Search results for: Russia

Signal: The Kurdish-led SDF Defeats the Islamic State in Raqqa

Impact on Issues ? ➄ Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding the Federation of Northern Syria… and Turkey (critical uncertainty) ➚➚ ➃  Turkey acting against the Federation of Northern Syria➚  ? ➃ Iran influence (uncertainty regarding policy)➚ ➃ Russia influence trial➚ ➃ U.S. influence trial➚ ? ➃ Gulf Countries (uncertainty regarding policy)? Western NGOs and then businesses prospects in Syria➚ ? ➄ Syrian future  (high uncertainty)➚ ? ➃ Middle East Tension (high uncertainty) ➘ ➄ The Islamic State direct short term threat in Mesopotamia➘ ➄ Perception of the Islamic State threat➘➙ ➄ Global long term Islamic State threat ➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions On 17 October, The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that the city of Raqqa had been recaptured from the Islamic State, even though fighting continued in near-by surrounding areas.Considering the strategic and symbolic importance of Raqqa for most players, …

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Signals: Kurd Military Command on Kirkuk; Iran again…

Impact on Issues ➚➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension➚➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum➘ Russia Influence➘ U.S. influence – ➙ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) The Iraqi attack on Peshmergas-controlled Kirkuk continued on 16 October and, as a result Iraqis forces, allegedly according to Kurds backed by Iranian Quds (special forces of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – IRGC), seized the city.The Kurds retreated rather than fought, which led to mutual accusations between the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to have abandoned the city. Internecine struggle thus continues to plague Kurdish actions and capacity to attain objectives.For previous and other signals check theHorizon …

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Signals: Towards War In Iraq between Kurds and Iraqis, Iran…

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➃  /➄ Iraq vs Kurds – ➚ ➄ Syria  – ➚ ➃ Middle East Tension➚  Iran Iraqi and regional influence➚ Russia, U.S., Gulf Countries Conundrum➘ Russia Influence➘ U.S. influence – ➚ U.S.weight (unwilling? influence) Around Kirkuk, skirmishes have now taken place in the early hours of Monday 16 October 2017 between Iraqis troops and Hashd al-Shaabi forces (Popular Mobilization Forces – Shiite militias) on the one hand, Peshmergas from both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Meanwhile, civilians from Kirkuk would be ready to fight against Iraqi troops and would be joined, according to Kurdish Peshmergas, by civilians from Erbil, Duhok and Sulaimani. Tension or contradicting orders would also have taken place between different Peshmergas units. Contradicting statements …

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Signal: North Korea Discussed as an Issue among NATO Ambassadors…

Impact on Issues ➚ Activation of NATO Art. 5 by the U.S. (Still not started, seen as far away, yet issue on the agenda)  ➚ ➁ NATO military involvement in North Korea, thus EU and European states’ military entanglement in North Korea ➚  ➁  World War ➘ Independent European Common Foreign and Security Policy – ➘ Independent European Member …

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Signal: A View from China – its Rising Arms Exports

Impact on Issues ➚ ➀ ➁ China-U.S. Tension – ➚ Chinese influence (including OBOR/New Silk Road) – ➘ U.S. influence – ➘ USD supremacy – Uncertainty: American East Asian strategic presence and East Asian stability China has become the third larger exporter of arms in the world, even though it is still far behind the U.S. and Russia. It …

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Sources of American Decline… and Power – The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

The question of a U.S. decline is increasingly on the agenda as signals seem to pile up to indicate a relative loss of power status. The last instance of such dynamics at play is the 4 to 8 October 2017 state visit to Russia of King Salman Saudi Arabia King Salman, a long-standing close ally of …

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Signal: Turkey about to close Iraq border and air space – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq – ➙ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum Turkey President Erdogan declaration would tend to confirm the harsh and unremitting position that Turkey, Iran and Iraq have been taking since the beginning on the issue of Iraqi Kurds independence. However, considering the Kurds will and resolve, as well as their recent history of being a major actor in the war against the Islamic State, and highly probable feeling of being thus treated unfairly, a triple blockade is highly unlikely to stabilize the situation.On the contrary,  we may expect that the Iraqi Kurds will not relent but fight to see the results of the referendum implemented and their independence achieved. War would …

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Signal: Iran Turkey Boost Military Ties – Iraq Kurds Independence

Impact on Issues ➚➚ ➁ Gulf Crisis – ➚ ➀ Russia Conundrum – ➚➚ ➄ Syria & Iraq The aftermath of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq continues to send shock waves, as the Kurds persist in wanting their independence while Iraq and their neighbours, home to Kurdish communities refuse this possibility.Besides impacting the Gulf crisis and obviously the war in Iraq and Syria, Russia is also faced with a severe conundrum. Russia has interests in keeping influence and good relationships with all actors. However a factor that is hardly considered but that may trump all others is the crucial need Russia has to uphold the norm of self-determination and thus to recognise the Kurdish referendum result.. because of Crimea, and …

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Towards the End of the US Dollar Supremacy? Global Currency Fundamentals

Editor’s note: We have been monitoring “behind the scenes” the US Dollar Supremacy and the challenges it faces over the last couple of years. Indications show that it is now time to move towards strategic foresight analysis of the issue. This series results from this need and our in-depth analysis will constitute the building blocks for scenario …

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Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council

The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each …

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