The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 14 January 2021

This is the 14 January 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect weak – and less weak – signals. These point to new, emerging, escalating or stabilising problems. As a result, they indicate how trends or dynamics evolve. The 14 January 2021 …

The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 7 January 2021

This is the 7 January 2021 issue of our weekly scan for political and geopolitical risks (open access). And with the first Weekly of the year, we wish you a Happy – and Safe – New Year 2021! This is a year that will very likely be intense. Using horizon scanning, each week, we collect …

Global Apocalypse Now, the California Way

Design: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Facing Apocalypse The Apocalypse literally means “the Book of Revelation”. From a theological as well as heuristic point of view, it means that the Apocalypse is the moment in history when entire societies are forced to lift the veils of illusions. Doing so, the revelation of the real state of things emerges, …

Chimerica 3: The geopolitics of the U.S.-China turbo-recession

The American consumer is turning into a self-conscious, active, geopolitical and strategic actor on the world stage. This appears through its new and very negative attitude towards purchasing “made in China” goods (Brendan Murray, “Americans give the Made-in-China the cold shoulder”, Bloomberg, 17 May 2020). Towards the great decoupling? As it happens, for the last …

Impacts of Chinese Baidu new no-code tool to build AI-programs – Signal

Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ➚➚ Accelerating expansion of AI ➚➚ Accelerating emergence of the AI-world ➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines ➚ Escalating AI-power race notably between the U.S. and China. ➚ Rising challenge for the rest of the world to catch up ➚ China  influence and capability in terms …

High Performance Computing Race and Power – Artificial Intelligence, Computing Power and Geopolitics (3)

This article explores three major challenges actors face when defining and carrying out their policies and answers in terms of high performance computing power (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI), considering the political and geopolitical consequences of the feedback relationship linking AI in its Deep Learning component and computing power – hardware – or rather HPC. …

Signals: China Planetary 3D Strategy, Deep Sea Resources in the South China Sea

The April and May 2018 Chinese successful deep sea explorations in the South China Sea lead to novel future possibilities, including a rising uncertainty in the security and resource sectors for all actors, states and companies alike, involving a complete redrawing of the influence map, of the capabilities needed and relatedly of the strategies and policies to develop and implement.

When AI Started Creating AI – Artificial Intelligence and Computing Power

2018 could be the year when the U.S. takes back the lead over China with the most powerful supercomputer in the world. It could be the year when the AI-power war over computing power started. 2017 is the year when Artificial Intelligence started creating Artificial Intelligence (AI). It is the year when China overtook the US …

Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy

In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, “The Rise of the Renminbi” being one of them. With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading …

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Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy

With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …

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