] constitution” that stipulates protecting the unity and territorial integrity of Iraq.'”

Original solutions may be created, that would respect all parties’ aims, for example modelled upon the British Commonwealth, or similar. It is highly likely that Russia will weigh in to see a peaceful and constructive solution being found.

Two major uncertainties are now likely to play out. First, Turkey, could insist in seeing further Kurdish independence – whatever its shape – as an existential threat. The danger is here mitigated by a history of good relations between Turkey and the Iraqi KRG (which is different from the history of relations with the Syrian Kurds),  by Russia and Turkey relations as well as by the latest spat and tension between Turkey and the U.S.. Second, an always possible erratic American moves, as they see their influence in the region withering away, could stoke tension and derail a still fragile improvement of the situation.

Main Signal

Russia Reveals Plans for Interaction With Iraqi Kurdistan After Referendum

The Russian Foreign Ministry has commented on its plans for developing relations with Iraqi Kurdistan following an independence referendum. MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia will continue economic interaction with Iraqi Kurdistan in coordination with authorities in Baghdad, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told Sputnik on Saturday.

Other Signals

Rosneft Develops Projects in Iraqi Kurdistan

Successful implementation of the project under discussion will enable Rosneft to play a leading role in the building and expanding Kurdistan Region’s gas transport infrastructure and create synergy with existing projects for development of the oil and gas fields of the 5 blocks awarded to the Company in the region.

Iraq won’t be first party to trigger a war over Kurdistan referendum, NSA

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The Iraqi government will not initiate an armed confrontation with the Kurdish government over the disputed independence referendum that was held on September 25 with an overwhelming verdict for leaving Iraq, Iraq’s National Security Advisor said. Falah…

Baghdad not committed to talks between Barzani and Iraqi VPs, spokesperson

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The Iraqi government has said that it is not necessarily committed to the outcome of ongoing talks between the Kurdish leadership and two of the Iraqi vice presidents that called to cancel the punitive measures taken against Erbil and for talks between the two sides…

Signal: State visit of Saudi King in Russia

Impact on Issues

➚ U.S. Decline – ➚ Russian Influence – ➘ ➃ Middle East Regional Tension – ➚➚ ➂  Global tension

Among many other impacts, we shall notably stress here that this visit shows the skill of Russian diplomacy and the pertinence of Russian strategy as Russia seems to be highly likely to succeed in  maintaining and developing good relationships with two current ‘competing’ – not to say antagonist – powers: Iran and Saudi Arabia. As a result it is twice a potentially stabilizing influence for the region.

Meanwhile, and relatedly, this State visit also indicates the global relative decline of U.S. influence. As a result, the U.S. is likely to react, which could be a general factor of polarization and escalation worldwide.

Signal

Fresh Start: Saudi Arabia Turns to Russia Seeking to Diversify Foreign Relations

Riyadh has started diversifying its foreign relations due to the US’ further rapprochement with Tel Aviv, Russian political scientist Vyacheslav Smirnov told Radio Sputnik. According to the expert, the first ever visit of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud to Moscow is likely to strengthen Russo-Saudi ties.

Featured Image: With the King of Saudi Arabia Salman Ben Abdul Aziz Al Saud. From album to material Russian-Saudi talks October 5, 2017 Moscow, The Kremlin

Signals – Spain and Catalonia: Constitutional Court Order, Media Polarization…

Impact on Issues

➚➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain

The situation continues to escalate in terms of political dynamics between Catalonia and Spain. The signals are so numerous that rather than presenting them one at a time, we shall list them below, and assess them as escalating or stabilising.

Note two main points in terms of perception and handling of the situation.

The perception that actors may have of an appeasement following the decision by the Spanish Constitutional Court not to authorise the Catalan parliament to hold its Monday session, which would, in turn stop them to declare Independence runs… completely contrary to the highly likely political dynamics that are currently unfolding. To declare independence against the will of a central power shows a resolve, which has been growing out of escalation, to finally get out of that central political authorities’ power. As a result a court order by that very central political authorities has no appeasing power, on the contrary. Furthermore, by denying existing rights here autonomy, it is escalating.  Other factors can play that would delay declaration of independence or lower the tension, and undoubtedly many actors are trying to obtain this result. But the Spanish Constitutional Court order itself is an escalating factor not a stabilising one

Related

Businesses and Geopolitics (1): Caught up in the Whirlwinds?

Second, it would seem that many businesses and the corporate sector in general has again been caught unaware by an issue that has been long-standing. They have again failed to anticipate and prepare for all possible scenarios. Surprisingly, it does not seem that they are able to learn from very recent lessons over the last few years. Now as they enter into the realm of likely overreaction, because they have no proper perspective on what is happening, their odds to take wrong decisions is heightened, while they may also easily become pawns into the hands of other stakeholders.

➚ Escalating

Catalonia media reflects polarised Spanish society

The front page of Barcelona’s La Vanguardia newspaper on 4 October was dominated by the ongoing Catalan crisis. An aerial photograph showed tens of thousands of people demonstrating in the city centre the previous day, when a region-wide strike had been staged in protest at attempts by Spanish security forces to stop people voting in Sunday’s independence referendum.

➚➚ Strongly escalating

Spain court bars independence move by MPs

Spain’s Constitutional Court has suspended next Monday’s session of the Catalan parliament, in a bid to pre-empt a possible push for independence. The court said such a move would be “a breach of the constitution”. Earlier Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy warned Catalonia’s regional government against declaring independence after a disputed vote last Sunday.

➚ Escalating
Reuters: Spain to make it easier for firms to move base from Catalonia as business alarm deepens

➚➚ Escalating

Catalonia’s police chief faces sedition charge for ‘allegedly failing to follow orders’ ahead of referendum

To be found guilty of sedition, the accused must be proven to have “risen up publicly and in tumult to prevent, by force or unlawful means, the application of the law [or] by impeding any state official in the exercise of their duties”.

Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq – ➙ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum Turkey President Erdogan declaration would tend to confirm the harsh and unremitting position that Turkey, Iran and Iraq have been taking since the beginning on the issue of Iraqi Kurds independence. However, considering the Kurds will and resolve, as well as their recent history of being a major actor in the war against the Islamic State, and highly probable feeling of being thus treated unfairly, a triple blockade is highly unlikely to stabilize the situation.On the contrary,  we may expect that the Iraqi Kurds will not relent but fight to see the results of the referendum implemented and their independence achieved. War would …

Continue reading “Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence”

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Signal: Mattis on Iran nuclear deal

Impact on Issues

➘ ➁ U.S. – Iran tensions

The declaration by Defence Secretary Mattis could not only lower the tension between the two countries but also signal further appeasement. However, considering the current complexity of relations and dynamics within the American government and more largely political authorities, one should remain careful in estimating the consequences of these statements.

Defense Secretary Mattis suggests sticking with Iran nuclear deal

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Tuesday the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it were proven that Tehran was not abiding by the agreement or that it was not in the U.S. national interest to do so.

Signal: Spanish King statement on Catalonia referendum

Impact on Issues

➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain

The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King.

This is a worrying signal that is highly likely to facilitate independence as the nation further splits. Meanwhile, the Catalans are likely to increasingly tend to perceive the Spanish political  authorities as illegitimate for their community. They could even start perceiving these central authorities as wishing them harm.

As a result, escalation is eased.

Catalan vote illegal – Spanish king

Spain’s King Felipe VI has condemned organisers of Catalonia’s independence referendum for having put themselves “outside the law”. In a TV address to the nation, he said the situation in Spain was “extremely serious”, and called for unity. Thousands of people in Catalonia have been protesting over Spanish police violence during Sunday’s vote, during which nearly 900 people were hurt.

Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum – ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq The aftermath of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq continues to send shock waves, as the Kurds persist in wanting their independence while Iraq and their neighbours, home to Kurdish communities refuse this possibility.Besides impacting the Gulf crisis and obviously the war in Iraq and Syria, Russia is also faced with a severe conundrum. Russia has interests in keeping influence and good relationships with all actors. However a factor that is hardly considered but that may trump all others is the crucial need Russia has to uphold the norm of self-determination and thus to recognise the Kurdish referendum result.. because of Crimea, and …

Continue reading “Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence”

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Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals

Editor’s note: We have been monitoring “behind the scenes” the US Dollar Supremacy and the challenges it faces over the last couple of years. Indications show that it is now time to move towards strategic foresight analysis of the issue. This series results from this need and our in-depth analysis will constitute the building blocks for scenario analysis regarding the future of the US Dollar Supremacy.

On 15 September 2017, the Russian Federation President Putin ordered to end trade in US dollars at Russian ports (President of Russia, Official, “Instructions following a meeting on developing Northwest Russia’s transport infrastructure”, 15 Sept 2017, Kremlin.ru; RT, “Putin orders end to trade in US dollars at Russian seaports”, 20 Sept 2017).

Could this be a signal according to which major powers such as Russia and China try to put an end to the US Dollar supremacy? Continue reading “Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals”

Warning – New Issue – Will Western NGOs face Russian NGOs competition?

Impact on Issues

No assessment yet

How will Western NGOs be able to anticipate and face Russia’s humanitarian aid to Syria? Will Russian aid have an impact on their activities… and funding? Interesting question for the whole sector… Continue reading “Warning – New Issue – Will Western NGOs face Russian NGOs competition?”

Signal: Turkey and Iran discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq Should we expect further rapprochement between Turkey and Iran, which could, in turn, further tense the Gulf crisis as well as the situation in Syria (and obviously Iraq)?Turkish, Iranian presidents discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum: Erdogan’s officeTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke by phone regarding a Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum and voiced concern that it will cause regional chaos, Erdogan’s office said on Sunday.

The remaining part of this article is for our members and those who purchased special access plans. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. Log in and access this article.

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