2212-2213 EVT – Restoring Growth (Panglossy)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, comforted in their vision by the BRICS’ success and renewed optimism, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. As a result, habits and the existing system, once the new national representatives are elected and the new government starts ruling, are even more entrenched, almost ossified. Meanwhile, the polarisation and rise of a new opposition that took …

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The Power of Maps

Maps are both necessary tools for analysis and crucial delivery visuals for foresight and warning products. They constitute a very powerful type of delivery form, as they change both the world and the mind. The pivotal importance of maps and of the process of mapping has notably been shown, in the case of the birth of nations and of nationalism, by two remarkable books: Imagined Communities by Benedict Anderson and Siam Mapped: A History of the Geo-Body of a Nation by Winichakul Thongchai. Building upon the findings of those master-works, as well as on my own (PhD) research, this post explains the power of maps and then outlines contemporary evolutions, examples and possibilities. Why are maps special instruments of power? …

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Water Security Maps

You will find below a selection of maps related to global water security, which are useful for both analysis and delivery of products. Maps are both necessary tools for analysis and crucial delivery visuals for our foresight and warning products. They constitute a category of delivery form, which can, furthermore, be combined with other categories to suit at best our needs. The maps under copyrights that do not allow fair free use (C.C.) are filed at the bottom of the post. National Intelligence Council (US), ODNI – 2012: Global Water Security Map Map attached to the 2012 Global Water Security, an Intelligence Community Assessment Aquastat (FAO) maps AQUASTAT is FAO’s global information system on water and agriculture, developed by the Land …

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2212 EVT – New Government, New Opposition, Last Hope (Panglossy)

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something when new elections start. Dependent upon programmes created to face efficiently past challenges, prisoners of entrenched political groupings, comforted in their vision by the BRICS’ success and renewed optimism, the major parties campaign to come back to the order ante. As a result, habits and the existing system, once the new national representatives are elected and the new government starts ruling, are even more entrenched, almost ossified. (The reader can click on each picture to see a larger …

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The Coal Sigils

The aim of the Coal Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on coal security.

We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Coal Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023.

Why a Sigils focused on coal since 2012?

According to a release by the IEA,

“As of March 2012, approximately 40% of the world’s electricity needs were provided by coal. Yes, coal is the second source of primary energy after oil.”

Furthermore, considering the progressive or rapid abandonment of nuclear energy, as in Germany or in Japan, which shut off its last reactor on 5 May 2012, coal could very well see an increase in demand, at least for a few years, until alternative energy mix are implemented.

Besides electricity, coal is also used in steel and aluminium production, in the manufacture of cement, increasingly to produce transport fuels from liquefied or gasified coal (Survey of Energy Resources, Nov 2010, p.3).

The use of coal varies according to regions, with a demand increase forecast in Asia, and, on the contrary, a diminution in the West (without considering the nuclear free policies impact).

The environmental and health impacts of coal mining, processing and usage (World Coal Association, 2005, 2012) make it a highly questionable source of energy, although many efforts are made to struggle against them.

Last but not least, data regarding proved reserves seem to be controversial, which could create surprise,* while the unequal distribution of coal exports (90% originate from six countries: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, Colombia, and the United States) create the potential for tension (IEA 2012).

All those points deserve monitoring if we are to avoid surprise and develop proper foresight in energy security.

The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens.

*Recent surveys tend to emphasise plentiful reserves. However, the November 2010 Survey of Energy Resources,  by the World Energy Council details the difficulties surrounding the gathering of data and related assessments, pp.1-3. Other estimates on potential Peak Coal can be found, among others in Energy Watch Group, Coal: resources and future production, 2007; Kavalov, B.  and S. D. Peteves, The Future of Coal, Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2007. Slides; Vernon, Chris  Coal – The Roundup, The Oil Drum Europe, 2007; Li, Minqi, Peak Coal and China, The Oil Drum, July 4, 2011. See also, Rutledge, David, “Estimating Long-Term World Coal Production with Logit and Probit Transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, Jan 2011; US National Academy of Sciences, Coal – Report in Brief, 2007.

References

Cusick, Daniel  and ClimateWire, “Asian Demand Forecasts Boom for Coal,” Scientific American, May 14, 2012.

IEA, FAQs: Coal, 2012

The Associated Press, “Japan shuts off nuclear power as thousands celebrate – Island nation is without electricity from nuclear power for first time in four decades,” May 5, 2012 – CBC News.

World Coal Association, The coal resource a comprehensive overview of coal, 2005

World Coal Association, Coal – Energy for Sustainable Development, 2012.

World Energy Council, among many publications, Survey of Energy Resources, November 2010.

Images

Charbon après lavage by By Apphim (Charbon) [GFDL or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0], via Wikimedia Commons.

Shan sigil by Vincent Ramos (Dessin personnel manuscrit d’un caractère chinois dans une graphie ancienne. Publié sous licence <a href=”/wiki/GFDL” title=”GFDL”>GFDL</a>. Cette image est aussi présente dans mon site web, sous copyright).

Occupy, Los Indignados: towards radicalization?

The polarisation that can be observed in recent elections in 2012, notably in Greece and in France for the first round of the Presidential elections, appears to also take place within some of the current Opposition Movements existing outside the classical party system. Those movements, Occupy and Democracia Real Ya! – also known as Los Indignados, born out of Spain’s mobilisation last year, are showing their continuing presence, notably with various protests staged on May Day, then between 12 and 15 May, more or less followed according to cities and countries.

A beginning of radicalization would, so far, touch more specifically the American Occupy movement. Already, in February and March, it gave rise to a debate on the tactics that should be used, as analysed by Stuart Jeanne Bramhall in “Debating Violence in the Occupy Movement.”

In May 2012, Occupy still displays weak signals of rising tension, which could lead to escalation. Those signs can be seen, for example, in the acronym chosen to prepare for May Day and then used on social networks such as Twitter: #M1GS (May 1st Global Strike), also reads MIGS, which refers to the Soviet and then Russian fighter aircraft, and thus carries with it a symbolism referring to war and opposition to the American and allies governments during the Cold War.

As shown in the gallery below (click on each thumbnail to see the image), some of the pictures surrounding M1GS, compared with the images used the year before, notably for the birth of the Spanish Movement, or with the more European 12M-15M 2012 protests, also tend to signal that a radicalization is happening. M1GS uses notably the colour red, as well as sometimes a more offensive symbolism. All transmit an aggressive feeling. 12M-15M continues to favour as colours yellow and black, which tends to warn of danger ahead and thus suggests caution. However, one can also find one call for 15M that adopts a red background and the symbolism of a fist.

Will radicalization spread and intensify? This will depend upon the interactions with the existing political authorities and, in a related way, upon the capability of the movements to obtain concrete results. It is definitely an issue that needs to be monitored in the coming months.

——

Images

“12 M Puerta del Sol Aerial” in Jerome Roos On May 13, 2012 “#12mGlobal Indignados take back square on movement’s anniversary Madrid,” DRY International.

“Polish MiG-29 (version 9.12A) from the base in Królewo Malborskie near Malbork” by Łukasz Golowanow (website Konflikty.pl), via Wikimedia Commons.

2212 EVT – Scenario 2 – Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old

Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Everstate is plagued by a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity, with a related creeping appropriation of resources while the strength of central public power weakens to the profit of various elite groups. An outdated world-view that promotes misunderstanding, disconnect and thus inadequate actions presides to its destiny. Henceforth, the political authorities are increasingly unable to deliver the security citizens seek. Risks to the legitimacy of the whole system increases. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something. Of the three potential scenarios or stories that …

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The Iran Crisis Sigils

The Iran Crisis Sigils is part of The Sigils, a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various issues relevant to the security of societies, polities, nations and citizens.

The aim of the Iran Crisis Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on tensions with Iran and related geopolitical issues.

We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Iran crisis Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023.

Image: From Wikimedia Commons – Coat of arms of Iran. “Allah” in artistically stylized Arabic letters. The emblem is also an overlaid rendering of La Ilaha Illa Allah (There is only one God and that is God). The exact shape of the emblem and an algorithmic ruler-and-compass construction is described in the national Iranian standard at ISIRI 1 www.isiri.org. The emblem was designed by Hamid Nadimi, and was officially approved by Ayatollah Khomeini on May 9, 1980.

2218 – 2223 EVT – A Polity in Shambles (Mamominarch)

Post updated 10 May 2012. Last weeks’ summary: In 2012 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to foresee the future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario, Everstate’s governing bodies implement the Mamominarch programme of drastic reduction of state’s spending over five years through devolution, privatisation and outsourcing. By 2018 EVT, besides a generalised rising insecurity for most Everstatans, the now fragile state cannot efficiently manage the complex catastrophes that start hitting Everstate in May. Further pressures and perceptions of the way they are answered lead to radicalisation and polarisation along three lines: local independence with direct membership to the Regional Union – with now a battle over Trueland …

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The Sigils

Sigils

The Sigils are designed as a series of daily scans exploring the horizon for weak (and less weak) signals related to various issues relevant to geopolitical risks and uncertainties.

Such scans can be of interest to all actors, namely citizens, the corporate sector, NGOs and domestic and international political authorities.

We selected a couple of issues that were of interest both in terms of geopolitical stakes and in terms of strategic foresight and warning to create these daily scans.

The Extreme Environments Sigils:

The Energy Sigils:

You can commission the Red Team Analysis Society to create specific scans for your own needs. In that case, please contact us.

The original Sigils used Paper.Li as curation platform, as The Weekly. However, compared with the latter, they were raw material, i.e. not edited. In April 2023 Paper.li stopped its activities and the complimentary Sigils were stopped.

 

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