Towards climate civil wars? “Climate wars” will not “only” be interstate wars. In our precedent article, we saw that current conflicts are integrating climate related tensions. This process is literally transforming certain conflicts into “proto-climate wars” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “What are Climate Wars ?”, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 November 2021). This transformation follows the …
Category Archives: Strategic Foresight and Early Warning Issues
Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – The Hidden Pandemic
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) More than 110 million people have experienced or still suffer from Long COVID since the start of the pandemic (Chen Chen et al., full references and detail of calculation below). This is the number that follows from the findings of a study systematically reviewing the research done on Long COVID until …
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The Fifth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lethality
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) As the global fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has now started, should we be worried about it? How lethal will it be? This article and the next will focus on direct health-related impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic fifth wave. Indeed, these effects are those that determine all others. Here, we …
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What are Climate Wars?
As climate change intensifies, a major issue is to understand how rapidly changing geophysics and war are intertwined. Since 2013, at the Red Team Analysis Society we study the way climate change, the military and geopolitics interact (Climate change security, The Red Team Analysis Society). Since then, things have changed dramatically. The complex relationship between …
Towards a Covid-19 Fifth Wave
Are we at the beginning of a fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic? If yes, is it dangerous and should we be worried about it? Alternatively, is the COVID-19 pandemic over? Has the COVID-19 pandemic evolved towards an endemic illness that is not more dangerous than the seasonal flu? Meanwhile, have we just accepted COVID-19 …
The Military and the “Climate Blowback” – Summer 2021 (1)
The impacts of climate change are intensifying. Some of these are the multiplying extreme weather events, such as mega wildfires and giant floods. The intensity and the scale of these events are now so important threatening for infrastructures, ecosystems and human life, that they entail a growing mobilisation of military forces. Thus, we need to …
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China’s Perception of U.S. International Politics
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) The relationships between the two superpowers, the U.S. and China, dominate the international world. Here, we look at the way China perceives American foreign relations. How the U.S. perceives China and how much the former sees the latter as a threat, what this will entail in terms of future American actions …
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When Seas and Maps Impact Geostrategy and the Future
Sovereign territory is key for power and for activities. This principle will most probably remain more or less so in the foreseeable future. Thus, what is the territory over which each state is sovereign? What is the size of each of these territories? And where are these territories located? How does the geographical international world …
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Antarctic China (2) – China’s Planetary Game
(Art design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) A planetary Go game: Most Western geopolitical observers seem to be unable to see the planetary scale strategy that China deploys in the Antarctic (Alexander B. Gray, “China’s Next Geopolitical Goal: Dominate Antarctica”, The National Interest, 20 March 2021). The roots of this “very Great Game” run deep in Chinese history and …
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The Ultimate Key Technologies of the Future (3) – Extreme Environments
This third article is the last part of our “equation” to identify the key technologies of the future. We started, with the first article, in establishing that solely making laundry lists of new technologies was insufficient to identify the key technologies of the future. We needed more: a system explaining the logic behind the success …
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