Impact on Issues and Uncertainties ? Degree of influence of Russia on Turkey compared with Turkey’s perception of threat related to a Kurdish polity on its southern flank (near future critical uncertainty)? Finding a compromise on Hezbollah and Iran presence or withdrawal from a future peaceful Syria (near future critical uncertainty) ? Are the root causes that allowed the Islamic State to rise in the region addressed (medium to longer term critical uncertainty)? ➚ ➄ to ➂ Constructive peace for Syria➚ Creation of a Federal Syria➚ ➃ to ➂ Survival of the Kurdish-led Federation of Northern Syria➘ ➃ to ➂ Middle East Tension ➚ ➃ Turkey’s perception of threat➙ Threat to Israel ➚➚ ➃ Russia influence➙ ➃ U.S. influence trial – likely leading to ➙➘ U.S. influence➚ ? ➁ U.S. Russia global tensions ? Global spread “under cover” of Jihadism➚ ? Strengthening of al-Qaeda➙ ? Resilience of Islamic …
Challenges Looming over the Petrodollar System
Editor’s note: China has planned to launch a derivatives contract or crude oil futures contract at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) denominated in Yuan for the last two years. The contract should initially have started at the end of 2015, then, in September 2016 it was again delayed by one year (Henry Sanderson, Financial Times, 15 September 2016). The contract would now be launched by the end of 2017 (RT, 25 October 2017). Assuming this indeed finally takes place, are we about to witness a challenge to the USD supremacy, all the more so that it is related to oil? What is the petrodollar system that could be thus defied? How does that “petrodollar system” relates to the overall USD supremacy? Which are the actors involved in this specific possible change? What is China’s role? These are some of the questions addressed here.
This article focuses mainly on the petrodollar system, which is at the heart of the U.S. dollar supremacy, and on the challenges it meets. Meanwhile, these trials start outlining potential futures for the international currency system. Continue reading “Challenges Looming over the Petrodollar System”
Signals: China enters the Fray in the Middle East; Israel Unprecedented Interview; Saudi Arabia…
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
? U.S. decisions and actions regarding the region and notably Syria; Turkey’s perceptions and consequent actions regarding the region and notably the Peace settlement in Syria; Hezbollah’s perception of threat to survival (uncertainties)
➙ (compared with previous related signal) ➃ (conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat
➘ Lebanon destabilisation
➘ (according to Israel’s military interview) Hezbollah influence in Lebanon
➘ ➃ Conflict in Yemen: prospects for beginning of deconfliction
➘ War in Syria
➚ Tough diplomatic negotiations for peace in Syria
➙ (compared with previous related signal) Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean Sea
➙ (compared with previous related signal) Iran influence
➘ further expansion of Iranian influence (assuming Iran wants it)
➙ (compared with previous related signal) Threat to Israel
➘➘ ➃ (compared with previous related signal) Middle East Tension
➚ China influence in the region and globally
➙ ? (compared with previous related signal) Russia influence
➙ ? (compared with previous related signal) U.S. influence
➙ (compared with previous related signal) France influence
A new state of play is emerging in the Middle East, which redraws the regional web of influence, following the military victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the concurrent and related negotiations for the end of the war in Syria. At the global level, the current jockeying taking place in the Middle East and its result will also have consequences as it impacts perceptions of global players, as well as influence and thus capability.
As of mid-November 2017, Iran appears as having achieved its objective to establish a Shia crescent from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, Iran now appears as having succeeded in becoming a major influential regional power, if not the most influential. Russia has asserted its position as major power in the Middle East, while the United States has seen its influence being winnowed away, notably in Iraq, a process started under the Obama presidency.
The situation is still evolving as the various countries of the region, here Saudi Arabia and Israel, act to at minima see their interests considered and protected, and at best to try turning the current state of play to their advantage. Meanwhile, China, as rising global major if not super power also enters the fray.
In this framework, on 16 November 2017, three significant “diplomatic events” took place (see sources below).
First Chinese President Xi Jinping and King Salman of Saudi Arabia discussed over the phone. Xi Jinping stressed that “China’s determination to deepen strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia will not waver, no matter how the international and regional situation alters”. The Chinese President also added that “China supports Saudi Arabia’s efforts to safeguard national sovereignty and realize greater development.” Considering China’s good relations with Iran, this is a strong Chinese statement that assures Saudi Arabia that China will not take side even though the regional situation were to escalate further. The Chinese statement may even be read as a warning to Iran not to threaten Saudi Arabia’s national sovereignty. In that, China may be seen as a stabilizing actor in the region. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are indeed crucial to China, not only in the framework of its Belt and Road initiative, but also and relatedly as energy suppliers, to say nothing of the highly probable willingness to dethrone the USD as the supreme global currency (see forthcoming 20 November article on the Petrodollars system).
Meanwhile, Israeli chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot gave “an unprecedented interview to Saudi newspaper” Elaph (Haaretz see below). Unsurprisingly, Eisenkot labelled there Iran the “real and largest threat to the region”, stressed that “Iran seeks to take control of the Middle East, creating a Shi’ite crescent from Lebanon to Iran and then from the [Persian] Gulf to the Red Sea”, and that “We must prevent this from happening”. He welcomed the new Trump Presidency’s policy in the region, underlining that “The United States is trying to strengthen and support the moderate Sunni axis in the region without bringing in [American] troops or fighting on the ground.”
Practically, Eisenkot stated that “We [Israel] are willing to exchange information with moderate Arab countries, including intelligence information in order to deal with Iran.”
Yet, he also set limits to what Israel was willing to do. Israel did not intent to initiate a conflict in Lebanon against the Hezbollah, while he “cautioned … that local flare-ups could “lead to a broad strategic conflict.” He then pointed out a weakening of the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Then, Eisenkot re-emphasised that Israel had a “long-term policy not to get involved in the Syrian conflict”… as long as there was no “attempt to harm our Druze brothers”. He reiterated Israel’s demands regarding the need for the Hezbollah and Iran to leave Syria, stressing that “we will not accept Iranian consolidation in Syria in general, and their concentration west of the Damascus – Sweida Road [about 50 kilometers from the Israeli border on the Golan Heights]. We will not allow any Iranian presence, we have warned them against building factories or military bases and we will not allow it.”
Eisenkot statements are, among others, an official and public response to the Saudi highly possible intent to stop Iran and act against the Hezbollah, as expressed by Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir in an interview with Reuter. There, Jubeir stressed that “(The Iranians) are the ones who are acting in an aggressive manner. We are reacting to that aggression and saying: ‘Enough is enough. We’re not going to let you do this anymore’.” He added, as summarized by Reuters, that “Saudi Arabia was consulting its allies about what leverage to use against Lebanese Shi‘ite group Hezbollah — an Iranian ally — to end its dominance in the small Mediterranean nation and intervention in other countries.”
Lebanon, considering Israel’s statement, however, does not appear as a realistic theatre of operations to stop or check Iran’s influence. Israel even seems to suggest a kind of laissez-faire, that would appease the situation there. If the Saudis pay heed to Israel, considering too previous developments in the Lebanese crisis (see previous signal), as Iran did not appear to have so far poured oil on the fire, it is likely that the situation will settle in Lebanon.
In Syria, considering the state of play on the ground (see map below), it continues to be difficult to see “anti-Iranian influence” actions other than tough peace negotiations being endeavoured, except if the U.S. were willing to change enemy, which does not appear as likely. Yet not likely does not mean impossible.
Remains Yemen, where China’s position added to Israel willingness to share information could act as a stabilising influence on the conflict, without, of course, forgetting to consider the willingness of the local actors.
Thus what seems to be emerging is a stabilizing Middle East, with a stronger Iranian influence, which would be kept in check by global powers.
Potential feeling of threats and dangers to survival felt by the Hezbollah must also be closely monitored as they may engender further instability.
The way the Syrian conflict will be settled and if it is at all settled, as Turkey’s interest must also not be forgotten, will probably prove key.
Xi commits unwavering cooperation in phone call with Saudi king Salman – Global Times
China’s determination to deepen strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia will not waver, no matter how the international and regional situation alters, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in his phone conversation with the ruler Thursday.
Israeli military chief gives unprecedented interview to Saudi media: ‘Iran is biggest threat to Mideast’
In an unprecedented move, a Saudi newspaper on Thursday published an interview with the Israeli military chief, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. This is the first time that an Israeli chief of staff is interviewed by a media outlet in the kingdom, which doesn’t have diplomatic ties with Israel.
Saudi foreign minister tells Iran: “enough is enough”
RIYADH (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir said on Thursday the kingdom’s actions in the Middle East were a response to what he called Iranian aggression, and hinted at future action against Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Long-standing arch-rivals, Riyadh and Tehran are waging a contest for power on several fronts across the region, notably in Yemen and Lebanon.
null
null
Signals: China World Domination in Supercomputers and Towards Lead in Artificial Intelligence
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
? How threatening will the leadership of China in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) be perceived? What would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? (Critical uncertainties)
➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI with related hardware capabilities (notably supercomputers) haves and have-nots
➘ U.S. ability to stem the declining tide in terms of AI and supercomputers
➚➚ China domination in supercomputing power
➚➚ China influence
➚➚ China rise to top major power status
➘➘ U.S. decline in supercomputing power
➘ U.S. influence
➚➚ US decline from sole superpower to major power status
➚ Escalating Tension U.S. – China
As we start our new section on Artificial Intelligence (AI), politics and geopolitics for the future, signals regarding the revolution at work pile up. China certainly appears to be leading the way in that matter.
First, China dominates again the new issue (13 Nov 2017) of the biannual list of the world’s fastest supercomputers. It not only takes “the top two seats, but [is] also pulling ahead of the United States in the sheer number of systems being used… China’s Sunway TaihuLight maintains the lead as the No. 1 system for the fourth time, with a performance of 93.01 petaflops.”
For previous and other signals check the
China leads now with 202 ranked supercomputer systems, while the U.S. only has 143 systems. Six months ago, the U.S. led with 169 supercomputers, China only having 160. The other countries rank far behind: “Japan in third place with 35, followed by Germany with 20, France with 18, and the UK with 15” (Top500).
This shows not only China’s ability to lead in supercomputers, but also to remain at the top, meanwhile also increasing the sheer mass of operational Chinese supercomputers. Meanwhile, the U.S. is not only falling behind in relative terms, but also in absolute ones.
This would tend to signal an American inability – which is not fateful but that seems to be settling in – of the U.S. to stem a decline in supercomputing and AI terms, which was one of the critical uncertainties we indicated previously.
Related
The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution
Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025
The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea
This hardware development is all the more important considering its linkage to AI, as the power of supercomputers is necessary for the development of AI, notably in its deep-learning component with its massive use of big data.
In the field of AI, Wang Yongdong, vice president of Microsoft’s Asia-Pacific R&D Group explained on 8 November at the AI World 2017 in Beijing that “three factors – massive data, cloud computing and strong algorithms – have led to the rise of AI technologies, particularly in China.”
Besides, as pointed out (see previous related Signal) by Google Alphabet CEO, China also benefits from strong planning and support given by the state to the development of AI. To this must also be notably added the efforts of the three “Internet giant companies: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent”, as well as the sheer number of the Chinese population, when big data are a crucial element. These are huge assets for China in terms of AI.
The weaker points that could derail or slow China’s effort to dominate the AI world stage, according to Chen Qingqing (Global Times) are a weaker AI Chinese ecosystem (compared with the U.S.), as well as potentially lagging behind in “developing open-source software as well as general chips”. “Chinese scientists would be too eager to turn their research into profits”, as pointed out by Micree Zhan, CEO of Beijing-based custom chip manufacturer Bitmain.
We should note that, considering the platform where this AI article is published – i.e. Global Times, the international newspaper of the very official People’s Daily – denunciation of a too profit-minded spirit that could go against state policy is a strong signal given to the AI community to change their ways.
Should China overcome its weaknesses, it is well on its way to indeed dominate in both supercomputing power and AI, soon becoming the top major power of a world perceived through the lenses of AI haves and have-nots (see The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution).
The potential consequences remain still highly and critical uncertainties. Among these – but far from being limited to it – the U.S. potential inability to accept the new technological world order (see The Paradox of U.S. Decline) increases the odds to see escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, despite the successful friendly bilateral summit of November 2017.
China dominates list of world’s top supercomputers again – Global Times
Once again, China dominated a new list of the world’s fastest supercomputers, not only taking the top two seats, but also pulling ahead of the United States in the sheer number of systems being used.
50th Anniversary | TOP500 Supercomputer Sites
The eighth TOP500 list was topped by a 2,048 processor CP-PAC built by Hitachi and installed at the Center for Computional Science at the University of Tsukuba in Japan. The system, which was a non-commercial extension of the Hitachi SR2201, achieved 368.20 gigaflops in running the Linpack benchmark.
2017 a key year for China’s AI industry as it begins to outperform the US in tech breakthroughs – Global Times
China and the US are now the two world leaders in pursuing AI development. 2017 in particular has been a key year for China’s AI industry, as more and more domestic companies have been making technological breakthroughs within the sector and as the application of AI has been penetrating all aspects of daily life in China.
AI World 2017世界人工智能大会
Executive President, President of Consumer Business Group of iFlytek
Signal: Libya’s Largest Tribe Poses Challenge for a Peaceful Solution
Impact on Issues
➙ ➀ / ➄ Hindrance to effective peace talks / Continued war in Libya
Recent statements by the elders of the Warfalla tribe highlight an underlying challenge to Libyan peace talks—tribalism. Under the umbrellas of the rival Libyan governments lie a host of tribes that are simultaneously competing for influence and power.
The Warfalla are considered Libya’s largest tribe with an estimated 1 to 1.5 million of the total population of 6 million people. The tribe’s elders recently iterated that any UN solution for Libya’s civil war would require the inclusiveness of the Warfalla—considering it comprises a large portion of the population.
“We are represented in all regions. If the U.N. wants a solution for Libya you need to talk (to us) the tribes.”
They claim that the UN has not asked them to be involved in the dialogue, to which a UN official pointed out that at least two Warfalla delegates participated in the latest peace talks in Tunisia. The elders dismissed this claim by noting that they “did not feel represented by them.”
The Warfalla leaders say they do not support the rival governments and would like to see peace talks take place within Libya and led by Libyans.
Considering the size and influence of the Warfalla’s confederation of tribes, we may wonder if the United Nations and other external actors will better recognize the role of tribalism in a political solution. However, more inclusivity may also cause fallout as rival tribes vie for political influence (as we’ve seen occur historically). For example, the Warfalla and Misrata tribes have a historical hostility towards each other, which could flare up if one sees the other as gaining more influence in a peace solution.
As external actors attempt to bring about a unified peace agreement, it will be interesting to see how they will measure success—will an agreement simply between the rival governments constitute success, or will an agreement supported by the rival governments and the majority of Libyan tribes define the peace solution?
Hilltop tribe’s bitterness a challenge for Libya peace effort
BANI WALID, Libya (Reuters) – Elders of a powerful tribe that defended the regime of former leader Muammar Gaddafi have a message for the United Nations as it tries to broker peace in Libya – talk to us or you will fail. The U.N.
The Chinese Artificial Intelligence Revolution
The artificial intelligence (AI) world summit took place in Singapore on 3 and 4 October 2017 (The AI summit Singapore). If we follow this global trend of heavy emphasis on AI, we can note the convergence between artificial intelligence and the emergence of “smart cities” in Asia, especially in China (Imran Khan, “Asia is leading the “Smart city” charge, but we’re not there yet”, TechinAsia, January 19 2016). The development of artificial intelligence indeed combines with the current urbanization of the Chinese population.
This “intelligentization” of smart cities in China is induced by the necessity to master urban growth, while adapting urban areas to the emerging energy, water, food, health challenges, through the treatment of big data by artificial intelligence (Jean-Michel Valantin, “China: Towards the digital ecological revolution?”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, October 22, 2017). Reciprocally, the smart urban development is a powerful driver, among others, of the development of artificial intelligence (Linda Poon, “What artificial intelligence reveals about urban change?” City Lab, July 13, 2017).
Related
Signals: China World Domination in Supercomputers and Towards Lead in Artificial Intelligence
Signal: Google Alphabet CEO Thinks China will Lead in AI by 2025
In this article, we shall thus focus upon the combination of artificial intelligence and cities that indeed creates the so-called “smart cities” in China. After having presented how this combination looks like through Chinese examples, we shall explain how this trend is implemented. Finally, we shall see how the development of artificial intelligence within the latest generations of smart cities is disrupting geopolitics through the combination of industry and intelligentization.
Artificial intelligence and smart cities
In China, the urban revolution induced by the acceleration of rural exodus is entwined with the digital and artificial intelligence revolution. This can be seen through the national program of urban development that is transforming “small” (3 million people) and middle size cities (5 million people) into smart cities. The new 95 Chinese smart cities are meant to shelter the coming 250 millions people expected to relocate into towns between the end of 2017 and 2026 (Chris Weller, “Here’s China’s genius plan to move 250 millions people from farms to cities”, Business Insider, 5 August 2015). However, these 95 cities are part of the 500 smart cities that are expected to be developed before the end of 2017 (“Chinese “smart cities” to number 500 before end of 2017“, China Daily, 21-04-2017).
In order to manage the mammoth challenges of these huge cities, artificial intelligence is on the rise. Deep learning is notably the type of AI that is used to make these cities smart. Deep learning is both able to treat the massive flow of data generated by cities and made possible by the exponentially growing flows of these big data – as these very data allow the AI to learn by themselves, through the creation, among other things, of the codes needed to apprehend new kinds of data and issues (Michael Copeland, “What’s the difference between AI, machine learning and deep learning?”, NVIDIA Blog, July 29, 2016).
For example, since 2016, the Hangzhou municipal government has integrated artificial intelligence, notably with “city brain”, which helps improving traffic efficiency through the use of the big data streams generated by a myriad of captors and cameras. The “city brain” project is led the giant technology company Alibaba. This “intelligentization” of traffic management helps reduce traffic jam, improves street surveillance, as well as air pollution for the 9 millions residents of Hangzhou. However, it is only the first step before turning the city into an intelligent and sustainable smart city (Du Yifei, “Hangzhou growing “smarter” thanks to AI technology”, People’s Daily, October 20, 2017).
“Intelligentizing cities”
Through the developing internet of things (IoT), the convergence of “intelligent” infrastructures, of big data management, and of urban artificial intelligence is going to be increasingly important to improve traffic, and thus energy efficiency, air pollution and economic development (Sarah Hsu, “China is investing heavily into Artificial intelligence, and could soon catch up with US”, Forbes, July 3, 2017). The Hangzhou experiment is duplicated in Suzhou, Quzhou and Macao.
Meanwhile, Baidu Inc, the Chinese largest search engine, develops a partnership with the Shanxi province in order to implement “city brain”, which is dedicated to create smart cities in the northern province, while improving coal mining management and chemical treatment (“Baidu partners with Shanxi province to integrate AI with city management”, China Money Network, July 13). As a result, the AI is going to be used to alleviate the use of this energy, which is also responsible of the Chinese “airpocalypse” (Jean-Michel Valantin, “The Arctic, Russia and China’s energy transition”, The Red (Team) Analysis Society, February 2, 2017).
In the meantime, Tencent, another mammoth Chinese technology company, is multiplying partnerships with 14 Chinese provinces and 50 cities to develop and integrate urban artificial intelligences. In the same time, the Hong Kong government is getting ready to implement an artificial intelligence program to tackle the 21st urban challenges, chief among them urban development management and climate change impacts.
When looking closely at this development of artificial intelligence in order to support the management of Chinese cities and at the multiplication of smart cities, we notice both also coincide with the political will aimed at reducing the growth of already clogged Chinese megacities of more than ten million people – such as Beijing (21,5 millions people), Shanghai (25 millions), and the urban areas around them – and of the network of very great cities where more than 5 to 10 million people live. Indeed, the problem is that these very large cities and megalopolis have reached highly dangerous levels of water and air pollution, hence the “airpocalypse”, created by the noxious mix of car fume and coal plants exhaust.
From the intelligentization of Chinese cities to the “smart cars revolution”
This Chinese AI-centred urban development strategy also drives a gigantic urban, technological and industrial revolution, that turns China into a possible world leader in clean energy, in electric and smart cars and in urban development. The development of the new generations of smart car is thus going to be coupled with latest advances in artificial intelligence. As a result, China can position itself in the “middle” of the major trends of globalization. Indeed, smart electric cars are the “new frontier” of the car industry that supports the economy of great economic powers as such as the U.S., Japan, and Germany (Michael Klare, Blood and oil, 2005), while artificial intelligence is the new frontier of industry and the building of the future. The emergence of China as an “electric and smart cars” provider could have massive implications for the industrial and economic development of these countries.
In 2015, in the case of Shanghai, the number of cars grew by more than 13%, reaching the staggering total of 2.5 million cars in a 25 millions people strong megacity. In order to mitigate the impact of the car flow on the atmosphere, the municipal authorities use new “smart street” technologies. For example, the Ningbo-Hangzhou-Shanghai highway, daily used by more than 40 000 cars, is being equipped with a cyber network allowing drivers to pay tolls in advance with their smartphones. This application allows a significant decrease in pollution, because the lines of thousands of cars stopping in front of paybooths are reduced (“Chinese “smart cities” to number 500 before end of 2017”, China Daily, 21 April 2017).
In the meantime, the tech giant Tencent, the creator of WeChat, the enormous Chinese social network, which attracts more than 889 million users per month (“2017 WeChat Users Behavior Report”, China Channel, April 25, 2017), is developing a partnership with the Guangzhou automobile Group to develop smart cars. Baidu is doing the same with the Chinese BYD, Chery and BAIC, while launching Apollo, the open source platform on AI-powered smart cars. Alibaba, the giant of e-commerce, with more than 454 millions users during the first quarter of 2017 (“Number of active buyers across Alibaba’s online shopping properties from 2nd quarter 2012 to 1st quarter 2017 (in millions)”, Statista, The Statistical Portal, 2017) is developing a partnership with the Chinese brand SAIC motors and has already launched the Yunos System, which connects cars to the cloud and internet services. (Charles Clover and Sherry Fei Ju, “Tencent and Guangzhou team up to produce smart cars“, Financial Times, 19 september 2017).
It must be kept in mind that these three Chinese giant tech companies are thus connecting the development of their own services with artificial intelligence development, notably with smart cars development, in the context of the urban, digital and ecological transformation of China. In other terms, “city brains” and “smart cars” are going to become an immense “digital ecosystem” that artificial intelligences are going to manage, thus giving China an imposing technological edge.
This means that artificial intelligence is becoming the common support of the social and urban transformation of China, as well as the ways and means of the transformation of the Chinese urban network into smart cities. It is also a scientific, technological and industrial revolution.
This revolution is going to be based on the new international distribution of power between artificial intelligence-centred countries, and the others.
Indeed, in China, artificial intelligence is creating new social, economic and political conditions. This means that China is using artificial intelligence in order to manage its own social evolution, while becoming a mammoth artificial intelligence great power.
It now remains to be seen how the latest generations of smart cities powered by developing artificial intelligence accompanies the way some countries are getting ready for the economic, industrial and ecological, as well as security and military challenges of the 21 century, and how this urban and artificial intelligence is preparing an immense geopolitical revolution. This revolution is going to be based on the new international distribution of power between artificial intelligence-centred countries, and the others.
About the author: Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris) leads the Environment and Geopolitics Department of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. He is specialised in strategic studies and defence sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy.
Featured image: The Bund by Shizhao This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 1.0 Generic license. Scaled and cropped image.
Signals: Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel…
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
? Unity of Arab States, willingness and capability to support Saudi Arabia, willingness and capability to counter growing Iranian influence, (critical uncertainties)
➚ (➃ conflict in Yemen) Saudi perception of Iranian expansion and resulting threat
➙ ? Lebanon destabilisation
➚ ? Hezbollah influence in Lebanon
➚➚ Iran actualization of the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean Sea
➚ Iran influence
➚ ➃ Middle East Tension
➙ ? Russia influence
➙ ? U.S. influence
➙ ? France influence
➙➚ Threat to Israel
Lebanon (ex?)-Prime Minister Hariri’s flight then resignation from Saudi Arabia has created a host of rumours, as actors try to understand what happened really. Irrespectively of the truth, the Hariri crisis has also generated – or revealed – potential for escalating tensions, centred this time around Lebanon, but that could impact the whole Middle East.
For other as well as previous and related signals check the
The backdrop to the crisis is the redrawing of the influence map in the region as the political and geopolitical situation around Syria and Iraq change, moving from war to peace.
In a nutshell, we see a growing Iranian influence, Iran moving forward with the Shia crescent to the Mediterranean Sea, which is likely perceived as a threat by Saudi Arabia – and most probably Israel. The Saudi Kingdom’s threat perception can only be heightened by the latest explosion of a pipeline in Bahrain, and by a ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-supported Houthi in Yemen, which was destroyed close to Ryadh airport.
Iraq has moved under an Iranian sphere of influence, notably over the past month. If Russia notably would appear to guarantee a relatively future peaceful and non aggressive Syria, Iran will nonetheless have there a friendly future country. Thus, for those actors so inclined, Lebanon may be seen as the last place where to stop Iran’s ability to reach the Mediterranean Sea. There, under Saudi backed Prime Minister Hariri, the Shia Hezbollah had been able to increasingly participate in the Lebanese government. Hence one might conclude that the Saudis moved to derail Hezbollah and thus Iranian influence in Lebanon.
However, if such a move has taken place, it forgot to consider Lebanese wishes for peace and unity, and could actually, as a result, further increase the Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, as long as Iran does not make any vocal declaration nor acts in a way that could be perceived as more threatening by Saudi Arabia.
The international community is multiplying calls to calm and responsible behaviour.
Even though rash moves towards war are always possible, it may be difficult for Saudi Arabia to further escalate much the situation, despite war rhetoric, considering notably the Yemenite military quagmire, hence the need for support from other Arab States and the call for an extraordinary meeting of the Arab League. Saudi – and Arab – trade and aid sanctions on Lebanon could be imagined, yet they could also backfire, lowering Saudi Arabia’s influence in Lebanon. A return to the situation ante in Lebanon, with a shared influence, could be the ideal outcome of the crisis for all actors, including Saudi Arabia. In such a case, Iran would have succeeded in increasing its influence and actualizing its corridor or crescent to the Mediterranean Sea, however it would be kept in check by other powers, considering notably the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia.
In any event, Israel reasserted quickly its willingness and independence in defending its territory, wherever the threat could come from, also most probably to make sure that the promises by various larger powers such as the U.S. and Russia would be kept.
Arab League to meet on Iran at Saudi request: diplomats
The Arab League will hold an extraordinary meeting next Sunday at the request of Saudi Arabia to discuss “violations” committed by Iran in the region, according to a memorandum
In demanding Hariri’s return, Lebanese find rare unity
A country long divided by sectarian conflicts, Lebanon has found a rare point of unity since Saad al-Hariri’s shock resignation as prime minister: Lebanese of all stripes want him to come back from Saudi Arabia and to continue his work as premier.
Hariri warns Lebanon faces Arab sanctions risk, to return in days
Saad al-Hariri warned on Sunday Lebanon was at risk of Gulf Arab sanctions because of the Shi’ite group Hezbollah’s regional meddling and said he would return to Lebanon within days to affirm he had resigned as the country’s prime minister.
Israel signals free hand in Syria as U.S., Russia expand truce
JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel signalled on Sunday that it would keep up military strikes across its frontier with Syria to prevent any encroachment by Iranian-allied forces, even as the United States and Russia try to build up a ceasefire in the area. U.S.
Yemen’s Houthis fire ballistic missile at Riyadh
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a loud explosion in Riyadh, saying they fired a long-range ballistic missile that travelled more than 800km over the border with Saudi Arabia. A spokesman for the rebels told Al Jazeera they launched a Burkan 2-H missile – a Scud-type missile with a range of more than 800km – towards Riyadh late on Saturday.
Signal: Al Qaeda / Islamic State New Front In Western Egypt?
Impact on Issues and Uncertainties
➚ ➃ Reinforced jihadist front in Western Egypt
➚ ➃ Challenges to Egypt as it is squeezed between the Sinai and Western fronts
➚ ➄ Survival of the Islamic State
➚ ➄ Islamic State resurgence in the MENA region, notably Libya
➚ ➄ Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the MENA region
➚ ➄ Reinforced linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa
It would seem according to the array of indications included within the Reuters article below, that we are facing further spill over of the Islamic State conflict, as expected considering the Islamist Jihadist worldview.
For previous and other signals check the
The likely spill over would be taking place in the western part of Egypt, and would originate geographically mainly from Libya and Mesopotamia.
We could have a possible strengthening of al-Qaeda affiliated groups and attacks, as fighters switch allegiance from the Islamic State, because of the latter current disarray in Mesopotamia. However, the Islamic State would also be showing some resurgence in Libya.
Related
Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)
We could witness both a competition for allegiance between the two nexus of jihadist groups and, on the ground, operational “temporary” alliances, as has already happened in the past in Libya.
Linkages with other jihadist groups and theatre of operations in Africa could also come to the fore.
Egypt Western Desert attack exposes front outside Sinai
A deadly attack on the police in Egypt’s Western Desert claimed by a new militant group risks opening up another front for security forces far beyond the remote northern Sinai, where they have battled a stubborn Islamic State insurgency since 2014.
Signal: Rival Libyan Governments Remain at Odds Over Haftar
Impact on Issues
➙ ➀ / ➄ Stalled peace dialogue / Continued war in Libya
On Monday, the head of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) High Council of State—Abdulrahman Swehli—reiterated the continued inability of the GNA and the Council of Representatives (COR) to agree on General Haftar’s role in a united government.
For previous and other signals check the
Swehli said that delegations from both governments have mostly agreed on a new government structure to rule the country until 2018 elections, with the exception of military control and Haftar’s role. “The obstacle now is mostly about the military and how it will be run and who will be in control,” Swehli said. “The other side is very clear that they want to carry on with what they have at the moment, which is not good for our democracy. We are still far away from each other.”
The Council of Representatives based in eastern Libya continues to align itself with General Haftar and demand that he have a leading role in the new Libyan state.
Related
Portal to Strategic Foresight and Warning Analysis for Libya (Scenarios, likelihoods, indicators, state of play)
Haftar’s polarizing politics and tactics remain a principal source of contention between Libya’s various factions, which undermines any dialogue about his potential role in a united government.
Considering Haftar’s pursuit for power, the COR’s refusal to align with a government that excludes him, and the GNA’s demand that he recognize their authority and submit to civilian control, it’s likely that Libya will continue on the path of political separation and conflict.
Libyan rivals split over army leadership: Tripoli parliament head
TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Libyan factions involved in U.N.-brokered peace talks are still far apart on the issue of the leadership of a future national army, the head of one of two rival parliaments said on Monday.
The Paradox of U.S. Decline … and the Tensions with North Korea
This article stresses the paradoxical character of a U.S. decline, and addresses the impossibility for the U.S. to accept its demise as superpower. It applies this framework to the case of the 2017 tensions with North Korea, and deduces a possible future path for the U.S. course of action, as well as possible levers regarding the U.S. stance.
It is the last part of a series of three articles where we examine three dimensions of U.S. decline as perceived – publicly – by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), part of the U.S. Office of The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). In the first part (open access), we sought to understand what the NIC means exactly by a U.S. decline and its onset. The second article focuses on the sources of American decline and power, as identified by the NIC, which also give us indicators to monitor the decline.
Executive Summary
When decline of a country is the issue, the perceptions and resulting actions of the declining power are crucial. Therefore, we focus upon the way the U.S. Intelligence Community (I.C.) addresses the idea and reality of an American decline, through the unclassified (public) version of Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress (GT), the Quadriennal Strategic Foresight report the U.S. I.C. produces for the new President elect.
Because of GT’s uncertainties, ambiguity, indeed a paradox regarding the U.S. decline, results. On the one hand, decline is asserted but with implicit uncertainties, and, on the other hand, ways to revert it are also suggested. Furthermore, the U.S. I.C. also stresses the unique moral place of the U.S. in the world. As a result, the foresight report could finally prompt and support not acceptance of the end of the U.S.-led unipolar world, but the design of a very assertive U.S. policy to regain or keep superpower status, which it is a moral duty to follow.
There is here convergence between the assessment of the U.S. I.C. and the Trump presidency’s “America First” policy. Isolationism is not part of the picture, despite some commentators’ initial hasty conclusions, just after the elections.
When applied to the 2017 North Korean crisis, the framework constructed by GT explains the U.S. stance. It shows it is likely that the crisis has also become a stake in the U.S. struggle for recovering or maintaining its superpower status. As a result, there is a high probability to see the U.S. remaining locked into its escalating stance, even though diplomacy is also used behind the scenes, should a face-saving path forward for the U.S. not be found and used.
Meanwhile, by choosing this direction towards power, the U.S. could lose sight of its very security, which could, in turn, favour and potentially hasten decline, hence the paradox.
Full article 2547 words – approx. 7,5 pages
Access for non-members or for your package is limited.
To continue reading, become a member of The Red (Team) Analysis Society.
If you are already a member, please login (don’t forget to refresh the page).
If you want to read free articles, look for our open access publications.
* It is crucial never to forget the importance of morality in American foreign policy, e.g. Robert W. McElroy, Morality and American Foreign Policy: The Role of Ethics in International Affairs, Princeton University Press, 1992.
——–
About the author: Dr Helene Lavoix, PhD Lond (International Relations), is the Director of The Red (Team) Analysis Society. She is specialised in strategic foresight and warning for national and international security issues.
Featured image by tammyatWTI, Public Domain, Pixabay
——–
Detailed bibliography
Adizes, Ichak Kalderon, “The Decline of the United States“, The WorldPost, Berggruen Institute and The Huffington Post, 15 May 2015
Chinese Foreign Ministry, “Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with German Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Gabriel“, August 15, 2017.
Etzioni, Amitai “Is America Losing Its Credibility with the Middle East?”, 26 October 2017, The National Interest
Harvard Thucydides’s Trap Project
Mohammed Arshad, and Matt Spetalnick, “Exclusive: U.S. pursues direct diplomacy with North Korea despite Trump rejection“, 1 November 2017, Reuters
National Intelligence Council, Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress (GT), Office of the Director of National Intelligence, (for the public version, January 2017).
Reuters, “Merkel suggests Iran-style nuclear talks to end North Korea crisis“, 10 Sept 2017.
Reuters, “Trump’s threat to ‘destroy’ North Korea is wrong: Merkel“, 20 Sept 2017).
Waltz, Kenneth, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.
Read a summary of Waltz’s theory in the Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian, “Political Realism in International Relations“, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2017 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.).
Xinhua, China, Russia, South Korea urge caution with DPRK at UN assembly, Global Times, 22 Sept 2917.
