War in Ukraine, Megadrought and the Coming Global Food Crisis – Anthropocene Wars (3)

The War in Ukraine as a Perfect Storm The war in Ukraine triggers a global whirlwind involving energy and food crisis. The latter is quite singular, because it combines the consequences of the war on the global agricultural system with massive extreme weather events, such as the U.S. midwestern megadrought. War as global disruption Indeed, …

Advanced Training in Early Warning Systems & Indicators – ESFSI in Tunisia

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) At the end of March 2022, the Ecole Supérieure des Forces de Sécurité Intérieure (ESFSI) of the Home Ministry of Tunisia organised its fourth intensive training on early warning systems & indicators. It is part of its programme on the “management of social conflict.” This time, we set up with the management …

Nuclear Battlefields in Ukraine – Anthropocene Wars (2)

A nuclear theatre of operations (Art Direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Image: Recognize Productions via Pexels). On 24 February 2022, at the very start of Russian offensive against Ukraine, after a two days battle, the Russian forces took over the Chernobyl power plant, where the historic nuclear accident occurred in 1986 (Mary Kekatos, “Seizure of Chernobyl plant …

The East Seas Security Sigils

The aim of the East Seas Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on security in the East Seas, as explained below. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better East Seas Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. A brief presentation The East …

From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning

Some keys to understand Chinese perceptions on the Diaoyu Islands, and to assess the potential evolution of its position in the future.

A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more

What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for …
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The Water Sigils

The aim of the Water Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on water security. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Water Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various …

China, With or Against Russia?

(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is profoundly changing the international order. The shock is notably hard for countries such as the members of the European Union, who thought they would be at peace for ever. Suddenly, these countries, their economic actors and their citizens rediscover war and the …

Resources to Follow the War in Ukraine

(Last updated 28 Feb 22 20:50 CET: added access to UN General Assembly Live) At 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special military operation”. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack. What is happening on the ground? How are events unfolding? How is the …

A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management

Question: “What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?”
Answer: For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future.
It answers a question about the future.
It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question….

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