The aim of the East Seas Security Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on security in the East Seas, as explained below. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better East Seas Security Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. A brief presentation The East …
Category Archives: Featured
From the Diaoyu Islands, with Warning
Some keys to understand Chinese perceptions on the Diaoyu Islands, and to assess the potential evolution of its position in the future.
A FAQ on Geopolitics, Strategic Foresight, Early Warning… and more
What is strategic foresight?Strategic Foresight is a process and a methodology of analysis. It seeks to anticipate the future, and to reduce the potential for …
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The Water Sigils
The aim of the Water Sigils is to be a daily scan focusing on water security. We are currently investigating new AI ways to deliver an even better Water Sigils. The original complimentary version ran from May 2012 to April 2023. The Sigils are a series of scans exploring the horizon for weak signals related to various …
China, With or Against Russia?
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is profoundly changing the international order. The shock is notably hard for countries such as the members of the European Union, who thought they would be at peace for ever. Suddenly, these countries, their economic actors and their citizens rediscover war and the …
Resources to Follow the War in Ukraine
(Last updated 28 Feb 22 20:50 CET: added access to UN General Assembly Live) At 3:00 GMT Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed it a “special military operation”. Immediately, part of the international community condemned this attack. What is happening on the ground? How are events unfolding? How is the …
A Short FAQ on Scenarios for Strategic Foresight, Early Warning and Risk Management
Question: “What is a scenario for strategic foresight, early warning and risk management?”
Answer: For strategic foresight, early warning, risk management or any anticipatory methodology, a scenario is a fictionalized narrative set at a specific time in the future.
It answers a question about the future.
It is grounded in a detailed analysis of this question….
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Multiplicating Crises: Strategic Surprises or Strategic Shocks?
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli using a photograph created by Pete Linforth) Over the last decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and accelerated rather than receded. They continue to do so. Most actors, from governments and international organisations to businesses through citizens seem to be constantly and increasingly surprised by events they fail to anticipate, and thus for which …
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Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration – Anthropocene Wars (1)
(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Belarus borders: theatre of operations Since July 2021, the Belarusian government literally projects migrants to the borders of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Those people come from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, Morocco, the Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Venezuela (Yuras Karmanau, “Explainer: What’s behind the Belarus-Poland border crisis ?”, …
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Russia vs the U.S. – The OSCE Istanbul Document
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Within the context of the heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., Russia, on 1st February 2022, through its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov invokes an article of a 1999 agreement (Reuters, 1 February 2022). What is is this agreement and which article does Lavrov use? The 1999 agreement is actually the …
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