Signal: Mattis on Iran nuclear deal

Impact on Issues

➘ ➁ U.S. – Iran tensions

The declaration by Defence Secretary Mattis could not only lower the tension between the two countries but also signal further appeasement. However, considering the current complexity of relations and dynamics within the American government and more largely political authorities, one should remain careful in estimating the consequences of these statements.

Defense Secretary Mattis suggests sticking with Iran nuclear deal

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Tuesday the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it were proven that Tehran was not abiding by the agreement or that it was not in the U.S. national interest to do so.

Signal: Spanish King statement on Catalonia referendum

Impact on Issues

➚ ➂ Catalonia vs Spain

The legitimacy ties that still hold Catalonia to the remaining part of Spain are being currently damaged first by the violence inflicted during the referendum, and then by the absence of denunciation of this very violence by the King.

This is a worrying signal that is highly likely to facilitate independence as the nation further splits. Meanwhile, the Catalans are likely to increasingly tend to perceive the Spanish political  authorities as illegitimate for their community. They could even start perceiving these central authorities as wishing them harm.

As a result, escalation is eased.

Catalan vote illegal – Spanish king

Spain’s King Felipe VI has condemned organisers of Catalonia’s independence referendum for having put themselves “outside the law”. In a TV address to the nation, he said the situation in Spain was “extremely serious”, and called for unity. Thousands of people in Catalonia have been protesting over Spanish police violence during Sunday’s vote, during which nearly 900 people were hurt.

Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum – ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq The aftermath of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq continues to send shock waves, as the Kurds persist in wanting their independence while Iraq and their neighbours, home to Kurdish communities refuse this possibility.Besides impacting the Gulf crisis and obviously the war in Iraq and Syria, Russia is also faced with a severe conundrum. Russia has interests in keeping influence and good relationships with all actors. However a factor that is hardly considered but that may trump all others is the crucial need Russia has to uphold the norm of self-determination and thus to recognise the Kurdish referendum result.. because of Crimea, and …

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Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals

Editor’s note: We have been monitoring “behind the scenes” the US Dollar Supremacy and the challenges it faces over the last couple of years. Indications show that it is now time to move towards strategic foresight analysis of the issue. This series results from this need and our in-depth analysis will constitute the building blocks for scenario analysis regarding the future of the US Dollar Supremacy.

On 15 September 2017, the Russian Federation President Putin ordered to end trade in US dollars at Russian ports (President of Russia, Official, “Instructions following a meeting on developing Northwest Russia’s transport infrastructure”, 15 Sept 2017, Kremlin.ru; RT, “Putin orders end to trade in US dollars at Russian seaports”, 20 Sept 2017).

Could this be a signal according to which major powers such as Russia and China try to put an end to the US Dollar supremacy? Continue reading “Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals”

Warning – New Issue – Will Western NGOs face Russian NGOs competition?

Impact on Issues

No assessment yet

How will Western NGOs be able to anticipate and face Russia’s humanitarian aid to Syria? Will Russian aid have an impact on their activities… and funding? Interesting question for the whole sector… Continue reading “Warning – New Issue – Will Western NGOs face Russian NGOs competition?”

Signal: Turkey and Iran discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq Should we expect further rapprochement between Turkey and Iran, which could, in turn, further tense the Gulf crisis as well as the situation in Syria (and obviously Iraq)?Turkish, Iranian presidents discuss Iraqi Kurdish referendum: Erdogan’s officeTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke by phone regarding a Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum and voiced concern that it will cause regional chaos, Erdogan’s office said on Sunday.

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Signal: U.S. air strikes kill IS fighters in Libya

Impact on Issues

➘➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War /Libya

The war waged by the Islamic State goes on…  and the situation in Libya is not yet pacified. Both the war in Libya and the activity of the Islamic State (and al-Qaeda) must continue being monitored.

 

U.S. air strikes kill 17 Islamic State militants in Libya: U.S. military

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Six U.S. air strikes on an Islamic State desert camp in Libya killed 17 militants and destroyed three vehicles, the U.S. military said on Sunday, the first American strikes in Libya since President Donald Trump took office in January. U.S.

Signal: The Islamic State in the Philippines

Impact on Issues

➙ ➃/➄ The Islamic State at War / South East Asia

The Filipino army is still fighting the Islamic State in Marawi. The threat coming from the Islamic State in South East Asia (SEA) must neither be forgotten nor underestimated.

Furthermore, the Islamic State may also develop the capacity to use South East Asia as new platform to re-launch or launch operations elsewhere.

 

One week to cross a street – how IS pinned down Filipino soldiers in Marawi

MARAWI CITY, Philippines (Reuters) – With a grimace, Brigadier General Melquiades Ordiales of the Philippines 1st Marine Brigade recounted the painful gains made against Islamist militants in Marawi City.

Signal: High Turnout for the Iraqi Kurds Referendum

Impact on Issues ➙➚ ➁/➄ Iraq Kurds Referendum The Iraqi Kurds would need allies if they want to survive. However correct and right their right to self-determination, being landlocked, surrounded by countries opposing this right is hardly conducive to state-building.The question surrounding the Kurdish referendum is all the more crucial considering that the Islamic State remains a threat and thus that Iraq is still at war.Turnout high as Iraqi Kurds defy threats to hold independence voteERBIL/SULAIMANIYA, Iraq (Reuters) – Kurds voted in large numbers in an independence referendum in northern Iraq on Monday, ignoring pressure from Baghdad, threats from Turkey and Iran, and international warnings that the vote may ignite yet more regional conflict. The vote organized by Kurdish authorities …

Continue reading “Signal: High Turnout for the Iraqi Kurds Referendum”

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Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each time, so far, it has been proven wrong.  But what if, this time, it were true?

This series of three articles examines three dimensions of U.S. decline as perceived – publicly – by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), part of the U.S. Office of The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Here we shall start by examining what is meant exactly by a U.S. decline and its onset. Then, in the second article, we shall focus on the sources of American decline and power, as identified by the NIC, which will also give us indicators to monitor the decline. Finally, in the third article we shall point out the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and address the inability of the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower.

Continue reading “Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council”
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